by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Monday, Nov 22, 2021
Game Time: 12:00 pm ET, Friday, November 26, 2021
Venue: Dignity Health Sports Park, Carson, CA
Where to Watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: BSU -2.5, SDSU +2.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: BSU -2.5, SDSU +2.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: BSU -2.5, SDSU +2.5; Over/Under: 44.5 points
Season Record
Boise State Broncos: 7-4 (3rd place, MW Mountain)
San Diego State Aztecs: 10-1 (1st place, MW West)
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Boise State Broncos vs San Diego State Aztecs Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Boise State Broncos: won at home on Nov. 20 against the New Mexico Lobos 37-0.
San Diego State Aztecs: won on the road on Nov. 19 against the UNLV Rebels 28-20.
Boise State Broncos Analysis
BSU is coming into this college football game with a 7-4 record overall and they are 4-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 8th conference matchup of the year and they are currently 5-2 in their MWC games this season. They have won 5 of their last 6 games and are coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Hank Bachmeier played alright in that game but also struggled a bit as he completed 11/22 passes for 146 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. George Holani had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 114 yards on 14 carries while Jack Sears ran in 1 TD himself in that one. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 116 yards and 1 touchdown on 7 receptions. JL Skinner led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Ezekiel Noa led the defense in sacks in that game with 2 while Skinner came up with the only interception for them in that one. They have scored 334 points in their 11 games this season averaging 30.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 201 points against them allowing 18.3 PPG. Their offense is averaging 390.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 361.6 YPG.
San Diego State Aztecs Analysis
San Diego St is coming into this game with a 10-1 record overall and they are 5-1 in their home games this season where they will be in this game on Friday instead of Saturday. This will be the 8th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are currently 6-1 in their conference games this season. They only have 1 loss all season and are coming into this one on a 3 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Quarterback Lucas Johnson played alright in that game but he also struggled at times as he completed 18/24 passes for 192 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. Greg Bell led the team in rushing with 58 yards on 17 carries. Elijah Kothe led the receivers with 84 yards on 5 receptions while Jesse Matthews had 75 yards and 3 touchdowns on 9 receptions. Patrick McMorris led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 6 assisted ones. Keshawn Banks and Cameron Thomas both recorded the only sacks in that game with 1 each while Andrew Aleki and Seyddrick Lakalaka each came up with 1 interception for them in that one. They have scored 305 points in their 11 games this season averaging 27.7 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 191 points against them allowing 17.4 PPG. Their offense is averaging 328.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 313.9 YPG.
Boise State vs San Diego State Prediction
BSU is coming into this game as a 2.5 point favorite and the point total set at 44.5 with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook and other various bookmakers. This game is very important as it has major implications to both divisions of the Mountain West Conference as to who will go to the title game. Both of these teams have been playing well in recent games but BSU has been better than SDSU has been. SDSU is known for having a great defense but it did not hold up well when they played Fresno State allowing 30 points in that game. They also did not play well in their last game as they allowed UNLV to score 20 points against them. Their offense is not that great either as they have scored no more than 20 points in a lot of their games this season. They will have to win the game with their defense and if they do not and fall behind in this game, they will not be able to come back. The best bet to place in this game is on BSU to cover the spread here as they also have a good defense that shut out New Mexico in their last game, but their offense can also score a lot and has been recently.
Boise State San Diego State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, November 26, 2021 (12:00 pm ET start time) is BSU 34 SDSU 20.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Boise State Broncos: 19-10 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. 164-121 ATS in all games. 132-105 ATS as a favorite. 59-42 ATS as a road favorite. 79-51 ATS in road games. 103-77 ATS against conference opponents.
San Diego State Aztecs: 15-30 O/U when the line is +3 to -3. 106-156 O/U in all games. 29-60 O/U when the total is between 42.5 and 49. 56-78 O/U as an underdog. 28-21 O/U as a home underdog. 58-72 O/U in home games. 71-105 O/U against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Boise State Broncos: W. Farrar (OL) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. S. Cobbs (WR) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury. K. Holomalia-Gonzalez (OL) Out Indefinitely - Undisclosed injury.
San Diego State Aztecs: Z. Thomas (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury.
Notable Quotes
"The guys have purpose, plain and simple. The commitment to how we're going to show up with a certain purpose every single day and how we're going to work for the team and how we're going to do it for the team, that's the bottom line.” - Andy Avalos on his team’s shutout win against New Mexico in their last game.
"I didn't think we played Aztec football, especially on the defensive side. We've got to do a better job. We can't give up big plays thrown over our heads. We've got to coach better. We as a staff, we got to look at some things." - Brady Hoke on his team’s close win against UNLV in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Boise State Broncos
WR Octavius Evans
WR Stefan Cobbs
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Smith, Riley
QB Bachmeier, Hank
RB Holani, George
San Diego State Aztecs
WR Shavers, Tyrell
WR Jesse Matthews
WR Busbee, BJ
TE Daniel Bellinger
TE Rudolph, Jay
QB Johnson, Lucas
RB Bell, Greg
RB Byrd, Jordan
Statistical Leaders
Boise State Broncos
Passing: H. Bachmeier (2858)
Rushing: G. Holani (499)
Receiving: K. Shakir (1043)
Touchdowns: A. Van Buren (9)
San Diego State Aztecs
Passing: L. Johnson (993)
Rushing: G. Bell (905)
Receiving: E. Kothe (334)
Touchdowns: G. Bell (7)
Coaches:
Boise State Broncos: Andy Avalos (1st season)
San Diego State Aztecs: Brady Hoke (2nd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
