Game Time: 8:30 PM ET, Tuesday, May 17th, 2022 

Venue:   FTX Arena, Miami, Florida  

Where to Watch:  ESPN

DraftKings:  Heat -1.5; O/U 204

Fanduel:  Heat -1.5; O/U 204

BetMGM: Heat -1.5; O/U 203.5

Celtics: 51-31, 2nd place Eastern Conference

Heat: 53-29, 1st place Eastern Conference

A big night of basketball on ESPN!  First, at 8PM ET,  we get the NBA draft Lottery which is boring TV to be sure… but has tons of implications for the 7-8 teams who spent last season tanking with dreams of a rapid rebuild. We get to find out where everyone will be picking in the draft which will allow us to start dreaming of trade scenarios.  Then at 8:40 we get the first game of the NBA Playoffs Eastern Conference Finals!  The 2022 playoffs were loaded with intrigue and surprises… and the pre-season favorites are all now gone.  The teams left standing are not the Brooklyn Nets, not the Philadelphia 76ers, not last year’s Champs the Milwaukee Bucks… but the Miami Heat vs the Boston Celtics… who just so happen to be the #1 Seed vs the #2 Seed.  Funny how that tends to work out.  How did we get here?  The Boston Celtics swept the Brooklyn Nets 4-0 and dispatched the Milwaukee Bucks in a tight, full 7 game series that ended with a blowout win in Game 7.  The Celtics have faced 3 of the game's biggest stars and best players over the last 11 playoff games and managed to come out victorious.  The Miami Heat did not have as tough a road to hoe… The Heat beat a sappy Atlanta Hawks team that was going through serious chemistry issues (that will require a big trade to fix) 4-1 in the first round.  Then the Heat tackled the Philadelphia 76ers in six games for a 4-2 series in the second round.  True, the Sixers did have a ton of talent… but they also had a hurting C Joel Embiid and a rapidly wilting SG in future HOF'er James Harden.  The Heat and the Celtics share several things in common… both teams are deep, defensive, and loaded with chemistry and team first play.  So who do we put our money on in Game 1… especially since Vegas has bequeathed us a razor thin point spread?  Let’s look at the numbers.

The Boston Celtics have won 7 of their last 10 games and are 7-2-1 ATS.  Since New Year's Day… the Celtics have been one of the best betting opportunities in the NBA regular season and that has carried over into the NBA Playoffs. In the final game against the Milwaukee Bucks the Celtics got a blow-out win 109-81… no starter HAD to play 40 minutes but all five starters got close… the C’s were adamant about not letting the Bucks back into it.  The star of the show was not one of the Celtics Big Two stars or even their 3rd guy PG Marcus Smart… but role player PF Grant Williams who landed 27 points for a career high.  The man shot 7 of 18 from the 3-point line as the Bucks chose him to leave open and cover the stars.  Safe to say no one will try that approach again.  SF Jayson Tatum had a subdued 23 points as he faced traps and double teams all game. SG Jaylen Brown had 19 points and was clearly overworked trying to help on defense.  Brown will need several big games against the Heat if the Celtics are to win this series… It is safe to say that Grant Williams will not score that well on most nights.  The most impressive part of the Celtics defense was the way they stymied PF Giannis Antetokounmpo into only 25 points… and a flat out disastrous shooting night.  The Celtics ought to feel good about their chances with the Heat, since the Heat have zero scorers in the same class as Giannis or KD.

The Miami Heat have won 7 of their last 10 games and are 6-4 ATS during that stretch.  The Heat were also a very good betting opportunity in the regular season.  Something to immediately direct your attention to is that in the Playoffs the Heat have 2 Overs and 9 UNDERS.  The commitment to defense is real in Miami and they simply don’t score big unless the other team falls apart completely.  In their last win against the Philadelphia 76ers the Heat got 32 points out of their de facto best player… 2-way superstar SF Jimmy Butler.  There are three teams in the league that have spent many years in frustrating futility after choosing not to build around Jimmy… the Chicago Bulls, the Minnesota Timberwolves, and the Philadelphia 76ers.  If Philly had traded Ben Simmons instead of letting Jimmy Butler walk they would be champions This AND Last year! (they would not have had to overpay for Tobias Harris either).

Team Del Genio is 35-13-1 over the last 60 days of NBA betting! If you had followed his picks You would be up $20,710!!!!  Why don’t you take the money?   Get Team Del Genio’s picks now!  Don’t miss out on these great chances to beat your Book! Make winning the thing you do from now on!! Stay with BigAl.com throughout the NBA Playoffs and let’s grow that bankroll! You can discover the best  picks right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers. NCAAF, NFL, MLB, college football… get positive value from all your bets! Expert picks!  Fun fact… winning a wager is much better than making a wager!

The Celtics are 59-34 on the season, but 52-39-2 ATS.  They have logged 44 Overs, 47 Unders, and 2 Push.  They are 27-19 in road games.

The Miami Heat are 61-32 on the season, but 53-39-1 ATS.  They have notched 51 Overs and 42 Unders.  They are 35-12 in home games.

The Celtics are 12th in scoring with 111.8 ppg, 5th in rebounds with 46.1 per game, and 11th in AST/TO ratio with 1.8.  On defense they rank FIRST while holding opponents to 104.5 ppg.  This is sort of Miami’s nightmare to face a team that is stronger on defense.

The Heat are 17th in scoring with 110.0 ppg, 22nd in rebounds with 43.7 per game, and 19th in AST/To ratio 1.8. On defense they rank 4th while holding opponents to 105.6 ppg.   

 

Our prediction for Tuesday, May 17th is…..  Celtics 100 - Heat 98

Go for it.  Bet a parlay of the Celtics to win in an upset with the UNDER.  These two teams have been practically swimming in UNDERS throughout the Playoffs… and now the defensive titans will shut each other down.  I know we have a knee-jerk tendency to bet on the home team especially in a Conference Finals… but this series is different as the Celtics have technically been a better team than the Heat if you subtract the first two months of the 2021-2022 season.  Live a little.

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Boston is 66-51 ATS versus Miami since 1996.

Boston is 3-0 ATS versus Miami over the last 3 seasons at Miami.

Miami is 9-1 ATS after an upset win as a road underdog.

Miami is 30-15 ATS after playing any road game.  

Celtics: PG Marcus Smart (foot) Quest ** 

Heat: PG Kyle Lowry (knee) Quest

Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, PF Grant Williams, C Al Horford, SG Jaylen Brown, PG Marcus Smart

Heat: PF PJ Tucker, SF Jimmy Butler, C Bam Adebayo, SG Gabe Vincent, PG Max Strus

Celtics: Ime Udoka

Heat: Erik Spoelstra