Game Time: 7:40 pm ET, Monday, August 29th 2022 

Venue: Target Field, Minneapolis, Minnesota

Where to Watch:  MLB.tv 

 

Opening MLB Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings: Red Sox +135, Twins -154; O/U 9; ATS 1.5

Caesars:  

PointsBet: 

 

Red Sox: 62-65, 5th place AL East

Twins: 64-61, 2nd place AL Central

An American League matchup between the worst of the AL East and the 2nd best of the AL Central.  This game is an indictment of the Al Central as the softest division in the American League… the 2nd place Al Central Twins are only 2 wins better than the last place AL East Red Sox.  For all intents and purposes this is an even game.  The Red Sox stink… sure, but the Twins are no better… their place in the standings means nothing.  Pitching matchup and gambling lines will determine who to put your money on in this one.  You don’t have to bet on every game… but it is much easier to go 5 of 7 if you actually bet 7 games.  Going all in and only betting the Yankees or Astros or Dodgers… guarantees a negative betting day when you take a loss.  Spreading it out and following the numbers can protect you and your bankroll from those catastrophic days.   Let’s check the number.

The Boston Red Sox have won only 4 of their last 10 games.  They have not been able to make up any of the 16 games they are stuck out of first place.  They have also not been able to make their way into less than 4 wins out of 4th place in the division.  This is a baseball quagmire.  They are stuck and playing like a team that will remain so.  The Red Sox have the horrible reality of being above average in hitting but a dumpster fire on the mound.  That is a recipe for losing games… but encouragingly it is also a recipe for moving up quickly next season by simply signing a few big arms.  The Red Sox are a proud franchise that will try.  Can they do it without batting attrition?... They went 2-0 against the Tampa Bay Rays, 0-3 against the Toronto Blue Jays, 1-2 against the Baltimore Orioles, and 1-1 against the Pittsburgh Pirates.  Left hander Rich Hill was the stud on the mound while winning two games during that ten day stretch.  Everyone else found a way to stink up the joint.

The Minnesota Twins have also only won 4 of their last 10 games.  This is the sort of symmetry you would expect from two bad teams regardless of division placing.  This particular bad team is also kind of good at hitting (though not Red Sox level), but their pitching is slightly better… BUT they compiled those stats by playing a majority of their games in the very soft AL Central.  The Twins are a billboard for what the AL Central is capable of… and not necessarily what a good baseball team is capable of.  They went 2-0 against the San Francisco Giants in San Fran, 0-3 against the Houston Astros, 1-3 against the Texas Rangers, and 1-0 against the Kansas City Royals.  Inauspicious for a 2nd place team in any division.

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The Boston Red Sox are 11th in scoring with 4.50 runs per game, 7th in batting average with .257, and 11th in OBP with .316.

The Minnesota Twins are 15th in scoring with 4.40 runs per game, 11th in batting average with .248, and 10th in OBP with .317.

The Boston Red Sox pitchers are 25th in team ERA with 4.46, 24th in WHIP with 1.32, and the fielders are 17th in errors with 67 on the season so far.

The Minnesota Twins pitchers are 17th in ERA with 3.94, 12th in WHIP with 1.24, and the fielders are 10th in errors with 59 on the season so far.

 

Our prediction for Monday, August 29th is…  Twins 7 - Red Sox 3

 

The Gol’Darn Red Sox have opted to start a kid that is throwing meatballs and immediately signals a bullpen game (not a red sox strength).  The bet is for the Twins on the moneyline… If you have the need to push I could also recommend the Twins ATS.  No Parlays, No Overs or Unders… It is all speculative.  

 

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Red Sox: 2B T Story (rest) Quest ** 1B E Hosmer (back) Out ** 

Twins: CF B Buxton (hip) Out *8 C R Jeffers (thumb) Out ** 3B M Sano (knee) Out *8 RF T Lanarch (abdominal) Out ** SS R Lewis (knee) Out ** 

Red Sox: RHP Bryan Bello, 0-3, 7.36 ERA, 22 strikeouts in 22 innings pitched. 2.09 WHIP.  The 23 year old is in the majors and struggling mightily.  He has as many single season wins as career wins (and innings) because he is a “now call-up”.  This kid needs more time in the minors and is only hurting his trade value as a prospect.

 

Giants:  RHP Dylan Bundy, 7-6, 4.56 ERA, 77 strikeouts in 108 innings pitches. 1.21 WHIP.  This 29 year old will not make the Hall of Fame.  He is below average as a starter for this season and his career.  He has 7 wins though.  So maybe there is a future as a middle reliever with a lead.

Red Sox: LF Tommy Pham, RF Alex Verdugo, DH JD Martinez, 3B Rafael Devers, SS Xander Bogaerts, 2B Trevor Story, CF Enrique Hernandez, 1B Bobby Dalbec, C Kevin Plawecki

Twins: RF Kyle Garlick, SS Carlos Correa, 1B Jose Miranda, 3B Gio Urshela, 2B Jorge Polanco, CF Gilberto Celestino, DH Gary Sanchez, LF Nick Gordon, C Sandy Leon

 

Red Sox: Alex “it all fell apart” Cora

Twins: Rocco “stubble is the name of the game” Baldelli

Cloudy, 73*, Humidity 86% chance of rain 15%, wind 10 mph. Late August stinks in Minnesota.  They have no control over the clouds and rain and humidity, and flop sweat.  It’s tough… but at least they aren't shoveling snow everyday… although that is coming.