Boston Red Sox vs Atlanta Braves Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/16/2026

Game Time: 7:15 pm ET, Saturday, May 16, 2026

Venue:  Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +119, Braves -143; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +120, Braves -140; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Red Sox +120, Braves -140; Over/Under:  8 runs

Boston Red Sox:  18-25 (5th place, AL East)

Atlanta Braves:  30-14 (1st place, NL East)

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Boston Red Sox:  5-5 last 10

Atlanta Braves:  6-4 last 10

The Red Sox are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 18-25 record overall and have a road record of 10-11. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Braves on Saturday with the series opener still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .667 OPS. Connelly Early is their starting pitcher on Friday while Payton Tolle is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 1-2 with a 2.78 ERA this season. His team lost 3 of their last 4 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 4 SO on 7 hits through 5 IP against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The Braves are entering this series off a loss and won their 3-game series against the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 30-14 record overall and have a home record of 14-7. This is the 2nd game of a 3-game series with the Red Sox on Saturday with the 1st game of this series still to be played on Friday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .779 OPS. Spencer Strider is their starting pitcher on Friday while Bryce Elder is making his start in this game on Saturday. He is 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 4 walks with 8 strikeouts on 1 hit through 5.2 innings pitched against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The current betting odds have the Braves listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Braves have looked great in their games this season with their 30-14 record overall which has them right at the top of the NL East with the best record in MLB. They have looked great in their own ballpark too with their 14-7 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have looked terrible in their games this season with their 18-25 record overall which has them right at the bottom of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team either with their 10-11 road record this year. The Red Sox have had a terrible start to the season and it doesn't look like things are going to turn around. They are only 5-5 in their last 10 games too and dealing with a ton of injuries now. The Braves have been dealing with their own injuries too, but they are still 6-4 in their last 10 games and have the best record in MLB at the moment. They are also going to have the better pitching matchup in this one and that is something that the Red Sox have had trouble with all year. The Red Sox don't have a great starting rotation and they are going with Tolle in this one. He is 1-2 with a 2.78 ERA and has looked good this season, but the team still hasn't had much success with him. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games with him starting and he did give up 3 earned runs in his last start too. The Braves are going with Elder in this one and he is having a great bounce back season. He is 4-1 with a 1.81 ERA and has been shutting teams down all year. He gave up no runs at all in his last start which has been a common theme for him and the team has won 2 games in a row now with him starting. These two teams have been trending in opposite directions all season and the Braves are going to take advantage of this better pitching matchup at home, also with one of the best offenses in the league. The best way to place a bet here is on the Braves to win this game. 

Red Sox Braves Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Saturday, May 16, 2026 (7:15 pm ET start time) is Braves 5 Red Sox 3.

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Boston Red Sox: 95-91 (+7.9 units) on the moneyline in road games. 130-114 (+13 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 59-49 (+11.4 units) on the moneyline on the road when the money line is +125 to -125. 22-15 UNDER against NL East opponents. 5-1 UNDER vs. good power teams - averaging 1.25 or more HR's/game.

Atlanta Braves: 16-18 (-6.4 units) on the moneyline against AL East opponents. 195-175 (-40.1 units) on the moneyline in all games. 99-84 (-27.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 111-64 UNDER in home games. 98-63 UNDER when playing against a team with a losing record.

Boston Red Sox:  C. Wong (C) Day To Day - Ankle. R. Anthony (LF) Ten Day IL - Wrist. D. Coulombe (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Cervical Spasms. P. Sandoval (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Crochet (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. T. Casas (1B) Sixty Day IL - Knee. J. Oviedo (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. K. Crawford (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Wrist. R. Gonzalez (1B) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. Houck (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

Atlanta Braves:  S. Murphy (C) Ten Day IL - Finger. E. White (CF) Seven Day IL - Concussion. R. Acuna Jr. (RF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. D. Dodd (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Back. D. Young (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. A. Smith-Shawver (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. H. Waldrep (SP) Fifteen Day IL - Elbow. J. Wentz (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee. S. Schwellenbach (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Jimenez (RP) Sixty Day IL - Knee.

"I just think that we have a handful of guys that are really good players that have got off to really bad starts. It's a hard game… the confidence can get affected a little bit. I think what I've seen that has gone here is you got some guys that are good players that are going through struggles and trying to find their way out of it." - Chad Tracy on his team’s offense this season.

"I'm so engrossed with the day-to-day. You want to attack each day the best you can, and these guys are doing that. They confront every challenge that comes our way.” - Walt Weiss on the day-to-day battles.

Jarren Duran (L) LF

Andruw Monasterio (R) DH

Wilyer Abreu (L) RF

Willson Contreras (R) 1B

Ceddanne Rafaela (R) CF

Trevor Story (R) SS

Carlos Narváez (R) C

Caleb Durbin (R) 3B

Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R) 2B

Drake Baldwin (L) C

Ozzie Albies (S) 2B

Matt Olson (L) 1B

Michael Harris II (L) CF

Mauricio Dubón (R) LF

Austin Riley (R) 3B

Dominic Smith (L) DH

Ha-Seong Kim (R) SS

Mike Yastrzemski (L) RF

Batting Average:  Mickey Gasper (.417)

Hits:  Wilyer Abreu (49)

Home Runs:  Willson Contreras (8)

RBI:  Willson Contreras (23)

Stolen Bases:  Jarren Duran (9)

Wins:  Sonny Gray (4)

Saves:  Aroldis Chapman (9)

ERA:  Justin Slaten (0.00)

Batting Average:  Sandy León (.500)

Hits:  Drake Baldwin (52)

Home Runs:  Matt Olson (14)

RBI:  Matt Olson (37)

Stolen Bases:  Ronald Acuña (7)

Wins:  Chris Sale (6)

Saves:  Raisel Iglesias (8)

ERA:  Raisel Iglesias (0.00)

Managers:

Boston Red Sox: Chad Tracy (Interim)

Atlanta Braves: Walt Weiss (1st season)