Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/13/2022

by James Q

Thursday, May 12, 2022

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/13/2022

Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Friday, May 13th, 2022 
Venue:   Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Where to Watch:  ESPN

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Bucks -1.5; O/U 211
Fanduel:  Bucks -1.5; O/U 211
BetMGM: Bucks -1.5; O/U 211

NBA Standings

Celtics: 51-31. 2nd place Eastern Conference, 2-3 in series
Bucks: 51-31, 3rd place Eastern Conference, 3-2 in series

OUCH!!  Holy Hell!  An NBA Eastern Conference second round series, game 6.  It’s a true elimination game for the Boston Celtics AFTER they felt as if they had game 5 in the bag… then it slipped away.  The depression in the locker room could be felt miles away.  Grown men… Millionaires… openly sobbing at the lost opportunity for immortality.  The Boston Celtics are the best defensive team in the NBA… but in the last 4 minutes of a game 5… they got seriously out defended.  The Celtics could not score because Giannis was forcing bad shots form Tatum… and Jrue Holiday ate Marcus Smart's lunch.  Marcus went to the fridge and looked for his brown bag clearly marked “Marcus” and found nothing but ripped up paper.  He looked around the lunch room to see Jrue Holiday wiping peanut butter from the corner of his mouth.  There was nothing the Celtics could do… they dropped Game 5 and they were missing C Robert Williams III who may be the cornerstone to their defense.  The Bucks on the other hand patiently went through the motions of being down.  They never let themselves get too low and they never gave in.  When the last 4 minutes hit them positively… They just played their best game.  This series is everything we thought it would be.  We are up 3-2, but with the vig that leaves us with a thin margin to get the next game…. OR THE NEXT TWO!  Let’s check the numbers and find the great betting opportunity.

The Boston Celtics are heartbroken.  The Celtics have won 7 of their last 10 games including 1 regular season game.  They went 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  5 Overs and 5 Unders.  They are playing great defense… they have had big offensive games.  Except they are playing last year’s Champs… and last year’s Champs never let them rest.  The Celics are now on the brink of elimination… ON THE ROAD. In the last games they lost 110-107 to the Bucks.  SF Jayson Tatum had 34 points but 3 key misses down the stretch.  PF Al Horford had 8 points and 8 rebounds after being a 30 point hero in Game 4.  C/PF Grant Williams DID NOT SCORE in 30 minutes of playing great defense.  SG Jaylen Brown had 26 points 8 rebounds and 6 assists.  The Key to the Celtics winning has always been great defense plus 50 points from Tatum and Brown… They got that and still lost.  PG Marcus Smart and SG Derrick White have to carry more weight for a Celtics win on MIlwaukee’s home floor… Will they?... Can they?  Head Coach Ime Udoka may have to rethink that 6 player rotation he went with.  They were missing C Robert Williams III and could have used a little more rest for the top guys… PF Daniel Thies only saw the court for 11 minutes and pulled down 11 points… Maybe he should have seen 20 minutes?

The Milwaukee Bucks have won 7 of their last 10 games… all Playoff games.  They went 5-4-1 ATS.  2 Overs and 8 Unders.  The Bucks are pulling down UNDERS like I pull new plates at a buffet.  They won the last game in dramatic last minute fashion on Boston’s floor.  They will go home with a great feeling.  Giannis was simply Giannis… he had 40 points, 11 rebounds and 3 assists.  The team goes how Giannis goes… and that means they win a lot.  Giannis needs some help however (we all do) so the 24 points from Jrue Holiday which also came with a game changing block on PG Marcus Smart was very welcome in the win column.  Portis and Connaughton contributed, but the win is purely Giannis plus a good game from PG Jrue Holiday.  The Bucks rotation was slimmed down to 8 players with PG Geroge Hill only playing 12 minutes and logging a -15 +/- number.  George will not see the floor in the next game unless they are losing big in the final minutes.  On draft day over a decade ago the Indiana Pacers traded SF Kawhi Leonard to the San Antonio Spurs for PG George Hill… Hill will never live that down even though he has had a wonderful NBA career.  Knowing that Wesleyt Matthews and Grayson Allen have been mostly quiet for the last several games… plus they will be shooting on home buckets during the closeout?... It could be a couple days of rest for the Bucks before the Conference Finals.

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Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Boston is 57-34 on the season, but 50-39-2 ATS. They have logged 44 Overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 26-19 in road games.

Milwaukee is 58034 on the season, but 44-47-1 ATS.  They have notched 45 Overs and 47 Unders.  They are 30-16 in home games.  >>Take a close look at those home numbers<<

Offensive Analysis 

The Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5.

The Bucks are 3rd in scoring with 115.5 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.7 per game, and 15th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they hold their opponents to 112.2 ppg while ranking 19th.
 

Boston Celtics vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Friday, May 13th is…..  Celtics 108 - bucks 100

Yes, we are doubling up on the Celtics.  A Game 7 is the most logical finish when you look at the Celtics roster + the 10 year, 20 years, 30 and even 50  year history of the club says.  Tension was born in the old Boston Garden.  The best player in the league left standing (Giannis) will have to get past the Celtics for real.  That is what the Macro numbers say.  Bte for the series to keep going… or risk peril against the best story in basketball!

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NBA Betting Trends

Milwaukee is 3-10 ATs off an upset win over the last 3 seasons.
Milwaukee is 5-1 ATs when attempting to close out a series the last 3 seasons.
Boston is 6-0 ATS versus Milwaulkee the last 3 seasons.

Injury List

Celtics: Robert Williams III (knee) Quest.  He should try to play.. If he does not… that is that.

Bucks: SF Khris Middelton (knee) Out

Starting Lineups

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Daniel Theis, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Bucks: PF Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez, SF Bobby Portis, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue Holiday

Coaches

Celtics: Ime Udoka
Bucks: Mike Budenholzer



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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