by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Sep 20, 2022
Game time: Noon ET
Venue: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Where to watch: SECN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Mississippi State -30
FanDuel: Mississippi State -29.5
BetMGM: Mississippi State -30
Caesars: Mississippi State -30
Season record
Bowling Green: 1-2 (0-1 MAC)
Mississippi State: 2-1 (0-1 SEC
We are about to get rolling into conference season in college football. This is where the fun truly begins. And if you're trying to find the right expert handicappers to get you the right picks for those games, look no further than Kyle Hunter on a 15-5-1 run since the beginning of the season. What will next week hold? Make sure to check out Kyle's thoughts on our Best Bets page, where you can get a look at the rest of our champion handicappers and get in on the action!
Bowling Green - Mississippi State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Bowling Green: won 34-31 (OT) vs. Marshall
Mississippi State: lost 31-16 at LSU
Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State
Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State
The Bowling Green Falcons have been hit with a bit of bad luck with the overtime gods but were able to squeeze out a win last week against the Marshall Thundering Herd at home. Given now that they have to hit the road and face what’s likely to be an angry Mississippi State Bulldogs team that just lost a winnable game against LSU, this might be not a good look for BGSU.
If you talk to Mississippi State coach Mike Leach, he’ll tell you not to take that 30-point spread that favors the Bulldogs lightly. Even though BGSU has been giving up an abundance amount of yards, the fact they’ve played two close games and split them in overtime should have them feeling confident against one of the tougher teams in the SEC.
"It is unfortunate because we are explosive; we are just inconsistent," Leach said after the Bulldogs lost 31-16 last weekend to the Tigers. "Explosive is fun and explosive means you can get on a run and hit a lot of dingers on somebody. But in the end, that will catch up to you if you are not consistent. We have got to coach consistency in them. That is what we have to do, starting with me."
Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers threw for 214 yards and a touchdown and an interception, with Rara Thomas leading the way receiving with four catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. But the Bulldogs let things get away.
The Bulldogs had a 16-10 lead heading into the fourth quarter. Their final three drives went about as bad as it could possibly be. After a fumbled punt led to a touchdown to give LSU the lead, the Bulldogs went 3-and-out in their next two drives, and then an interception to end things. To let that one slip on the road, to Brian Kelly’s accent, no less, is one of the greater agonizing defeats in that program’s recent memory.
But Bowling Green will present a big problem for the Bulldogs in the sense that the Falcons aren’t a team to just lay down. Even though they let the late lead slip in fourth quarter, they were able to respond after holding Marshall to a field goal and eventually winning. BGSU quarterback Matt McDonald threw for 282 yards and four touchdowns, and Ta’ron Keith caught his fourth in overtime from 2 yards out to get the win.
Marshall was 17-point favorites, and understandably so, in this one, and the Herd put up 547 total yards to just Bowling Green’s 377. The difference? Three turnovers from Marshall, none from Bowling Green. And, not to mention, time of possession was fairly even.
Bowling Green has been a fair play as an underdog the past few years, going 9-8 against the spread in that instance, including 5-5 ATS as a road dog. Mississippi State, at home, is 3-4 ATS as a favorite the past seven instances. So you can see the intrigue with that line.
Prediction
The Bulldogs should win this one given how much football Bowling Green has played the past few weeks. But if that 30 stays throughout the week, lay the 30 points on the Falcons. Don’t hesitate on that one. Mississippi State by 24
Betting trends
Bowling Green is 5-1 ATS in its last six following a non-conference game.
The over is 8-2 in Bowling Green's last 10 following an over.
Bowling Green is 1-5 ATS in its last six off a home win by 3 points or less.
Mississippi State is 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after two straight games with 40 or more pass attempts.
Mississippi State is 16-22 ATS in its last 38 off an upset loss as a favorite.
Statistical leaders
Bowling Green:
Passing: Matt McDonald -- 690 yards, 10 TD
Rushing: Matt McDonald -- 77 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Odieu Hillare -- 143 yards, 3 TD
Mississippi State:
Passing: Will Rogers -- 977 yards, 10 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Dillon Johnson -- 177 yards
Receiving: Rara Thomas -- 211 yards, 2 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Bowling Green Falcons - Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
