by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Sep 03, 2022
Game time: 10:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Reser Stadium, Corvallis, OR
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oregon State -2.5, total 56
FanDuel: Oregon State -2.5, total 56.5
BetMGM: Oregon State -2.5, total 56.5
Caesars: Oregon State -2.5, total 56
2021 season record
Boise State: 7-5 (5-3 Mountain West), reached Arizona Bowl but cancelled due to COVID
Oregon State: 7-6 (5-4 Pac-12), lost Jimmy Kimmel Bowl to Utah State
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Boise State - Oregon State preview, analysis and prediction
It’s been a long time since the Boise State Broncos were underdogs in anything. It’s also been quite a long time since Boise State had as disappointing a season. Forget for a moment that the Broncos couldn’t play their bowl game due to COVID, but the Broncos finished 7-5 and didn’t win the Mountain West. That alone is something worth having a shocked face over.
But as head coach Andy Avalos leads Boise State into Year 2 of his run, it’s not going to be an easy start to the season for the Broncos, and they probably want it that way. Boise State opens the season Saturday against the Oregon State Beavers, a team that played as well as it could’ve and nearly made a late charge to the Pac-12 title game a year ago with an interesting offense.
Boise State had a combined record of 92-47, which boasted the second highest winning percentage in the nation. To still go 7-5, all things considered, is a miracle despite the underwhelming finish to the season. The Broncos still reached bowl eligibility for the 24th consecutive season.
But even for Boise State, as prestigious a program as it has become, opening the year with three out of four on the road is a tall task. Boise State will actually open conference play in Week 2 against New Mexico, but will travel to Albuquerque on a short week. After that, it’ll be the home opener Sept. 17 against UT Martin, followed by a trip to El Paso to face UTEP.
The Broncos will have senior quarterback Hank Bachmeier at the helm once again after leading the Broncos last year. Bachmeier averaged 256.6 yards per game last season but did not get a consistent running game. Redshirt junior George Holani returns after averaging just 63.2 yards on the ground a year ago. With four seniors and one junior on the offensive line, that should be a point of improvement for the Broncos going into this season.
Boise State opened at 2.5-point underdogs and that line has stayed the same, primarily for the fact that the Broncos are on the road. But they’ve won six of their last seven season openers, with the lone loss coming last year against UCF. Three of those wins, however, have come on the road and the Broncos are 17-4 on the road in the last four seasons.
As it pertains to the Beavers, they’re coming off an appearance in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl, which is still a hilarious concept but a postseason victory nonetheless. The Beavers are in a prime position to capitalize off that success, particularly with the success of junior quarterback Chance Nolan after leading Oregon State to that bowl victory.
The Beavers couldn’t have made that game without their perfect 6-0 mark at home last year, just the eighth time in school history Oregon State went perfect at home and the first time since 2000. Ten All-Conference selections return to the Beavers, including second-team all-conference member Jack Colletto.
This is a group with a year of good experience under its belt with coach Jonathan Smith leading the charge. But against a quality opponent like Boise State, this will be a tough task for Oregon State, even if the Corvallis advantage is in its favor.
Prediction
Boise State has been one of the best against the spread, especially as an underdog, for a long time. It hasn’t happened often, but the Broncos are 32-16 ATS as an underdog since 1992, and 13-3 in their last 16 when a dog of 7 points or less. I’m intrigued to see if that veteran offensive line can actually control the running game, but I trust Bachmeier to get the job done in a hostile environment. Boise State wins by 7
Betting trends
Boise State is 79-52 ATS on the road since 1992.
Boise State is 61-44 ATS in non-conference games since 1992.
Oregon State is 8-3 ATS at home the past three seasons.
Oregon State is 4-1 ATS as a home favorite the past three years.
2021 statistical leaders
Boise State
Passing: Hank Bachmeier -- 3,079 yards, 20 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: George Holani -- 569 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Khalil Shakir -- 1,117 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Scott Matlock -- 7 sacks
Oregon State
Passing: Chance Nolan -- 2,677 yards, 19 TD, 10 INT
Rushing: BJ Baylor -- 1,337 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Trevon Bradford -- 631 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Avery Roberts -- 123 tackles
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
