Boise State Broncos vs. Air Force Falcons: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 10/22/2022

Time: 7 p.m. ET

Venue: Falcon Stadium, USAF Academy, CO

Where to watch: CBS Sports Network

DraftKings: Air Force -2.5

FanDuel: Air Force -3

BetMGM: Air Force -3

Caesars: Air Force -3

Boise State: 4-2 (3-0 Mountain West)

Air Force: 5-2 (2-2 Mountain West)

Boise State: won 40-20 vs. Fresno State

Air Force: won 42-7 at UNLV

Shame on you for not taking the Boise State Broncos seriously. Don’t you have any manners? This team has always found a way to stay competitive within its own conference and has started 3-0 in Mountain West play because of it. But now comes what might be their most difficult challenge this season to this point when they play the Air Force Falcons on Saturday, fresh off a 42-7 win at UNLV last week in what might have been a statement game for the Falcons.

Boise State has reeled off back-to-back wins at home over San Diego State and Fresno State after losing 27-10 to UTEP on Sept. 23. It’s been the return of the offense and the stingy defense, which at this time of year usually comes out for the Broncos. This is a group currently averaging 27 points and giving up just 19, and both of those elements have been shown heavily over the last couple of weeks, more notably in that Fresno State victory. Boise State had 443 yards of total offense and turned the ball over just once while holding onto it for 34:35. Mainly, it’s been because of the running game. Starting running back George Holani ran for 157 yards on 17 carries, while Ashton Jeanty ran for 109 yards and a touchdown.

"It's all three phases of the game," Boise State coach Andy Avalos said. "All three phases aren't always going to be perfect, but when all three phases are clicking, I think we've found that we've got a pretty good team. …It's awesome to see how it's all come together now."

This team is fun when it’s clicking like this, especially in the running game. The offense was not able to hit its stride at all last year and had to rely on the defense. That’s not the case this year with Boise State running the ball down the opposing defense’s throats. This week will be no easy task with an Air Force team that has been so good defensively while dominating on the ground offensively. Air Force is coming off a dominant victory against the Rebels in Las Vegas by way of running the football. The Falcons ran the ball 76 times for 406 yards and six touchdowns, four of them coming from running back Brad Roberts.

The one important thing to note here is Air Force did not get a UNLV team at full strength. The Rebels were without quarterback Doug Brumfield and lead running back Aidan Robbins left the game midway through, as well. But that’s how good Air Force is: They were able to capitalize and not keep UNLV in the game longer than it should’ve. That bodes well against a Boise State team that can be one-dimensional in of its own. But that’s the kind of game you should expect in the cold in Colorado Springs, to be exact. 

The one benefit from Air Force playing in cold weather is it can control the tempo and clock in this kind of game. This has all the makings to be a game where Air Force dominates if they can stop Boise State’s ground game. Air Force by 17

Boise State is 12-12 ATS in its last 24 games overall.

Boise State is 6-5 ATS in its last 11 on the road.

Boise State is 1-5 ATS off two straight conference wins over the last three years.

Air Force is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 home games.

Air Force is 6-1 ATS after failing to cover in two of its last three.

Passing: Hank Bachmeier -- 497 yards, 6 TD, 3 INT

Rushing: George Holani -- 549 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Latrell Caples -- 171 yards, 2 TD

Passing: Haaziq Daniels -- 483 yards, 5 TD, 1 INT

Rushing: Brad Roberts -- 853 yards, 12 TD

Receiving: David Cormier -- 224 yards, 3 TD