Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks Spread and Trends to watch - 10/19/2021

by James Q

Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks Picks Spread and Trends to watch - 10/19/2021

Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Tuesday, October 19th, 2021 
Venue:  Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Where to Watch: TNT

Opening NCAAF Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Spread: Bucks -1:  O/U: 239.5
BetMGM:  Spread: PK:  O/U: 239
Caesars:  Spread: PK:  O/U: 240

Season Record

Nets: 0-0 (Eastern Conference) finished last season 48-24 for 2nd in the Eastern conference during a shortened season.

Bucks: 0-0 (Eastern Conference) finished last season  46-26 for 3rd in the Eastern Conference during a shortened NBA season.

NBA basketball is back!  The season is opening on exactly the right note with the Nets vs the Bucks.  It is (barring injury) a preview of the Eastern Conference finals this season and a rematch of the Eastern Conference finals matchup from last season.  There is no true underdog.  

The Nets are supplying the early season drama with point guard Kyrie Irving essentially abandoning the team by not getting vaccinated.. However no team in NBA history has been better equipped to lose a superstar point guard.  James Harden is actually a better point guard and because Kyrie flaked on games when healthy last season, the Nets are most likely better off without him.  His absence will crystalize the game plans of Harden running the show and the league’s best scorer Kevin Durant taking the shots.  The Nets signed longtime San Antonio point guards Patty Mills during the offseason… and now it seems like the perfect move.

The Bucks will try to repeat as Champs while dispelling the narrative that they won the 2021 NBA championship because Kyrie Irving and James Harden got hurt…. And still they went to a game 7, foot on the line, close call to beat the Nets.  They have a near perfect star in Giannis, former league MVP, current Finals MVP, unstoppable when going to the rim. Giannis is a full 7 feet tall with a great handle and powerfully strong body.  He excels on taking it to the rim, rebounding, and defense.  He lacks only a consistent outside shot and decent free throw percentage. Last year’s addition of PG Jrue Holiday to Giannis and Middleton finally gave the team a real BIG 3 of stars.  Their health and gritty play from the bench will keep this team a contender and possibly more for years to come.

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Nets vs Bucks Preview and Analysis. 

Preseason NBA basketball is worthless in determining whether a team is any good or not.  For what it is worth, the Nets went 3-1 in the preseason. In fact they already played the Bucks during preseason on October 8th… of course none of the Bucks starters played, which led to few of the Nets starters even touching the court.  The final score was 119-115 with Kevin Durant logging the game’s hi-score mark with 18 pts in limited minutes.  It was basically an extra summer league game for most of the way with rookies and fringe players getting most of the minutes.

The reigning NBA Champs, the Milwaukee Bucks, need absolutely zero from the pre-season.  They refused to risk Giannis Antetokounmpo’s health for extended minutes in worthless games… They held out starters from every game and ended with a 1-4 preseason record.  When Giannis played he looked great with 26 points and 10 rebounds against Dallas on Friday October 15th.  Khris Middleton notched a 25 point game against Utah wednesday October 13th.  The starters are ready to play… the goal is another championship.  The marathon begins on Tuesday.

Offensive Analysis 

The Brooklyn Nets finished the 2020-2021 season 1st in offensive rating.  They scored an average of 118.6 points per game. SF Kevin Durant and PG Kyrie Irving tied for the team’s lead in scoring at 26.9 points per game with SG James Harden close behind, scoring 24.6 ppg with 10.9 assists a game.  The Nets have plenty of offense to fill the gap now that Kyrie is gone.  Caris LaVert got 18.5 points a game off the bench last season (and filled in when Kyrie or Harden were out), but interestingly Caris averaged 23.6 ppg before Kyrie and James arrived to take his minutes.  Joe Harris lights up Brooklyn’s games with a sweet touch on jump shots for 14.1 ppg… he also lost minutes when Kyrie and James arrived.  Brooklyn will be fine on offense without Kyrie.

The Bucks ranked 6th in offensive rating in the NBA in 2020-2021at 117.2 ppg.  Milwaukee’s games also feature a BIg 3 in scoring.  They don’t score quite as much as Brooklyn’s former Big 3, but they hold their own. Giannis averaged 28.1 ppg, Khris Middleton averaged 20.4 ppg, Jrue Holiday averaged 17.7 ppg.  They have a plethora of guards who rotate in and out averaging more than 10 points.. Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, Bryn Forbes. 

Defensive Analysis

The Nets' big weakness is their defense.  It is often said that Defense is saved for the NBA playoffs and increases through June… Well, that wasn’t true of Brooklyn.  They were simply bad on D.  The Nets ranked 23rd in defense (out of 30) 27th in stl, 14th in reb.  They light up NBA TV with offense… and offense alone.  They figure if they can outscore anyone they can beat anyone… which is mathematically correct… but harder to accomplish when you can’t stop good teams.  C will be an experiment this year manned by the aging LaMarcus Aldridge and occasionally Blake Griffin (gasp!).  Look for Rookie C Day’Ron Sharpe out of North Carolina… He was the 29th pick of the draft, but necessity may get him early (career early) looks.

The Bucks finished the 2020-2021 season ranked 10th in the NBA on defense.  Veteran Center Brook Lopez, who came over as a free agent 4 seasons ago from the Los Angeles Lakers, plays a very strong defensive game.  He logs 1.5 blocks per game.  Brook and Giannis provide the muscle that allows Milwaukee to rank 1st in defensive rebounds and 2nd in total rebounds.


Brooklyn Nets vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction 

Our prediction for Tuesday, October 19th is… Bucks 110 - Nets 103

This is Bucks and the under.  The first game of the season will bring a lot of missed shots and the Nets especially will be figuring out who will be expected to produce a bucket.  You will see current betting odds where the Bucks are 1-point favorites and the Nets are 1-point Underdogs and some where the game is a PK… ignore it all and bet Bucks with the Under.

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NCAAF Betting Trends

On Tuesday nights the Nets are 20-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons.
Milwaukee is 23-17 ATS in the first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Injury Report

Brooklyn Nets:  Kyrie Irving OUT.  He is taking a stand for everyone who believes the world is flat... and for college dropouts who think they know more than Doctors who study infectious diseases and vaccinations for entire careers.

Milwaukee:  Bobby Portis Quest.  The Buck’s super sub from the Playoffs and Finals last season is nursing tightness in his hamstring.  

Starting Lineups

Nets:  PG James Harden, SG Joe Harris, SF Bruce Brown, PF Kevin Durant, C LaMarcus Aldridge

Bucks: PG Jrue Holiday, SG Donte DiVincenzo (Quest), SF Khris Middleton, PF Giannis Antetokoumpo, C Brook Lopez


Statistical Leaders 

Points:  Kevin Durant 26.9
Rebounds: Deandre Jordan 7.5  (he is gone)
Assists:  James Harden 10.9
Steals:  Kyrie Irving 1.4 (he is gone, Out?)
Blocks:  Deandre Jordan (he is gone)

Points: Giannis Antetokounmpo 28.1
Rebounds:  Giannis  11
Assists:  Jrue Holiday 6.1 
Steals:  Jrue Holiday 1.6
Blocks:  Brook Lopez  1.5


Nets:  Steve Nash.  Second season for this NBA legend who was hoping on an easy ring last year when he took the job… above anyone except Barkley and Malone… Nash should know there are no easy rings.

Bucks:  Mike Budenholzer in his fourth season with the Bucks… he almost lost the job last year.  TV talking heads were saying “maybe he’s not the guy?”... “Does Giannis need more from a coach?”.... Then he got a ring and a fair amount of job security.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

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