Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Odds Preview and Picks - 10/03/2021

by James Q

Saturday, Oct 02, 2021

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Odds Preview and Picks - 10/03/2021

Game Time: 3:05 pm ET, Sunday,  October 3rd,  2021 
Venue: Nationals Park, Washington DC
Where to Watch: MASN 2, NESN

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:  R. Sox -165, Nats +145;  O/U :  9.5 runs
Caesars: Moneyline: R. Sox -165, Nats +145;  O/U :  9.5 runs

Season Record

Red Sox:  90-70 (3rd place AL East)
Nationals:  65-95 (4th place NL East)

In the next two days the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays (in order 2nd, 3rd, 4th AL East) could all switch places.  The Yankees are 1 game above the Red Sox, who are 1 game above the Blue Jays in the standings.  Every machination of pole positioning involves a lower team winning while a higher team loses.  The Yankees are playing an early game today and down 7-1 to the Rays in the bottom of the 3rd.  The Red Sox will play the easy Washington nationals and the Blue Jays will play the easiest Baltimore Orioles…. Meaning with 2 games to play the Red Sox have no idea if they will finish in 2nd or 4th?  It’s a crazy year.

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Red Sox vs Nationals Preview and Analysis

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The Boston Red Sox are 5-5 over their last ten games.  They logged 4 Overs, 5 Unders, and 1 Push.  They went 1-0 against the Baltimore Orioles, 2-0 against the New York Mets, then they got beat up by the New York Yankees 0-3,  went 1-2 against the Baltimore Orioles and 1-0 against the Washington Nationals to start this final series..  The only thing to really remember about last week was getting swept by the Yankees.  It had playoff, wild card, and historic implications. Major League History is littered with all-time moments where the Yankees got the better of the Red Sox… this is another one.

The Washington Nationals are 4-6 over their last ten games.  Notching 6 Overs and 4 Unders. They went 2-0 against the Miami Marlins, 1-3 against the Cincinnati Reds in a four-game series, and 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies, and 0-1 against the Boston Red Sox to start this series..  They have struggled all year.  They sold their best players at the trade deadline to the Los Angeles Dodgers for… prospects?  The only thing they can do to salvage this season is play spoiler for the Toronto Blue Jays by beating the Red Sox.  The Jays hope the Nats have enough pride to try.

Offensive Analysis 

The Boston Red Sox are 3rd in team batting average .261, 4th in runs scored 813, 9th in home runs 213.  Offensively they are elite, except for BB where they fall to 18th.  It’s a hard swinging lineup that provides plenty of run support.

The Washington Nationals are 4th in team batting average .259 (although a lot of that number was from Trea Turner who is gone), 15th in runs scored 714 (this ranking dipped demonstrably since Trea Turner was traded), and 22nd in home runs 179.  The Nationals have nothing left to play for giving the Red Sox an extra advantage in each coming matchup. History will record that this management group got rid of more winners than any other team… why?.. To save money?.  You sign the winners and drop the other guys if you want to save money.


Defensive Analysis

The Boston Red Sox have a glaring weakness. The pitching staff is thin and soft.  They are 15th in team ERA 4.27, 12th in strikeouts 1493, 23rd in WHIP.  Whether the problem is the starters or the bullpen they simply are not taking advantage of the run support the offense is providing. With only a few MLB games left, this pitching could be the reason they miss the postseason because the Blue Jays made a final push.

The Washington Nationals are 24th in team ERA 4.79, 20th in strikeouts 1315, 22nd in WHIP 1.37.  The Nats struggle mightily from the mound.  


Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction

Our Prediction for Sunday, October 3rd is… Red Sox 6 - Nationals  3


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MLB Betting Trends

Boston has beat the Nationals 3-1 in the last three seasons.
Boston is 14-4 against the NL East, +11.1 Units on the moneyline.
Boston is 86-60 on Natural Surface, +13 Units on the moneyline.
Washington is 35-44 in home games, -12.1 Units on the Moneyline.
Washington is 57-88 on natural surface, -25 Units on the moneyline.

Key Injuries

Sox:  Josh Taylor P, 10 Day IL * 
Nats: Patrick Corbin P. Out for season.


Players To Watch

Boston:  Chris Sale, a lefty, 5-1, 2.90 ERA, 45 Strikeouts in 40 IP, 1.24 WHIP.  They call him “The Conductor” and the 32 years old 13th overall pick from the 2010 draft… will not and should not disappoint.

Nats:  The Nats are still TBD on the mound so let’s watch Juan Soto.  Juan is jostling with former teammate Trea Turner for highest batting average.  A hitting streak over the last few games could put him over the top.  Of, course Trea Turner had a Grand Slam last night in a win for The Los Angeles Dodgers… Trea will see the postseason… Trea is most likely to be in high level postseason play like a World Series… Trea is now on a team that will spend whatever it takes to keep him…  but Juan is fine, I’m sure.

Starting Lineups

Red Sox:

E. Hernandez, 2B
K. Schwarber, LF
X. Bogaerts, SS
R. Devers, 3B
J. Martinez, RF
H. Renfroe, CF
B. Dalbec, 1B
C. Vazquez, C

L. Thomas, CF
A. Escobar, SS
J. Soto, RF
J. Bell, 1B
K. Ruiz, C
Y. Hernandez, LF
J. Mercer, 2B
C. Kieboom, 3B

Statistical Leaders

Red Sox:
Batting Average:  Xander Bogaerts .294
Home Runs: Rafael Devers  35
OBP Xander Bogaerts  .365
Hits:  J.D. Martinez 161
Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi  11

Batting Average: Juan Soto .318
RBI: Juan Soto  94
Hits:  Juan Soto  157
Wins: Patrick Corbin 9
Saves:  Brad Hand  21  


Red Sox:  Alex Cora
Nationals: Dave Martinez

Weather Forecast 

Partly Cloudy.  Humidity 62%  84* for the high.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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