Game Time: 7:30 PM ET, Monday, May 9th, 2022 

Venue:    Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Bucks -1; O/U 212

Fanduel:  Bucks -1; O/U 212

BetMGM: Bucks -1.5; O/U 211.5

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Bucks: 51-31, 3rd place Eastern Conference

An NBA Eastern Conference 2nd round series Game 4.  This series has been a pendulum… the momentum has swung back and forth and almost broke off the chain in Game 3.  In game 1 the Boston Celtics lost on their home floor, as the higher seed, 101-89… for a loss and an ATS loss.  In Game 2 the Boston Celtics stole a game for a 109-86 win and win ATS.  The series was knotted 1-1.  The home court switched to Fiserv Forum where the Bucks barely won Game 3 103-101 for a PUSH.  No matter who you have put your money on… the betting is 1-1-1 so far.  All three games hit the UNDER.  The Celtics have a strong starting five with a strong bench.  They Celtics have THE top defense.  The Bucks have the best player in the series if not the entire league in Giannis Antetokounmpo.  The Bucks bench is not as strong but is wonderfully interchangeable… If Grayson Allen is stinking up the joint?... The Bucks have 2 guys who can fill his spot and possibly lift the production.  The Boston Celtics now find themselves behind the 8-ball desperate not to go down 3-1… will they pull through and tie the series again?... Will the Bucks smash the C’s on their home floor again?... But most importantly… Where is the best place for our money?... Cause the 1-1-1 ATS mark for both teams will get a 2 in one of those columns.

The Boston Celtics have won 7 of their last 10 games, including 3 regular season games.  They went 6-3-1 during that stretch.  Included in the last 3 games was a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks… so technically the Bucks have beaten the Celtics in 3 of their last four matchups… all within the last ten games.  That is dire news for the Celtics.  In game 3 the Celtics looked like they had a chance all the way to the buzzer as a batted-around rebound left Al Horford’s hand just a fraction of a second late of the buzzer .. 0.2 seconds later and Game 3 would have gone to overtime.  That is the sort of thing that could give a team the confidence that they are one bucket away from winning… or it could sap their resolve… After all, they may have lost their best chance to take control before going home again.  In the loss SF Jayson Tatum had his worst playoff game ever with only 10 points on 4-19 shooting… if he had made 1-2 more buckets the Celtics would have won… It’s that simple.  SG Jaylen Brown ended up leading the team with 27 points… while PF Al Horford was steady and true with 22 points and 16 rebounds.  PG Marcus Smart had an awful game.  Marcus not only didn’t hit double figures in points, but he missed practically every shot he took.  The Good news for the Celtics is that Jatson Tatum and Marcus Smart only need to hit a few percentage points better from their worst game… to get a win.

The MIlwaukee Bucks have won 7 of their last 10 games, including the last two regular season games.  They went 5-4-1 ATS during that stretch.  PF Giannis Antetokounmpo is the story.. He had 42 points, 12 rebounds, 8 assists.  He will be the story in every Bucks win and also in every Bucks loss.  He is the unstoppable force of the NBA at the moment.  To beat the Bucks you have to play defense on Giannis to keep him honest… but more importantly you have to acknowledge that he is going to get HIS… and you have to focus on shutting down everyone else.  There has yet been a team with the courage to simply attack Giannis every time down the floor… each and every time.  Giannis is so athletic he will rack up the blocked shots… but he is also an NBA player and therefore susceptible to foul trouble. In Game 3 PG Jrue Holiday had 25 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. The Bucks really only got basic if not below average production from everyone else… but when two players give you 67 points and you end up winning by two points?... You didn’t need much else but the occasional call going your way.  The Bucks can only play one way… that is to ride Giannis to the finish line.  It is not likely this will or can change.

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Boston is 56-33 on the season, but 49-38-2 ATS. They have logged 42 Overs, 45 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 25-19 in road games.

Milwaukee is 57-33 on the season, but 43-46-1 ATS.  They have notched 43 Overs, 47 Unders.  They are 30-15 in home games. 

Boston is 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.

Milwaukee is 3rd in scoring with 115.5 ppg, 2nd in rebounds with 46.7 per game, and 15th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 19th while allowing 112.1 ppg from opponents. Though they have held Boston below that number in all three games of this series.

 

Our prediction for Monday, May 9th is….. Boston 112 - Bucks 104

Boston will finally hit shots.  It sounds crazy but Ime Udoka is the best at making next game changes that work.  The changes are subtle but they do and have worked.  The Celtics are also shooting way below average in this series… if they even come close to their season averages (individually) the Celtics will break the game wide open.  I’m betting that the C’s will go back to Boston tied and ready for a very tight Game 5.  The small spread is practically Vegas’s way of daring you to bet on the Bucks after that big win!  Do not fall for it.  Numbers regress to their means and if that happens for the Celtics we end up watching an entirely different game.

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Boston is 20-7 ATS after a combined score of 205 points or less.

Milwaukee is 6-1 ATS in the fourth game of a playoff series.

Milwaukee is 3 Over and 11 Under at home when the line is +3 to -3.

Boston is 1 Over and 9 Under in the second round of the playoffs the last 3 seasons.

Celtics: No injuries to report… though PG Marcus Smart is playing dinged up.

Bucks: SF Khris Middleton (knee) Out.  Khris is an important piece for the Bucks but has not been missed much.

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SG Jaylen Brown, Pg Marcus Smart

Bucks: SF Wesley Matthews, PG Giannis Antetokounmpo, C Brook Lopez, SG Grayson Allen, PG Jrue Holiday

Celtics: Ime Udoka

Bucks: Mike Budenholzer