by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 27, 2022
Time: 1 p.m. ET
Venue: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Bills -3.5
FanDuel: Bills -3.5
BetMGM: Bills -3.5
Caesars: Bills -3.5
Season record
Bills: 2-1
Ravens: 2-1
Are you not entertained by the NFL season one month in? What action we've had, and we're already down to the point where the 1972 Miami Dolphins can start popping champagne. Only three undefeated teams remain heading into the Monday Night matchup and there were upsets galore this past weekend. And of course, nothing was more electric than our own Wayne Root going 8-2-0 in the NFL this past weekend. So many upsets, so many big covers and backdoor covers, what in the world will Week 4 hold? Make sure you're following Wayne and our other champion handicappers to find out what we're rolling with so you may get on the action. You can find all of this on our Best Bets page.
Bills - Ravens preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Bills: lost 21-19 at Dolphins
Ravens: won 37-26 at Patriots
The Buffalo Bills were not expected to go 17-0 but at the very least, we should be surprised that they weren’t the last team from the AFC East to go undefeated. That distinction goes to the Miami Dolphins, who knocked off the Bills 21-19 in Miami on Sunday to go to 3-0. But the Bills are still going to be considered the favorites to win the whole thing, and they should. The Bills played a strong game behind their rugged defense, but they just couldn’t get anything going offensively outside of a heavy passing day from Josh Allen. The projected MVP did throw for 400 yards – it took him 63 attempts to get there – and he also led Buffalo with 47 yards on the ground. Miami, ironically enough, beat the Bills because they forced Allen to throw, as efficient as he was for 400 yards. It was quite the journey, to say the least. But what was also wild was Devin Singletary, a running back, was the leading receiver with 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Isaiah McKenzie was right behind him with 76 yards and the other score. Stefon Diggs was held mostly in check with 74 yards on seven receptions.
The Buffalo Bills were not expected to go 17-0 but at the very least, we should be surprised that they weren’t the last team from the AFC East to go undefeated. That distinction goes to the Miami Dolphins, who knocked off the Bills 21-19 in Miami on Sunday to go to 3-0. But the Bills are still going to be considered the favorites to win the whole thing, and they should. The Bills played a strong game behind their rugged defense, but they just couldn’t get anything going offensively outside of a heavy passing day from Josh Allen. The projected MVP did throw for 400 yards – it took him 63 attempts to get there – and he also led Buffalo with 47 yards on the ground. Miami, ironically enough, beat the Bills because they forced Allen to throw, as efficient as he was for 400 yards. It was quite the journey, to say the least. But what was also wild was Devin Singletary, a running back, was the leading receiver with 9 catches for 78 yards and a touchdown. Isaiah McKenzie was right behind him with 76 yards and the other score. Stefon Diggs was held mostly in check with 74 yards on seven receptions.
"You should win those games," Bills coach Sean McDermott said. "We just didn't take care of the ball enough and come away with some takeaways."
But honestly, if 21 points is going to be the most that the Bills give up all year to this point, it shows how good things are on that side of the ball. The Bills still have plenty of good things to iron out on the offensive side, but they’ve got to establish some balance with the run game. Singletary, for as good as he is, should not be the leading receiver. Diggs was targeted a good amount, but the Dolphins did a good job keeping the short game as the primary course of action.
The Baltimore Ravens have likely enjoyed their brief trip as an honorary member of the AFC East. Through three weeks, that’s all the Ravens have played is teams from the AFC East, capped off with Sunday’s home matchup with Buffalo. After losing a heartbreaker at home to the Dolphins two weeks ago, the Ravens responded with a solid win over the New England Patriots by the tune of 37-26. Lamar Jackson did as Lamar Jackson does by accounting for five touchdowns – four through the air, and the clincher on the ground to put the game out of reach. Jackson threw for 218 yards and ran for 107 to give him 325 on his own. Tight end Mark Andrews led the way in the receiving game with eight catches for 89 yards and two touchdowns.
"No one has to tell me about Lamar Jackson," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "I believed in him from the first day we drafted him."
Hopefully that eventually reciprocates in the Ravens signing him long-term, because performances like that in hostile environments show that the Ravens are only going to go as far as they go. Jackson can’t be tasked with putting on performances like that every week, but they’re going to score a lot of points for as long as the former MVP continues to be that kind of efficient.
"We've got to score, too," he said. "Last week when Miami started scoring and they went on that run I think we put up three points. I wasn't having it. None of us on offense was having that this game."
Prediction
The Bills are angry after how last week ended. I can’t imagine an angry Allen and co. will sit down for this one. And if there’s a defense that can handle Jackson, it might be Buffalo. Bills by 10
Betting trends
Bills are 19-11 ATS as a favorite in their last 30.
Bills are 7-6 ATS in their last 13 as a road favorite.
Ravens are 3-0 ATS in their last three as a home underdog.
Ravens are 16-13 ATS in their last 29 against conference opponents.
Statistical leaders
Bills:
Passing: Josh Allen -- 1,014 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Josh Allen -- 113 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Stefon Diggs -- 344 yards, 4 TD
Defense: Jordan Poyer -- 2 INT
Ravens:
Passing: Lamar Jackson -- 749 yards, 10 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Lamar Jackson -- 243 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Mark Andrews -- 245 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Marcus Williams -- 3 INT
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
