Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 9/24/2022

by Chuck Sommers

Time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Venue: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Where to watch: NESN, YES, MLB Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Yankees -165, Red Sox +140
FanDuel: Yankees -174, Red Sox +146
BetMGM: Yankees -167, Red Sox +140
Caesars: Yankees -170, Red Sox +143

Season record
Red Sox: 72-78
Yankees: 92-58

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Red Sox - Yankees preview and analysis


Aaron Judge’s historic tour continues. He didn’t hit a home run on Friday, but the New York Yankees won another game and are inching closer to an AL East title. Right now to get to that point, it would mean another win over the Boston Red Sox at home which might be an easy feat at this point.

Judge did go 1-for-4 from the plate and is now batting .315 with history chasing him along the way. Judge is still one from tying Roger Maris for the most all time in the American League. The homer party belonged to Aaron Hicks, who hit a solo shot and also drove in a second run in the fifth.

But for Judge, he has 12 games to make history. That’s plenty of time. If Albert Pujols can hit two in a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers and hit 700, there are no shackles to the bearers of the record books.

“He’s getting off the right swings. He’s making good swing decisions. It’s going to come," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said. "But it is a peek behind just how great a player he is, to that when he doesn’t hit the ball out of the ballpark, he’s still impacting us in a big way.”

Much like in Thursday’s win, Judge did make an impact with not just hit bat, but also his glove. He had a ridiculous throw to get a Boston runner out at second base from right field. That’s why he’s ultimately going to be the AL MVP, no disrespect to Shohei Ohtani.

For example, Judge’s single meant he reached base safely for 22 straight games. The name of the game is to get on base without getting out.

“With obviously all the noise around this and the excitement around this, understandably, he’s still going out there and just putting together good at-bat after good at-bat,” Boone said.

The Yankees are absolutely cooking at the right time, while the Red Sox continue to plummet. Veteran pitcher Rich Hill went five innings but gave up four earned runs and struck out just four. Of course he wasn’t charged with the decision, but his ERA is now up to 4.81 this year.

In typical Yankees-Red Sox fashion, there was a near kerfuffle involving Gerrit Cole thinking he had a strikeout but didn’t. Alex Verdugo basically called him out for complaining and things just unraveled from there.

“It wasn’t even close,” Verdugo said. “He wants to steal every pitch. He wants his catcher to steal it.”

What say you, Gerrit?

“The damage there late is personally tough to swallow,” Cole said. “I think that we made some good strides today and I thought that overall I threw the ball well. It’s obviously just an emotional moment.”

Prediction


Nick Pivetta will take his 10-11 mark to Saturday baseball against Domingo German for the Yankees. German is 2-3 with a 3.12 ERA but I wonder if he’ll have a good start based on the talent around him to get the job done. I think, ultimately, he will. Yankees win 7-4

Betting trends


Red Sox are 4-10 as a road underdog of +150 or more this season.

Red Sox are 20-43 against division opponents this season.

Yankees are 51-20 as a home favorite this season.

Yankees are 29-16 in day games this season.

Projected lineup


Red Sox:
Tommy Pham (R) LF
Rafael Devers (L) 3B
Xander Bogaerts (R) SS
Alex Verdugo (L) RF
J.D. Martinez (R) DH
Triston Casas (L) 1B
Enrique Hernandez (R) CF
Yu Chang (R) 2B
Connor Wong (R) C

Yankees:
Aaron Judge (R) RF
Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B
Gleyber Torres (R) 2B
Josh Donaldson (R) 3B
Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH
Oswaldo Cabrera (S) LF
Harrison Bader (R) CF
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R) SS
Kyle Higashioka (R) C

Statistical leaders


Red Sox:
Batting average: Xander Bogaerts -- .314
Home runs: Rafael Devers -- 27
RBI: Rafael Devers -- 84
Wins: Michael Wacha -- 11
ERA: Nick Pivetta -- 4.35

Yankees:
Batting average: Aaron Judge -- .315
Home runs: Aaron Judge -- 60
RBI: Aaron Judge -- 128
Wins: Jameson Taillon -- 13
ERA: Gerrit Cole -- 3.49

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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