Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Prediction, Preview and Odds - 05/23/2023

by Rod Pearson

Monday, May 22, 2023
Game Time: 8:30 pm ET, Tuesday, May 23, 2023
Venue:  Kaseya Center, Miami, FL
Where to Watch:  TNT


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Celtics +2, Heat -2; Over/Under:  215.5 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  Celtics +2, Heat -2; Over/Under:  215.5 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Celtics +1.5, Heat -1.5; Over/Under:  216.5 points

Season Record

Boston Celtics:  57-25 (1st place, Atlantic Division)
Miami Heat:  44-38 (1st place, Southeast Division)

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Recent Form
Boston Celtics:  4-6 last 10
Miami Heat:  8-2 last 10


Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Preview and Analysis


The Celtics finished the regular season with a 57-25 record overall and they were 25-16 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 3 game losing streak with all 3 losses coming against the Miami Heat in their last 3 games. In game 3 of this series, Jayson Tatum led the team in points in that game with 14 while Jaylen Brown, Grant Williams, and Payton Pritchard each were next on the team with 12 points. Marcus Smart led the team in assists in that game with 8 while Jayson Tatum led the team in rebounds with 10. They were 39.8% from the field, 26.2% from 3-point range, and 76.5% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 117.9 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 111.4 PPG against them. The Celtics have an ATS record of 54-44 this season and their O/U record is 53-43-2.



The Heat finished the regular season with a 44-38 record overall and they were 27-14 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. They are entering this game on a 4 game winning streak with wins coming against the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics in their last 3 games. In game 3 of this series, Gabe Vincent led the team in points in that game with 29 while Duncan Robinson was next on the team with 22 points. Jimmy Butler led the team in assists in that game with 6 while Jimmy Butler led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 56.8% from the field, 54.3% from 3-point range, and 81% from the free throw line with their shots in that game. Their offense is averaging 109.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 109.8 PPG against them. The Heat have an ATS record of 42-53-3 this season and their O/U record is 52-46.


Celtics vs Heat Prediction

The current betting odds have the Celtics listed as a 2 point underdog in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. This is game 4 of a 7-game series between the 2nd seeded Celtics and the 8th seeded Heat for the Eastern Conference finals of the NBA playoffs. The Heat are entering this game with a 3-0 series lead and have pretty much put this one out of reach for the Celtics. It is going to be tough for the Celtics to find the belief and the motivation here now that they are down 3-0 in the series but they have also played their best in the playoffs when facing elimination so expect them to push back hard in this game as they try to at least get 1 win in this series and start there. The Heat have been really hot in these playoffs going 8-2 over their last 10 games but they have been playing so well defensively in their games that they have used a lot of energy to keep the Celtics off the scoreboard and it will be hard for them to follow up with another performance like that after holding the Celtics to 105 points or less in their last 2 games. The stars have been quiet for the Celtics in this series but expect them to have an offensive explosion in this game now that they need it most. The Celtics need to win this game so they are going to throw everything they have at the Heat in this game. The best way to place a bet here is on the Celtics to cover the spread in this game.

Celtics Heat Prediction:  Our NBA Pick for Tuesday, May 23, 2023 (8:30 pm ET start time) is Celtics 124 Heat 112.
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NBA Betting Trends


Boston Celtics: 10-2 ATS after 3 or more consecutive losses. 8-2 ATS as a road underdog. 12-4 OVER when the total is 210 to 219.5. 19-8 OVER off a road loss by 10 points or more.

Miami Heat: 15-24 ATS as a home favorite. 0-9 ATS after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 8-1 OVER after allowing 105 points or less 2 straight games. 8-1 OVER when leading in a playoff series.

Key Injuries


Boston Celtics:  D. Gallinari (SF) out for season - Knee.

Miami Heat:  K. Love (PF) Ques Tues - Ankle. V. Oladipo (SG) out for season - Knee. T. Herro (SG) Early June - Hand.


Notable Quotes


“I just didn’t have them ready to play. Whatever it was, whether it was the starting lineup or an adjustment, I have to get them in a better place, ready to play. That’s on me.” - Joe Mazzulla after his team’s loss against the Heat in their game on Sunday, game 3 of this series.


“That was a solid, mature, professional approach. There's a lot of pent-up stuff here and we're getting closer, but we still have to finish this off.” - Erik Spoelstra after his team’s win against the Celtics in their game on Sunday, game 3 of this series.


Starting Lineups


Boston Celtics
PG Marcus Smart
SG Derrick White
SF Jaylen Brown
PF Jayson Tatum
C Robert Williams III

Miami Heat
PG Gabe Vincent
SG Max Strus
SF Jimmy Butler
PF Kevin Love
C Bam Adebayo

Statistical Leaders


Boston Celtics
PPG: J. Tatum (30.1)
APG: M. Smart (6.3)
Reb/G: J. Tatum (8.8)

Miami Heat
PPG: J. Butler (22.9)
APG: J. Butler (5.3)
Reb/G: B. Adebayo (9.2)

Coaches:
Boston Celtics: Joe Mazzulla (1st season)
Miami Heat: Erik Spoelstra (15th season)



Rod Pearson

About the Author:

Rod Pearson has been a rabid sports fan his entire life.  He grew up in Ontario, and was skilled in both hockey and baseball, and pitched in an elite baseball league for many years.  In 2022, Rod decided to hang up his glove, so that he could write about the sports he loves -- but from a gambling perspective.  Join Rod every day as he breaks down the games to find the best betting value.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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