Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/27/2023

Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Saturday, May 27, 2023

Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

Where to Watch:  TNT

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Celtics -3, Heat +3; Over/Under:  211 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Celtics -2.5, Heat +2.5; Over/Under:  211 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Celtics -2.5, Heat +2.5; Over/Under:  211.5 points

Boston Celtics:  57-25 (1st place, Atlantic Division)

Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Boston Celtics:  5-5 last 10

Miami Heat:  6-4 last 10

The Celtics finished the regular season with a 57-25 record overall and they were 25-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game winning streak with both wins coming against the Miami Heat in their last 2 games. In game 5 of this series, Derrick White led the team in points in that game with 24 while Marcus Smart was next on the team with 23 points. Jayson Tatum led the team in assists in that game with 11 while Al Horford led the team in rebounds with 11. They were 50.6% from the field, 41% from 3-point range, and 73.7% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.4 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 56-44 this season and their O/U record is 53-45-2.

The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 2 game losing streak with both losses coming against the Boston Celtics in their last 2 games. In game 5 of this series, Duncan Robinson led the team in points in that game with 18 while Bam Adebayo was next on the team with 16 points. Duncan Robinson led the team in assists in that game with 9 while Bam Adebayo led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 51.3% from the field, 39.1% from 3-point range, and 80% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 42-55-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-48.

The current betting odds have the Heat listed as a 3 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 6 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for the Eastern Conference finals of the NBA playoffs. The Heat are entering this game with a 3-2 series lead after jumping out to a big 3-0 series lead but blowing the last 2 games to make it close once again. The momentum has started to shift toward the Celtics in this series with their 2 wins in a row now but they still have to win 1 more road game to even this series up and the Heat have been a really good team at home in these playoffs, their only home loss coming in game 4 when they were already up 3-0 in the series by then. The Heat haven't really exerted a lot of energy in these 2 losses either with their star players not really having a big impact in the game, but this will be the game Jimmy Butler steps up on their home court and has another big game to close out the series and send the Celtics home here. The best way to place a bet here is on the Heat to cover the spread in this game and close out the series 4-2.

Celtics Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Saturday, May 27, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Heat 111 Celtics 99.

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Boston Celtics: 17-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 24-11 ATS off a home win. 17-5 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3. 9-0 UNDER when facing elimination in a playoff series.

Miami Heat: 5-11 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more. 2-6 ATS when attempting to close out a playoff series. 14-6 UNDER after scoring 100 points or less. 6-2 UNDER when attempting to close out a playoff series.

Boston Celtics:  M. Brogdon (SG) Ques Sat - Forearm. D. Gallinari (SF) out for season - Knee.

Miami Heat:  G. Vincent (SG) Ques Sat - Ankle. V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.

"It just says that our backs are against the wall and we’re sticking together and we’re competing at a high level to give ourselves a chance." - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s win against the Heat in their game on Thursday, game 5 of this series.

"One game doesn’t lead to the next game. It just doesn’t matter. It’s about collectively preparing and putting together a great game. We’ll play much better on Saturday. That’s all we just have to focus on right now.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s loss against the Celtics in their game on Thursday, game 5 of this series.

PG Marcus Smart

SG Derrick White

SF Jaylen Brown

PF Jayson Tatum

C Robert Williams III

PG Kyle Lowry

SG Max Strus

SF Jimmy Butler

PF Kevin Love

C Bam Adebayo

PPG: J. Tatum (30.1)

APG: M. Smart (6.3)

Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.8)

PPG: J. Butler (22.9)

APG: J. Butler (5.3)

Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:

Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (1st season)

Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)