Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Thursday, May 19th, 2022 

Venue:   FTX Center, Miami, Florida  

Where to Watch:  ESPN 

DraftKings:  Heat -4; O/U 207.5

Fanduel:  Heat -4; O/U 207.5

BetMGM: Heat -4.5; O/U 207.5

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference; 0-1 in series

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference; 1-0 in series

The NBA Eastern Conference Finals Games 2!  Game 1 is in the books.  It was not as close as the final score 118-107.  The Heat won by 11 points but it felt like 20 as the Celtics were unable to put up much of a fight.  There were some storylines at work in Game 1… specifically that a Celtics team that had shrank it’s rotation to 8 guys in the previous series against Milwaukee… was missing two important starters.  That is a serious speed bump to postseason success.  The Heat on the other hand did not dominate the Celtics… They actually went into halftime with the Heat down by 8 points.  It was the Heat’s offensive consistency and defensive prowess that simply ground the Celtics into dust by the final buzzer.  It is hard to say exactly why a team misses sooo many shots… Could the Celtics have been defended perfectly… or could they have been super tired from going 7 games against Giannis and the Bucks and then, while short-handed,  taking on a Heat team that has been resting for 5 full days?  Should we bet the Heat in Game 2?... Let's check the numbers, the spread (it won’t be 1.5 again), and decide if anything will change for the status of the missing players?

The Boston Celtics have won 6 of their last 10 games.  Going 6-3-1 ATS during that stretch.  4 Overs and 6 Unders.  In losing game 1 the Celtics got 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 steals, 0 blocked shots, and 0 assists from PG Marcus Smart and C/PF Al Horford COMBINED… because neither of them played.  Al Horford is in Covid protocols anxiously waiting to get a negative result on any of the dozen tests he takes per day… while Marcus Smart has a bone bruise in his ankle that required a boot and an MRI, and will need an abundance of caution.  The Celtics were bound to lose this game as Smart and Horford are key pieces to any Celtics success.  Seeing the Celtics without Horford and Smart is like seeing the Spice Girls without Posh and Sporty…. Sure they still have their best singers… but the group ain’t as pretty and can’t do all the routines.   In the loss SF Jayson Tatum had 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 6 assists… but only shot 10-21 from the field and 2-9 from 3-point range… he missed a boatload of shots late as his arms and legs betrayed him with their tiredness… SG Jaylen Brown scored 24 points with 10 rebounds… a valiant effort though he also missed seemingly every shot he put up in the 3rd quarter.  In most Celtics games these two stars combining for 53 points and 18 rebounds usually ensures a win… that is because Horford and Smart would have played lockdown defense and pitched in some extra points to boot.  The Celtics may soon regret having Tatum and Brown play 40+ minutes each in a Game 1 loss… while they didn’t know for sure that they would lose (the were winning for 60% of the game) they risked a boatload by wearing out their best guys early in the series.  

The Miami Heat won Game 1 of the Eatsern Conference Finals to the thunderous cheers of their adoring home fans.  They have won 7 of their last 10 games.  Going 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Miami Heat have a secret weapon.  A Playoff secret weapon.  SF Jimmy Butler has scored 40 points in just 6 games in his career…5 of those 40 point games have been in the Playoffs.  Jimmy Butler is a guy who truly has “another gear”.  He is a perfect two-way player… leading the defensive charge and at times dropping a huge offensive game when his team needs it the most.  The Philadelphia 76ers chose to build around Ben Simmons instead of Jimmy Butler because Butler was a few years older…. How did that work out?  Guards Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, and Max Strus all scored in double figures. C Bam Adabayo had 10 points, but 4 monstrous blocked shots… The Heat team as a whole had 12 BLOCKED SHOTS… Yes 9 blocked shots more than their regular season per game average!  The defense was locked in for the easy win.

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Boston is 59-35 on the season, but 52-40-2 ATS.  They have logged 45 Overs, 47 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 27-20 in road games.

Miami is 62-32 on the season, but 54-39-1 ATS.  They have notched 52 Overs and 42 Unders.  They are 36-12 in home games.

Boston is 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.

Miami is 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.  

 

Our prediction for Thursday, May 19th is…..  Celtics 109 - Heat 104

Yes.  The Celtics will win the series… so you may as well start betting on them now and getting the points.  WHY?... The Heat set a team best 12 blocked shots on the season, they grabbed 10 steals, they had 41 points from their star Jimmy Butler… They were facing a Celtics team that missed 43 shots… 23 of those misses from 3,, they were facing a Celtics team that was missing 2 starters ( will get back 1 for Game 2 and both for Game3).... And They went into halftime down by 8.  A shorthanded Celtics team playing against a Heat team running on full blast… almost won this game.  The desperately shorthanded Celtics were only a few made threes and a few made FT’s away from winning the game in which they saw the Heat’s BEST PUNCH.  Celtics fans should be ecstatic.

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Boston is 15-4 ATS off a road loss by 10 points over the last 3 seasons.

The Boston Celtics have 6 Overs and 0 Unders in the conference Finals the last 3 seasons.

The Miami Heat have 17 Overs and 7 Unders in any home game where the total is set between 200 - 209.5 the last 3 seasons.

Boston is 3-1 ATS versus Miami at Miami the last 3 seasons.

Celtics: PG Marcus Smart (foot) Quest ** C Al Horford (covid) Out

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (knee) Out 

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Grant Williams, C Robert Williams III, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Derrick White

Heat: SF Jimmy Butler, PF PJ Tucker, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gave Vincent, PG Max Strus

Celtics” Ime “get ready for some adjustments” Udoka

Heat: Erik “Been there, done that! Since 2008” Spoelstra