Game Time: 2:00 pm ET, Friday, December 31, 2021
Venue: Arizona Stadium, Tucson, AZ
Where to Watch: BarstoolSports.com
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: BSU -8, CMU +8; Over/Under: 54.5 points
Bet365: Point Spread: BSU -7.5, CMU +7.5; Over/Under: 55 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: BSU -8.5, CMU +8.5; Over/Under: 55 points
Boise State Broncos: 7-5 (3rd place, MW Mountain)
Central Michigan Chippewas: 8-4 (2nd place, MAC West)
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Boise State Broncos vs Central Michigan Chippewas Preview and Analysis
Boise State Broncos: lost on the road on Nov. 26 against the San Diego State Aztecs 27-16.
Central Michigan Chippewas: won at home on Nov. 26 against the Eastern Michigan Eagles 31-10.
Boise State Broncos Analysis
BSU is coming into this game after finishing the regular season with a 7-5 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game of the season in this game. They have won 4 of their last 5 games but are coming into this one off of a loss in their last game which snapped a 4 game winning streak that they were on. Their 4 wins were against the Colorado State Rams, the Fresno State Bulldogs, the Wyoming Cowboys, and the New Mexico Lobos while their loss came against SDSU in their last game. Hank Bachmeier completed 21/40 passes for 222 yards, 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in that one while Jack Sears also threw 2 passes and 1 interception as well. George Holani led the team in rushing with 70 yards on 20 carries. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 74 yards and 1 touchdown on 6 receptions while Holani had 52 yards on 6 receptions and Stefan Cobbs also had 6 catches for 40 yards. Kurt Rafdal caught the other touchdown pass in that one. Caleb Biggers led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one. Brandon Hawkins and Demetri Washington both recorded the only sacks in that game for them with 1 each while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception in that one. They have scored 350 points in their 12 games this season averaging 29.2 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 228 points against them allowing 19 PPG. Their offense is averaging 384.5 YPG while their defense is allowing 365.6 YPG.
Central Michigan Chippewas Analysis
CMU is coming into this game after finishing their season with an 8-4 record overall and they will be playing the first neutral site game on their schedule this season in this game. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and are coming into this one on a 4 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Northern Illinois Huskies while their 6 wins in that span came against the Ohio Bobcats, the Toledo Rockets, the Western Michigan Broncos, the Kent State Golden Flashes, the Ball State Cardinals, and EMU in their last game. Daniel Richardson completed 12/24 passes for 130 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception in that one. Lew Nichols had a very nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 192 yards and 1 touchdown on 44 carries. JaCorey Sullivan led the receivers with 46 yards and 2 touchdowns on 4 receptions while Kalil Pimpleton also had 4 catches for 38 yards. George Douglas led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 2 assisted ones. Tyrece Woods Jr. led the defense in sacks in that game with 1.5 while no one on the defense was able to come up with an interception in that one. They have scored 396 points in their 12 games this season averaging 33 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 314 points against them allowing 26.2 PPG. Their offense is averaging 451.9 YPG while their defense is allowing 394.4 YPG.
Boise State vs Central Michigan Prediction
CMU is coming into this Barstool Sports Arizona Bowl as an 8 point underdog with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Both of these teams had great seasons and finished their seasons off strong winning 4 of their last 5 games. They are also very similar on the stat sheet but Boise State has allowed less points per game than CMU has. Even though they have allowed about 7 points more, they are only allowing 30 yards more per game than BSU is. BSU is letting teams move the ball against them but then stopping them in the red zone and holding them to less points but CMU has a very good offense, much better than Boise State's offense, and if BSU is going to let them move the ball down the field then CMU is going to score points on them. This game could turn into a shootout as both defenses are not that great and if that happens CMU has a stronger offense and will be able to edge BSU out. The best bet to place in this game is on CMU to cover the spread here and keep this a close game.
Boise State Central Michigan Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Friday, December 31, 2021 (2:00 pm ET start time) is CMU 38 BSU 34.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Boise State Broncos: 2-9 O/U in all games. 2-7 O/U as a favorite. 7-14 O/U after playing a conference game. 10-17 O/U in games played on turf. 3-12 O/U off 1 or more consecutive unders. 2-10 O/U after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread. 6-11 O/U after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers.
Central Michigan Chippewas: 20-11 ATS in all games. 6-3 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 14-7 ATS after playing a conference game. 11-5 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games. 19-10 ATS in games played on turf. 5-2 ATS off a home win against a conference rival. 12-5 ATS in the second half of the season.
Boise State Broncos: K. Freeborn (NT) Out indefinitely - Ankle injury. T. Eiguren (TE) Ques Jan 1 - Undisclosed injury. O. Evans (WR) Ques Jan 1 - Illness.
Central Michigan Chippewas: J. Keller (QB) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. K. Lewis (RB) Out indefinitely - Knee injury. W. Reid (DB) Out indefinitely - Personal.
"When we've been successful, it all starts up front. Those DBs standing back there, they don't want to cover all day and they don't want guys running full speed coming out of the backfield running full shoot on them." - Andy Avalos after signing day on the position that they felt they needed to improve at.
"We're very excited about this class. We've added size and length in the trenches. We've got some physicality. We've got some linebackers that are going to be really good in the run game, defensive backs that are going to help us on the back end because they have the ability to cover and defend the run.” - Jim McElwain on their improvements to the team after signing day.
Boise State Broncos
WR Octavius Evans
WR Stefan Cobbs
WR Shakir, Khalil
TE Smith, Riley
QB Bachmeier, Hank
RB Holani, George
Central Michigan Chippewas
WR Kalil Pimpleton
WR Sullivan, JaCorey
WR Dallas Dixon
TE Wilson, Joel
QB Richardson, Daniel
RB Lew Nichols III
Boise State Broncos
Passing: H. Bachmeier (3080)
Rushing: G. Holani (569)
Receiving: K. Shakir (1117)
Touchdowns: A. Van Buren (9)
Central Michigan Chippewas
Passing: D. Richardson (2392)
Rushing: L. Nichols (1708)
Receiving: K. Pimpleton (929)
Touchdowns: L. Nichols (17)
Boise State Broncos: Andy Avalos (1st season)
Central Michigan Chippewas: Jim McElwain (3rd season)