Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Odds Preview and Picks - 10/02/2021

by James Q

Boston Red Sox vs Washington Nationals Odds Preview and Picks - 10/02/2021


Game Time: 4:05 pm ET, Friday,  October 2nd,  2021 
Venue: Nationals Park, Washington DC
Where to Watch: MASN, NESN

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Moneyline:  R. Sox -165, Nats +145;  O/U :  9.5 runs
Caesars: Moneyline: R. Sox -165, Nats +145;  O/U :  9.5 runs

Season Record

Red Sox:  89-70 (3rd place AL East)
Nationals:  65-94 (4th place NL East)

The Red Sox held the keys to second place for a long stretch this season.  August and September everything heated up… The Toronto Blue Jays picked up the winning and jumped everybody to take 2nd place… Then the New York Yankees got religion and started winning when it really, really mattered.  The Red Sox plunged from their perch and even touched 4th place briefly.. Then they righted the ship and jumped the Blue Jays who couldn’t over come a couple series with the Tampa Bay Rays who had been in 1st the entire time…. Are you with me?  It has been dizzying! The Sox are back in third place and now must Sweep the Washington Nationals and hope the Yankees lose a couple of the last three games. The American League East has been tense and with the regular season ending and the postseason looming it all feels like a win or go home crap shoot.

 

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Red Sox vs Nationals Preview and Analysis


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The Boston Red Sox are 5-5 over their last ten games.  They logged 4 Overs, 5 Unders, and 1 Push.  They went 2-0 against the Baltimore Orioles, 2-0 against the New York Mets, then they got beat up by the New York Yankees 0-3, Then went 1-2 against the Baltimore Orioles.  The only thing to really remember about last week was getting swept by the Yankees.  It had playoff, wild card, and historic implications. Major League History is littered with all-time moments where the Yankees got the better of the Red Sox… this is another one.

The Washington Nationals are 4-6 over their last ten games.  Notching 7 Overs and 3 Unders. They went 2-1 against the Miami Marlins, 1-3 against the Cincinnati Reds in a four-game series, and 1-2 against the Colorado Rockies.  They have struggled all year.  They sold their best players at the trade deadline to the Los Angeles Dodgers for… prospects?  The only thing they can do to salvage this season is play spoiler for the Toronto Blue Jays by beating the Red Sox.  The Jays hope the Nats have enough pride to try.

Offensive Analysis 

The Boston Red Sox are 3rd in team batting average .261, 4th in runs scored 813, 9th in home runs 213.  Offensively they are elite, except for BB where they fall to 18th.  It’s a hard swinging lineup that provides plenty of run support.

The Washington Nationals are 4th in team batting average .259 (although a lot of that number was from Trea Turner who is gone), 15th in runs scored 714 (this ranking dipped demonstrably since Trea Turner was traded), and 22nd in home runs 179.  The Nationals have nothing left to play for giving the Red Sox an extra advantage in each coming matchup. History will record that this management group got rid of more winners than any other team… why?.. To save money?.  You sign the winners and drop the other guys if you want to save money.

 

Defensive Analysis

The Boston Red Sox have a glaring weakness. The pitching staff is thin and soft.  They are 15th in team ERA 4.27, 12th in strikeouts 1493, 23rd in WHIP.  Whether the problem is the starters or the bullpen they simply are not taking advantage of the run support the offense is providing. With only a few MLB games left, this pitching could be the reason they miss the postseason because the Blue Jays made a final push.

The Washington Nationals are 24th in team ERA 4.79, 20th in strikeouts 1315, 22nd in WHIP 1.37.  The Nats struggle mightily from the mound.  

 

Red Sox vs Nationals Prediction

Our Prediction for Saturday, October 2nd is… Red Sox 7 - Nationals  2

 

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MLB Betting Trends

Boston is 13-4 against the NL East, +10.1 Units on the moneyline.
Boston is 85-60 on Natural Surface, +12 Units on the moneyline.
Washington is 35-43 in home games, -11.1 Units on the Moneyline.
Washington is 57-87 on natural surface, -24 Units on the moneyline.

Key Injuries

Sox:  Josh Taylor P, 10 Day IL * 
Nats: Patrick Corbin P. Out for season.

 

Players To Watch

Boston:  Xander Bogaerts.  They need wins in every one of these games. It’s time for the best hitter to simply ignore what the pitching staff is doing and get big hits.

Nats:  Josiah Gray.  The right-hander will start, he is 2-2, 5.85 ERA, 69 SO in 64 IP.  The 23 year old is far from a world beater… so this is his audition to stay in the majors at the start of next season. 

Starting Lineups

Red Sox:

E. Hernandez, 2B
K. Schwarber, LF
X. Bogaerts, SS
R. Devers, 3B
J. Martinez, RF
H. Renfroe, CF
B. Dalbec, 1B
C. Vazquez, C

Nationals:
L. Thomas, CF
A. Escobar, SS
J. Soto, RF
J. Bell, 1B
K. Ruiz, C
Y. Hernandez, LF
J. Mercer, 2B
C. Kieboom, 3B

Statistical Leaders

Red Sox:
Batting Average:  Xander Bogaerts .294
Home Runs: Rafael Devers  35
OBP Xander Bogaerts  .365
Hits:  J.D. Martinez 161
Wins:  Nathan Eovaldi  11

Nationals:
Batting Average: Juan Soto .318
RBI: Juan Soto  94
Hits:  Juan Soto  157
Wins: Patrick Corbin 9
Saves:  Brad Hand  21  


Managers:

Red Sox:  Alex Cora
Nationals: Dave Martinez

Weather Forecast 

Mostly Sunny.  80* for the high.  Humidity 61%.

 


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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