by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Nov 04, 2021
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 6, 2021
Venue: Bulldog Stadium, Fresno, CA
Where to Watch: CBS Sports
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: BSU +5, Fresno -5; Over/Under: 59.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: BSU +5, Fresno -5; Over/Under: 59 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: BSU +5.5, Fresno -5.5; Over/Under: 58.5 points
Season Record
Boise State Broncos: 4-4 (3rd place, MW Mountain)
Fresno State Bulldogs: 7-2 (1st place, MW West)
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Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Boise State Broncos: won on the road on Oct. 30 against the Colorado State Rams 28-19.
Fresno State Bulldogs: won on the road on Oct. 30 against the San Diego State Aztecs 30-20.
Boise State Broncos Analysis
BSU is coming into this game with a 4-4 record overall and they are 3-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. This will be their 5th conference matchup this year and they are currently 2-2 in their conference games this season. They have won 2 of their last 3 games and are coming into this one off of a win in their last game against CSU. They won that game 28-19 after trailing in the first half but they managed to pull off the second half comeback and win the game. Hank Bachmeier played well in that game as he completed 21/32 passes for 253 yards and 4 touchdowns. Cyrus Habibi-Likio led the team in rushing with 61 yards on 19 carries while Octavius Evans ran in the only TD on the ground for them in that one. Khalil Shakir had a nice day as he led the receivers with 118 yards on 9 receptions while Tyneil Hopper, Stefan Cobbs, and Evans all caught 1 touchdown pass each in that one. Tyreque Jones led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 4 assisted ones. Isaiah Bagnah recorded the only sack in that game for them while no one on the defense was able to come away with an interception for them in that one. They have scored 234 points in their 8 games this season averaging 29.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 174 points against them allowing 21.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 376.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 404.1 YPG.
Fresno State Bulldogs Analysis
Fresno State is coming into this game with a 7-2 record overall and they are 4-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. This will be the 6th conference matchup on their schedule this year and they are leading the way right now with a 4-1 record in their conference games this season. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and are coming into this game on a 3 game winning streak. They won their last game against SDSU 30-20 in a game that they jumped out to a large lead in early and it was just too much for SDSU to overcome. Jake Haener had a good game in that one as he completed 25/42 passes for 306 yards and 1 touchdown. Jordan Mims had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 186 yards and 2 touchdowns on 29 carries. Josh Kelly also had a nice day as he led the receivers with 107 yards on 7 receptions while Jalen Cropper was right behind him with 84 yards on 6 receptions. Keric Wheatfall caught the only touchdown pass for them in that one. Evan Williams led the defense in that game with 11 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. No one on the defense recorded a sack in that game and it was Williams who also came away with the lone interception for them in that one. They have scored 315 points in their 9 games this season averaging 35 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 187 points against them allowing 20.8 PPG. Their offense is averaging 480.6 YPG while their defense is allowing 346.8 YPG.
Boise State vs Fresno State Prediction
Boise State is coming into this game as a 5 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. They have been playing well in their recent games and they tend to play better on the road this season as opposed to at home. They will come to play this rivalry game with a lot of heart and will make it very difficult for Fresno to win this game. Fresno is coming off of a game where they handed SDSU their first loss of the season and took over their 1st place spot in the division so this could be a bit of a let down spot for them. The best bet to place in this game is on BSU to cover the spread here as this should be a very close game.
Boise State Fresno State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 6, 2021 (7:00 pm ET start time) is Fresno 34 BSU 31.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Boise State Broncos: 14-10 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. 162-120 ATS in all games. 51-38 ATS when the total is between 56.5 and 63. 31-16 ATS as an underdog. 18-9 ATS as a road underdog. 78-51 ATS in road games. 101-76 ATS against conference opponents.
Fresno State Bulldogs: 24-29 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 91-101 ATS as a favorite. 53-60 ATS as a home favorite. 115-118 ATS against conference opponents.
Key Injuries
Boise State Broncos: K. Holomalia-Gonzalez (OL) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury. K. Freeborn (NT) Ques Sat - Ankle injury. A. Kelemete (DE) Ques Sat - Undisclosed injury.
Fresno State Bulldogs: R. Rivers (RB) Prob Sat - Leg injury. J. Cropper (WR) Prob Sat - Knee injury.
Notable Quotes
"They deserved it tonight. They deserved the success they had individually, but more importantly, collectively together as a team. When we needed a huge special teams play there at the end of the game, we got that." - Andy Avalos on his team’s win in their last game.
"We knew there were going to be some tough yards earned, but we could get a lot of big plays up top which is what we did." - Jordan Mims on their win over SDSU in their last game.
Starting Lineups
Boise State Broncos
WR Evans, Octavius
WR Cobbs, Stefan
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Smith, Riley
QB Bachmeier, Hank
RB Holani, George
Fresno State Bulldogs
WR Wheatfall, Keric
WR Kelly, Josh
WR Cropper, Jalen
TE Rodriguez, Juan
QB Haener, Jake
RB Rivers, Ronnie
Statistical Leaders
Boise State Broncos
Passing: H. Bachmeier (2204)
Rushing: C. Habibi-Likio (242)
Receiving: K. Shakir (777)
Touchdowns: A. Van Buren (6)
Fresno State Bulldogs
Passing: J. Haener (2888)
Rushing: R. Rivers (573)
Receiving: J. Cropper (664)
Touchdowns: J. Cropper (10)
Coaches:
Boise State Broncos: Andy Avalos (1st season)
Fresno State Bulldogs: Kalen DeBoer (2nd season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
