Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/25/2022

by James Q

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Spread and Trends to Watch - 05/25/2022

Game Time: 9:00 PM ET, Wednesday, May 25th, 2022 
Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida  
Where to Watch:  ESPN

Opening NBA Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Celtics -1.5 O/U 203.5
Fanduel:  Celtics -1.5 O/U 203.5
BetMGM: Celtics -1.5 O/U 203.5

NBA Standings

Whoa!  Back and Forth, Back and Forth.  An NBA Easterrn Conference Finals Game 5.  Mathematically this series must go 6 games… and could go 7.  The Boston Celtics have won twice and the Miami Heat have won twice.  The pressing detail about the series is that home court means nothing… health may not mean much… The Stars may not decide anything… The simple fact is that whichever team hits their 3-pointers tends to win.  This may spill over to who is making defensive stops… or which team carelessly turns the ball over… but at the end of the game… the 3-point percentage tends to decide it all.  These teams are built eerily similar.  A couple of name stars with NBA name recognition… surrounded by 3 and D type players.  The key advantage is Boston’s in that they are slightly deeper on the defensive side of the ball and currently a little less injured.  Miami has a great shooter in SF Duncan Robinson that has played very little in the Playoffs because he is a defensive liability.  The Celtics are favored by 1.5 points on Miami’s home court… the series is tied 2-2.  Let’s check the numbers and decide what is the great betting opportunity.

The Boston Celtics have won 6 of their last ten games.  Going 6-3-1 ATS.  5 Over and 5 Under.  The Celtics have a firm grasp on this series if they can get consistent play.  The two losses to Miami have seemed like just flat out bad games (or missed games) by members of the Celtics starting five.  Losing game 3 is actually the fault of Jaylen Brown who was the high scorer.  His turnovers negated his production… and Jayson Tatum simply had a terrible game between the missed shots and the turnovers himself.  But in Game 4 it all came together and the Celtics got the win 102-82… a simple 20 point cruise.  In the win, SF Jayson Tatum got 31 points on 8 of 16 shooting and 14 of 16 at the foul line. C Robert Williams III, SGF Jaylen Brown, SG Derrick White and backup G Payton Pritchard all landed 12-14 points.  PF once again vastly affected the game with only 5 points but 11 rebounds and 4 BIG blocked shots.  Horford’s game is allowing Robert Williams III to get plenty of rest… plus it keeps C Daniel Theis off the floor, which is good because Daniel can not guard Heat C Bam Adebayo.  

The Miami Heat have won 6 of their last 10 games. They went 6-4 ATS.  5 Over and 5 Under.  They only logged 82 points in a big loss to the Celtics in Game 4.  SF Jimmy Butler is clearly hobbled from his knee inflammation and had only 6 points with a -30 +/- ratio while on the floor.  It would have been better to simply keep him out entirely and give him some rest… but you never know.  That left SG/SF Victor Oladipo to act as the Heat’s star for the night.  Victor had 23 points and 6 assists.  Victor also had the Heat’s game-high in minutes with 30.  Game 5 should see him in the game from the start… unless Head Coach Erik Spoelstra wants to again go with a starting five that only produced 18 points combined!  The Heat as a team only shot 33% from the field after opening the game by missing their first 14 shots… a Heat team record that dates back to 1971.  Another tell of a historic bad game performance was that they were 8 of 14 from the foul line for only 57%.  The Heat will need more fire and urgency and may get it in Game 5.

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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview and Analysis

Recent Form

The Celtics are 2-2 in the series with 2-2 ATS.

The Heat are 2-2 in the series with 2-2 ATS.  

Offensive Analysis

The Boston Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 points per game, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5.

The Miami Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.00 points per game, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/To ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg. 
 

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game Prediction 


Our prediction for Wednesday, May 25th is…..  Celtics 115 - Heat 99

The Celtics have finally pushed through.  The Heat are too banged up and the Celtics are too ready to pounce on it.  Keep betting on the Celtics to win and cover as they have covered in every win and will eventually get the last win in this series.  The real bet here is the OVER… the O/U number has kept shrinking in this series… with a bad shooting Celtics game in Game 3 and a bad shooting Heat team in Game 4… If both teams shoot just reasonably well the OVER will cash easily.    Bet on the Celtics or Bet the Over…. Bet on both if you need to make up for losses in Game 3.  


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NBA Betting Trends

Boston is 22-8 ATS after a game in which the combined score was 205 or less.  
Miami is 5-1 ATS after scoring 90 points or less.
Boston is 68-53 ATS against Miami since 1996.
Boston is 4-1 ATS versus Miami at Miami the last 3 seasons.

Injury List

Celtics: PG Marcus Smart (ankle) Quest ** C Robert Williams III (knee) Quest ** SF Jayson Tatum (shoulder) Quest

Heat: SF Jimmy Butler (knee) Quest ** SG Gabe Vincent (hammy) Quest ** PG Kyle Lowry (hammy) Quest ** PG Max Strus (hammy) Quest ** PF PJ Tucker (knee) Quest ** SG Tyler Herro (quad) OUT

Starting Lineups

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Al Horford, C Robert Williams III, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Derrick White

Heat: C Bam Adebayo, PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, PG Kyle Lowry, SG Max Strus (this starting five includes the names of four guys who may not play or may not start because of recent injuries…. Where the team goes from the bench is anybody’s guess)

Coaches

Celtics: Ime Udoka
Heat: Erik Spoelstra


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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