The Brasileirão Série A season started back on March 28 and there have been 6 rounds played already. There are still 32 rounds left in the season so there are plenty of matches still to be played and a lot can change throughout that time. Botafogo is the defending champion from last season, but they were only lurking in the top 6 for the first 14 weeks of the season and did not take charge of the league until Round 22 when they finally took the lead and never gave it up. Now with the league starting to get back into full swing, it is time to see who has the best chance of winning the league title this year.
To Win Outright
Flamengo +150: Flamengo is the team with the best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Flamengo is a force in the league every season and they are usually one of the big favorites to win every competition they are in. They have had one of the better teams in the league for years and they certainly have the money to spend to keep this club competitive, but they have not won the league title since the 2020 season. They were extremely dominant in all of South America back then and they have continued to be a dominant team in the league despite not winning the title since 2020, still finishing in the top 5 every year since then. They are currently sitting at the top of the table after 6 weeks with a 4-2-0 record, and they also have a +13 goal differential with 15 goals scored and only 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have been playing like the best team in the league to start the season, but they were also very good in their regional league before the season started. Flamengo has both the quality and the depth to be the dominant figure in this league this season. It has also been a few years since they won the title and it has been a few years since their dominant stretch in which they were winning Copa Libertadores as well. They have come close in recent years as well so they are going to be focused on winning the league this year and have the motivation to do so. There is not a team in the league that Flamengo cannot beat so as long as they stay focused, they have the quality to do it and it might just be their year to get it done. There is some value in Flamengo winning the league title at this price.
Palmeiras +175: Palmeiras is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Palmeiras is a force in the league every season, just like Flamengo, and they are just as decorated in South America if not more over the last few years. They have multiple Copa Libertadores Titles in the last 6 years and they have won the league title in 2 of the last 3 seasons, even finishing in 2nd place last season. They are a team that can never be counted out and they always have the quality as well as the depth to stay competitive in this league. They are currently sitting in 2nd place in the table with a 4-1-1 record, and they have a +5 goal differential with 7 goals scored and 2 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have one of the better defenses in the league as they are a very difficult team to score on, but their attack has not been great. They have been struggling to score goals in these matches to start the season and that goes back to their regional league as well. They have been able to score plenty against much weaker clubs and can bury a bad team with goals, but they have struggled to score against the better defenses they have faced and that will lead to more draws throughout the season which will hurt them in the title race in the long run. Their defense is always going to keep them in their matches with a chance to win, but their attack is certainly lacking some quality and they may not have the horses to keep up with a team like Flamengo if they start to pull away at the top of the table. Palmeiras is an elite team in the Brasileirão and they are going to be near the top of the table all season, but there are better teams in the league this season and there is no real value in them winning the league title at this price.
Internacional +1000: Internacional is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Internacional is not an elite team in the Brasileirão and has not been consistently near the top throughout recent years, but they have revamped their team this year with a lot of quality and depth. They have been in the top 5 in 2 of the last 3 seasons and they are going to be a threat in the league this year as well. They are currently sitting in 6th place in the table with a 2-3-1 record, and they have a +4 goal differential with 8 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches so far. They have not had the best start to the season with 3 draws already, but they are still in the top 6 and have plenty of time to make moves as this was not a bad start to the season either. They have a very good defense like the elite teams in this league and that is going to carry them far. Their attack has not been the best to start the season, but they do have plenty of quality and depth in their attack. Internacional does have other competitions to worry about and they will likely be more focused on Copa Libertadores which is going to play a factor in the title race down the stretch, but they have the depth to play in multiple competitions and give themselves a chance. Internacional is certainly a dark horse in this league this season with the way they have revamped their squad and improved it, and there is some value in them winning the title at this price, but they are still not the best option.
Botafogo +1400: Botafogo is the team with the next best chance at winning the Brasileirão Série A Title this season according to the oddsmakers. Botafogo is a club that has had some recent dominance in the Brasileirão. They were a struggling club for years and even ended up in Serie B just a few years ago, but that season changed everything for them as they got back to Serie A the next season and returned as a much stronger club. They have been very dominant in the league over the last 2 seasons and last year was when it all finally came together as they won the league title and the Copa Libertadores Title. They are currently sitting in 8th place in the table with a 2-2-2 record, and they have a +2 goal differential with 6 goals scored and 4 goals allowed in their 6 matches this season. They have a very good defense that keeps them in a lot of their matches, but their attack has been struggling a lot to score goals. This is a problem that goes back to their regional league as well, not scoring many goals throughout that season, and they did not perform well in that league either. Botafogo may be the defending champions from last season, but this season it is going to be much harder for them to win as they will have a much bigger target on their back. They could also be feeling the fatigue of winning both competitions last season, the league title and Copa Libertadores, so they will not have the same urgency as they did last season either. It has also been very rare in recent years for a club not named Flamengo or Palmeiras to repeat as league champions as well. Botafogo is a good club, but they do not have it in them to repeat the league title this season so there is not a lot of value in them at this price.
Recommendation
There is a very large gap between the top 2 teams and the rest of the league to win the title. There is good reason for this though as there have only been 2 teams not named Flamengo or Palmeiras who have won the league title in the last 7 seasons. Internacional is a tempting dark horse at +1000, but they will likely be more focused on winning Copa Libertadores this season and that could hurt them late in the season if they do make a deep run. Flamengo and Palmeiras are the 2 clubs that have dominated this league in recent years, but it has been a while since Flamengo lifted the title and that is surely going to be a focus for them this season. Flamengo is the best team in the league right now and they have the motivation to win, especially with their strong start to the season. Flamengo at +150 is the best option for a club to win the Brasileirão Série A Title this season.