Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/29/2022

by James Q

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/29/2022


Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Sunday, May 29th, 2022 
Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida  
Where to Watch:  ESPN

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Celtics -2.5; O/U 197
Fanduel:  Celtics -2.5; O/U 197.5
BetMGM: Celtics -2.5; O/U 197.5

NBA Standings

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 3-3 in the series
Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eatsern Conference, 3-3 in the series

Game 7 alert!  An NBA Eastern Conference Finals Game 7.  The Boston Celtics dropped a game at home and will now be forced to take on the Heat in a winner take all game 7 on the Heat’s home floor.  There is a reason all these teams should want to win games early in the season… There is a reason all these teams should keep fighting if they have a shot at First Place in the Conference!  It all boils down to a Game 7… and who has home court advantage!  The Celtics have been the safe bet in the postseason… grabbing a Sweep off the Brooklyn Nets and cashing 4 bets ATS in a row!  That moved me a little toward blindness. Being up so much money on one team caused me to bet on them and recommend them the rest of the way… going 11-6  ATS in the win column when you add  the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat (so far).  Conversely, the Miami Heat got my bets in the first two rounds of the playoffs as well… Going 4-1 ATS against the Atlanta Hawks and 4-2 ATS against the Philadelphia 76ers.  I was up 8-3 ATS on the Heat…  Then in the conference Finals I thought I saw something in the Celtics and I backed that horse instead of the Heat.  The result would have been the same if I backed the Heat… Both teams have gone 3-3 ATS in these Conference Finals, both teams have gone 11-6 ATS in these playoffs.  I’m up, way up, but nowhere near up as much if I had skipped a few of these Conference Finals games.   Anyway… I never skip a Conference Finals Game 7.  We will review the last game and choose one of these teams to win it all and move on to the Finals against the Golden State Warriors… But most importantly which team is the Great Betting Opportunity!

The Boston Celtics have lost 5 2022 NBA playoff games prior to this last one… Each time they lost they followed the loss with a Win which was also an ATS win.   They not only win after a loss they win BIG.  In the last loss there was a key moment.  4th quarter 2:14 left on the clock… the game was tied 99-99… SG Jaylen Brown misses two free throws… Following the second miss, the Heat secured the rebound and hit SF Jimmy Butler with a quick outlet pass that led to an easy lay-up AND ONE with the foul.  The Heat never looked back after that moment… cruising to an 8 point win.  If Jaylen Brown has spent the last 12 hours kicking himself over those missed free throws it would be merited… but also myopic.  The real reason he should be kicking himself, along with SF Jayson Tatum, and PG Marcus Smart… is that the Celtics star TRIO combined for 13 turnovers… the team as a whole had 17 turnovers.  Every Celtics postseason loss is littered with turnovers.  In the Game they got 30 points from Jayson Tatum, 20 Points from Jaylen Brown, and 22 points from SG/PG Derrick White… That should have been enough to win if Al Horford and Grant Williams hadn’t had basically invisible performances.  In game 7 you should expect Horford and Williams to do better than get in foul trouble (both did) and combine for only 5 points.  

The Miami Heat got an all-time performance from SF Jimmy Butler once again!  He had been terrible over the last 3 games as he struggled with knee pain… but in Game 6 Jimmy Butler landed 47 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists, and 4 ENORMOUS steals.  Jimmy was absolutely the key to the game for Miami… He also proved something everyone in the league should take notice of… Making a 2 pointer is and has always been MUCH better than missing a 3-pointer.  Also playing great defense is why the Heat are here in the first place.  The Heat also got 18 points from PG Kyle Lowry who would foul out in the closing minutes… and 13 points from SG Max Strus before he fouled out in the closing minutes.  C Bam Adebayo was relatively quiet… but since he negated Horford and Williams for the Celtics… it all worked out.  A giant bonus for the Heat in this win was of course: FOUL SHOTS… The Heat were collectively 24 of 25 from the charity stripe.  The Heat should recognize that their best chance at winning is to keep it physical and defensive… they frustrate the Celtics when it gets very physical.


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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

Miami is 63-35 on the season, but 55-42-1 ATS.  They have logged 54 Over, 44 Under, and 1 Push.  They are 27-21 on the road.

Boston is 62-36 on the season, but 55-41-2 ATS.  They have notched 47 Over, 49 Under, and 2 Push.    They are 33-16 in home games.

Offensive Analysis

Boston is 12th in scoring with 111.8 points per game, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they Rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg… and blocking 5.8 shots per game (2nd in the league)

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 points per game, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while allowing 105.6 ppg from opponents.  
 

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Sunday, May 29th is…..    Celtics 110 - Heat 99

The Celtics will get this win.  As mentioned before, the Celtics have followed every loss in this postseason with an ATS win.  Plus the Heat simply will not get 47 points out of Jimmy Butler again… while the Celtics will not get 5 combined points out of Grant Williams and Al Horford again.  Celtics coach Ime Udoka has a knack for making adjustments after a loss.  Also you have a GREAT chance at betting the OVER.  The series has had 4 Over and 2 Under so far… and Vegas has set the lowest O/U number of the series for Game 7…. 197.5 is actually 5 points lower than the next lowest O/U number.  

 Celtics and OVER


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NBA Betting Trends

Boston is 69-54 ATS versus Miami since 1996.
Miami is 20-8 ATS as an underdog this season.
Boston is 23-10 ATS after scoring 105 points or less.

Injury List

Heat: SG Tyler Herro (Quad) Quest

Celtics: SF Sam Hauser (shoulder) Out… The guys are all banged up but everyone will be available to play.  The same should be considered about the Heat.

Starting Lineups

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SFG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus

Coaches

Celtics: Ime “Best defense is my doing!” Udoka
Heat: Erik “I’ve had better players” Spoelstra



James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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