by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 14, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Toledo -15
FanDuel: Toledo -14.5
BetMGM: Toledo -15.5
Caesars: Toledo -15.5
Season record
Bowling Green: 5-5 (4-2 MAC)
Toledo: 7-3 (5-1 MAC)
The college football fun never stops and we're inching closer to conference championship season. A lot of big games are still to be determined in who will play whom and where, and our top-notch handicappers have been at the forefront for the last month or so providing you with the winners you need to head into December with some confidence in your pocket. How can you be so sure? Of course you have to look at the likes of Kyle Hunter going 20-8-0 over the last 30 days, as well as Will Rogers at 22-14-0 over the last month. What about Vegas Writer? He's sitting at 12-6-1 over the last 30 days since joining our team of champion handicappers that has been killing it everywhere this year. You see the success rate. You need to be on board to join our guys who can get you where you need to go for the homestretch of the college football season. Make sure you're keeping tabs here at bigal.com to find out what our champion handicappers are thinking in all sports!
Bowling Green - Toledo preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Bowling Green: lost 40-6 vs. Kent State
Toledo: won 28-21 vs. Ball State
One more win will send the Toledo Rockets, almost guaranteed, to the MAC Championship game after winning five of six in conference play including their last two. But the Rockets will not have an easy task ahead of them with the Bowling Green Falcons taking shape.
One more win will send the Toledo Rockets, almost guaranteed, to the MAC Championship game after winning five of six in conference play including their last two. But the Rockets will not have an easy task ahead of them with the Bowling Green Falcons taking shape.
Toledo has run away with things in the MAC since opening the year 2-2. With five wins in conference play – and the lone loss being to Buffalo on Oct. 22 – the Rockets rebounded nicely with two quality wins against Eastern Michigan and Ball State. The latter came last week, a 28-21 win over the Cardinals in what was an annoying time trying to slow down star running back Carson Steele.
But it was quarterback Dequan Finn making the bigger plays on this day, including an 8-yard touchdown pass to Jamal Turner with 1:18 remaining to give the Falcons a big win at home while also rallying from a 21-14 deficit early in the fourth quarter. Finn threw for 301 yards and 3 touchdowns despite going 21 of 38 passing.
Running back Micah Kelly didn’t have the big day like Steele did, but his 85 yards on 17 carries certainly helped matters, and Jerjuan Newton led the way in receiving with 94 yards on 7 receptions and a touchdown. That kind of production was much needed from Toledo, more so just to prove that they can win with the game on the line.
And if there was any more of a necessity to know that Toledo was in a good spot this week, the Rockets are getting a Bowling Green team that has been very inconsistent even to this point of the season. The Falcons had their three-game winning streak end last week with a 40-6 loss at home to the Kent State Golden Flashes. After holding their last three opponents to 13, 18 and 9 points, respectively, the Falcons gave up 40 to a 4-win Kent State team.
Talk about one giant oof after all that momentum Bowling Green built up in recent weeks. Just 311 total yards of offense and 3 turnovers from Bowling Green did them in. Quarterback Matt McDonald had just 246 yards on 31 completions (out of 40 attempts) with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. But the Falcons didn’t have enough firepower to respond when down 23-0 in the third quarter. By that time, it was already over.
Prediction
Toledo has won 10 of its last 14 at home and are a perfect 5-0 at home this year. This is a team that has shown it can win in different ways and should be the favorites to win the conference outright this year. The Rockets are 17-8 outright as a favorite the last three years, while Bowling Green has gone 6-16 as an underdog. This should do nothing but favor Toledo, at home with the division on the line. Toledo by 17
Betting trends
Bowling Green is 35-20 ATS in road games off an under since 1992.
Bowling Green is 25-9 ATS after 2 straight games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse since 1992.
Toledo is 53-32 ATS in home games after 6 days or less of rest since 1992.
Toledo is 44-24 ATS at home after a game where forcing 1 turnover or less since 1992.
Bowling Green is 12-26 ATS since 1992 after gaining 75 rushing yards or less last game.
Statistical leaders
Bowling Green:
Passing: Matt McDonald -- 2,027 yards, 17 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Jaison Patterson -- 494 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Odieu Hiliare -- 450 yards, 4 TD
Toledo:
Passing: Dequan Finn -- 1,938 yards, 21 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: Jacquez Stewart -- 544 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Jerjuan Newton -- 648 yards, 8 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
