Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Prediction, Preview and Odds - 10/22/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 8:08 pm ET, Friday, October 22, 2021
Venue:  Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX
Where to Watch:  Fox Sports 1

 

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -110, Astros -110; Over/Under 8.5 runs
Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -110, Astros -110; Over/Under 8.5 runs
BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox -105, Astros -115; Over/Under 8.5 runs
 

Season Record

Boston Red Sox:  92-70 (3rd place, AL East)
Houston Astros:  95-67 (1st place, AL West)
 
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Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros Preview and Analysis

 
Recent Form
Boston Red Sox:  6-4 last 10
Houston Astros:  7-3 last 10

 


Boston Red Sox Analysis

The Red Sox are coming into this game after losing game 5 of this series on Wednesday night and going down 3-2 in the ALCS to the Astros. The Red Sox are now on a 2 game losing streak coming into this game. This will be game 6 on Friday night of this best-of-seven series. Chris Sale was given the nod in game 5 on Wednesday so Nathan Eovaldi will be the starting pitcher on the mound in this game 6 on Friday. He is 11-9 with a 3.75 ERA this season and he has already pitched in 4 games in these playoffs. He was a starter in 3 of those and came out of the bullpen as a reliever in the other. He is 2-1 this postseason with his loss coming in his last game when he was the reliever but his team is 3-0 in his starts. He allowed 4 runs in less than 1 inning in his last appearance and that allowed the Astros to tie the series up. In his last start, he allowed 3 ER and 1 BB with 3 Ks on 5 hits through 5.1 IP in game 2 against the Astros last Saturday. He has seen the Astros lineup in 2 different games now this postseason and he has allowed 7 runs against him in just 6 innings. Their offense has scored 28 runs in their last 5 games averaging over 5 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 31 runs against them in that same span allowing over 6 runs per game.
 

Houston Astros Analysis

The Astros are coming into this game with a 3-2 lead in the series with 2 home games left to finish the Red Sox off. They were down 2-1 in the series and made a strong comeback winning their last 2 games straight in Boston to take a lead in the series going back to Houston for the final stretch of the ALCS. This will be game 6 of this series on Friday night. Framber Valdez was the starter on Wednesday in game 5 so Luis Garcia will be throwing the first pitch in this game 6 on Friday. He is 11-8 with a 3.30 ERA this season. He has been credited with 2 losses straight and his team has lost their last 3 games with him starting. In his last start, he allowed 5 ER, 1 being a HR, and 3 BB with 2 strikeouts on 2 hits through 1 IP against the Red Sox in game 2 last Saturday. He has not pitched well at all in this postseason allowing 5 runs in each of his 2 starts. The Red Sox have already destroyed him in 1 game and he did not even make it out of the 2nd inning. Their offense has scored 31 runs in their last 5 games averaging a little over 6 runs scored per game in that span and they have allowed their opponents to score 28 runs against them in that same span allowing over 5 runs per game.
 

 

Red Sox vs Astros Prediction

The Astros have shifted momentum in their favor in the last 2 games of this series. Just when all hope seemed lost as they were getting hit like no tomorrow, they stepped up and got 2 big wins to take the lead back. They have turned the tables on the Red Sox scoring 18 runs on them in the last 2 games of this series alone while the Red Sox have only managed 3 runs total in those 2 games. Now the Astros get to be at home with 2 chances to close out the series and the pressure is on the Red Sox to make a move all of the sudden. The best bet to place in this game is on the Astros to win as they look like a much better team now and have the momentum on their side.
 
Red Sox Astros Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Friday, October 22, 2021 (8:08 pm ET start time) is Astros 7 Red Sox 3.
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MLB Betting Trends

 
Boston Red Sox: 66-79 (-16 units) on the money line when the money line is +125 to -125. 206-188 (-24.6 units) on the money line in all games. 126-117 (-18 units) on the money line when the total is 8.5 to 10. 35-37 (-15.2 units) on the money line against AL West opponents.
Houston Astros: 15-8 (+6.6 units) on the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125. 139-67 (+13.8 units) on the money line in home games. 108-51 (+6.4 units) on the money line at home when the total is 8.5 to 10. 45-16 (+22.4 units) on the money line when playing with a day off.
 

Key Injuries

 
Boston Red Sox:  P. Valdez (RP) Out indefinitely - Illness.
Houston Astros:  J. Meyers (CF) Ques Tues - Shoulder injury. L. Garcia (SP) day-to-day - Knee injury. P. Baez (RP) Late Oct - Shoulder injury.
 

Players to Watch

 
Boston Red Sox: Rafael Devers is one player to watch in this matchup. He led his team in hits, home runs, and in RBI during the regular season. He has continued his great offense into the postseason and is coming off of a game where he had 2 hits, 1 RBI and scored the only run for his team in game 5. Even in a game where they scored 1 run he was involved in it. Look for him to keep up his great play here and help his team try to bounce back with a win.
 
Houston Astros: Yordan Alvarez is one player to watch in this contest. He led his team in RBI and in home runs during the regular season. He is coming off of a game where he was heavily involved in the offense with 3 hits, 3 RBI and 2 runs scored himself. Look for him to keep contributing to this offense as he looks to help his team close out the series at home here.
 

Notable Quotes

 
"Yeah, a lot of people thought it was a strike. It was a good game until the end, right? We were one pitch away from ending that inning, and it didn't happen, and then they scored seven." - Alex Cora on his team’s bullpen collapsing in the 9th inning of game 4, allowing the Astros to tie the series.
 
 
"This is one of the great things about baseball. When you're dead in the water and things aren't going good, and then all of a sudden, boom, boom, boom, and you got seven runs. - Dusty Baker on his team scoring 7 runs in the 9th inning of game 4 to tie the series 2-2.
 
 
 

Starting Lineups

 
Boston Red Sox
E. Hernandez CF
K. Schwarber 1B
X. Bogaerts SS
R. Devers 3B
J.D. Martinez DH
H. Renfroe RF
A. Verdugo LF
C. Arroyo 2B
C. Vazquez C
 
Houston Astros
J. Altuve 2B
M. Brantley LF
A. Bregman 3B
Y. Alvarez DH
C. Correa SS
K. Tucker RF
Y. Gurriel 1B
J. Siri CF
M. Maldonado C
 

Statistical Leaders

 
Boston Red Sox
Batting Average:  X. Bogaerts (.295)
Hits:  R. Devers (166)
Home Runs:  R. Devers (38)
RBI:  R. Devers (115)
Stolen Bases:  C. Vazquez (8)
Wins:  E. Rodriguez (13)
Saves:  M. Barnes (24)
ERA:  R. Brasier (1.50)
 
Houston Astros
Batting Average:  Y. Gurriel (.319)
Hits:  Y. Gurriel (169)
Home Runs:  Y. Alvarez (33)
RBI:  Y. Alvarez (104)
Stolen Bases:  K. Tucker (14)
Wins:  L. McCullers Jr. (13)
Saves:  R. Pressly (26)
ERA:  K. Graveman (1.77)
 
Managers:
Boston Red Sox: Alex Cora (3rd season, non-consecutive)
Houston Astros: Dusty Baker (2nd season)
 

Weather Forecast

86 degrees F partly cloudy, 62% humidity, 0% chance of rain, up to 9 mph wind speeds E.


Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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