Boise State Broncos vs BYU Cougars Game Preview and Prediction - 10/09/2021

by Amedeus Mastrangelo

Game Time: 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, October 9, 2021
Venue:  LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT
Where to Watch:  ABC


Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  BSU +4, BYU -4; Over/Under:  56 points
Bet365:  Point Spread:  BSU +4, BYU -4; Over/Under:  56 points
BetMGM:  Point Spread:  BSU +4, BYU -4; Over/Under:  56 points

Season Record

Boise State Broncos:  2-3 (1st place, MW Mountain)
BYU Cougars:  5-0 (1st place, FBS Independents)
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Boise State Broncos vs BYU Cougars Preview and Analysis

Recent Form
Boise State Broncos:  lost at home on Oct. 2 against the Nevada Wolf Pack 41-31.
BYU Cougars:  won on the road on Oct. 1 against the Utah State Aggies 34-20.

Boise State Broncos Analysis

BSU is coming into this game with a 2-3 record overall and they are 1-1 in their road games this season where they will be in this game. They are getting a break from their conference matchups here as this is a non-conference game, they are already off to a 1-1 start in their conference games this season. Their 2 wins came against the UTEP Miners and the Utah State Aggies while their 3 losses came against the UCF Knights, the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and against Nevada in their last game. Hank Bachmeier played well in that game as he completed 34/47 passes for 388 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception. Cyrus Habibi-Likio led the team in rushing with 46 yards on 10 carries but they did not have much of a ground game in that one. The receiving corps had a very nice day though as Stefan Cobbs led the team with 132 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns on 10 receptions. Octavius Evans also had a nice day with 85 yards receiving and 1 TD on 6 receptions while Khalil Shakir had 4 catches for 1 TD and 70 yards receiving. Riley Whimpey led the defense with 6 solo tackles and 1 assisted one while JL Skinner was right behind him with 6 solo tackles. Isaiah Bagnah and Ezekiel Noa both had 5 solo tackles in that game as well but it was Bagnah who led the team in sacks with 3 in that game. Dylan Herberg recorded the only other sack in the game for the defense but no one was able to come away with an interception in that one. They have scored 163 points in their first 5 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 114 points against them. Their offense is averaging 386.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 414.6 YPG.

BYU Cougars Analysis

BYU is coming into this game with a 5-0 record overall and they are 3-0 in their home games this season where they will be in this game. Their 5 wins came against the Arizona Wildcats, the Utah Utes, the Arizona State Sun Devils, the USF Bulls and against USU in their last game. Baylor Romney played well in that game as he completed 15/19 passes for 187 yards and 1 touchdown but he had to leave that game early due to an injury. Tyler Allgeier really carried the team in this game as he led the team in rushing with a massive 218 yards and 3 touchdowns himself on 22 carries. He was basically their entire ground game in that one. Puka Nacua led the receivers with 62 yards on 3 receptions in what was overall, a quiet day for the receiving corps. Ben Bywater led the defense with 7 solo tackles, 2 assisted ones and 1 sack while Ammon Hannemann was right behind him with 6 solo tackles. Uriah Leiataua and Caden Haws both had 1 sack each as well in that game while Malik Moore and Jakob Robinson both had 1 interception each. They have scored 146 points in their first 5 games and they have allowed their opponents to score 97 points against them. Their offense is averaging 403.2 YPG while their defense is allowing 377.6 YPG.


Boise State vs BYU Prediction

BYU has a very good offense and defense this year. Their starting quarterback is questionable for this game but they have shown that it is not a big deal as their run game is great. Boise State has kept a lot of their games close but this will be the best team they have faced all year and they are on the road for this game. They give up a lot of yards on defense to their opponents while teams have had trouble scoring on the BYU defense this year. Between their defense and their great running game, BYU should be fine in this game whether their starting QB plays or not, they will find a way to win this game against a Boise State team that is hovering below .500. The best bet to make in this game is on BYU to cover the short spread here.
Boise State BYU Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, October 9, 2021 (3:30 pm ET start time) is BYU 34 BSU 27.
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NCAAF Betting Trends

Boise State Broncos: 160-119 ATS in all games. 30-16 ATS as an underdog. 76-51 ATS in road games.
BYU Cougars: 112-128 ATS as a favorite. 79-91 ATS in home games. 37-51 ATS off a road win.

Key Injuries

Boise State Broncos:  S. Igiehon (NT) day-to-day - Personal. H. Gums Jr. (NT) day-to-day - Knee injury. S. Cobbs (WR) day-to-day - Ankle injury.
BYU Cougars:  B. Romney (QB) day-to-day - Head injury. K. Ellis (DB) day-to-day - Neck injury. J. Empey (OL) day-to-day - Undisclosed injury.

Players to Watch

Boise State Broncos: Hank Bachmeier is one player to watch here. He played great in their last game and he will be looking to continue that play in this game. If they are to pull off a big upset in this game it starts with him so look for him to make some big plays in this game.
BYU Cougars: Tyler Allgeier is one player to watch here. He leads his team in rushing yards and in touchdowns scored this season. He is coming off of a massive game where he rushed for over 200 yards. With the QB situation being unknown, they will definitely lean on him in this game. Look for him to get a lot of work here.

Notable Quotes

“We all know what the standard is here, and that is not it. It starts with me, and we have to re-establish the foundation of how we take care of the ball and how we operate.” - Andy Avalos on Boise State having their worst start to the college football season in 20 years.
“As far as right now, they’re all still in contention to play this Saturday. So until we practice and get a look at them, no one’s been taken off. As of today. everyone’s still available to play.” - Kalani Sitake on the quarterback situation coming into this game against BSU this week.

Starting Lineups

Boise State Broncos
WR Evans, Octavius 
WR Cobbs, Stefan 
WR Shakir, Khalil 
TE Smith, Riley 
QB Bachmeier, Hank 
RB Holani, George 
BYU Cougars
WR Romney, Gunner 
WR Pau'u, Neil 
WR Nacua, Puka 
TE Rex, Isaac 
QB Hall, Jaren 
RB Allgeier, Tyler 
FB Wake, Masen 

Statistical Leaders

Boise State Broncos
Passing: H. Bachmeier (1520)
Rushing: G. Holani (123)
Receiving: K. Shakir (518)
Touchdowns: K. Shakir (4)
Sacks: I. Bagnah (5)
Tackles: J. Skinner (41)
BYU Cougars
Passing: J. Hall (561)
Rushing: T. Allgeier (569)
Receiving: N. Pau'u (281)
Touchdowns: T. Allgeier (7)
Sacks: U. Leiataua (2.5)
Tackles: B. Bywater (25)
Boise State Broncos: Andy Avalos (1st season)
BYU Cougars: Kalani Sitake (6th season)

Weather Forecast

54 degrees F showers, 77% humidity, 40% chance of rain, up to 8 mph wind speeds W.

Amedeus Mastrangelo

About the Author:

Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.

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