Big Ten Remaining Title Game and CFP Paths

The Big Ten still has six teams with just one loss in conference play heading into the final weekend in October. Only two teams will play for the Big Ten Championship while it remains to be seen how many CFP teams come from the conference as well. The conference has won three consecutive CFP championships and had three teams seeded in the top 5 in last season’s CFP bracket, but that seems like an unlikely scenario this season. 

UCLA 5-0 (Kalshi 18% to Win Big Ten – 48% to make title game)

UCLA was not on anyone’s list as a Big Ten and CFP threat. The Bruins are 7-0 for an incredible start under new head coach Bob Chesney. The highlight win at Oregon came against a backup quarterback and that win is decreasing in value, but the remaining Big Ten path is manageable. UCLA has road games at Minnesota and at Michigan with home games vs. Illinois and the finale vs. USC. The Bruins are playing a non-conference game next week with Nevada and UCLA won’t be a heavy favorite in any of the remaining Big Ten games. Running the table isn’t completely unrealistic and a path where UCLA is in the Big Ten championship at 12-0 or 11-1 looks very possible. 

Ohio State 4-0 (Kalshi 43% to Win Big Ten – 68% to make title game)

What Ohio State looks like for a full game without Julian Sayin remains to be seen and the remaining schedule for the Buckeyes in Big Ten play is rather difficult. Wins at Iowa and at Indiana are noteworthy results head-to-head with other possible top tier Big Ten teams but going 5-0 in the remaining games to reach another Big Ten Championship game isn’t a given. This week’s game at USC Halloween night could be a challenge before a November run through Oregon, Northwestern, at Nebraska, and then the finale hosting Michigan. While USC and Oregon look less formidable than expected, Northwestern and Nebraska look like difficult teams to beat this season. Having a potential tiebreaker over Indiana may end up as a big advantage for the Buckeyes as the market suggests. 

Indiana 4-1 (Kalshi 36% to Win Big Ten – 43% to make title game)

The Hoosiers escaped again last week at Michigan to move to 4-1 in Big Ten play with three one-score wins and the big one-score loss to Ohio State. Losing that tiebreaker may keep Indiana out of the Big Ten title game in many scenarios, but Indiana would likely still be a CFP team if they reach 11-1, even if the win column may look a bit lacking. The remaining schedule is quite favorable with three of the final four at home hosting Minnesota, USC, and Purdue with a road trip at Washington in the second to last game of the regular season. It is somewhat difficult to see Indiana losing any of those games, but the Hoosiers won’t control their own destiny to get back to Indianapolis. 

Northwestern 3-1 (Kalshi 2% to Win Big Ten – 14% to make title game)

The Wildcats have a difficult remaining schedule and while Northwestern has looked the part, the wins over Penn State, Michigan State, and Rutgers won’t impress the selection committee. Northwestern still plays road games at Oregon, Ohio State, and Minnesota, while the last two home games are against Iowa and Illinois. If Northwestern wins out, they will have earned a CFP spot but it doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario, even if this is a team that should be respected as a threat in every remaining game. 

Minnesota 3-1 (Kalshi <1% to Win Big Ten – <1% to make title game)

The Gophers have picked up a few nice wins this season including narrow home wins over Michigan and Iowa. The remaining schedule for Minnesota is incredibly difficult as even at 5-2 overall already, a bowl bid isn’t assured as Minnesota isn’t likely to be favored in any of the five remaining games. Minnesota has proven good enough to play spoiler on the right day and they will get a chance to make a splash as four of the remaining five games are against teams that are also on this list. 

Wisconsin 3-1 (Kalshi 5% to Win Big Ten – 12% to make title game)

The Badgers have an enviable remaining schedule with the most difficult game next week at Iowa. A minor upset there and Wisconsin is 6-2 heading into a November run that features Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota, making 10-2 not out of the question. Wisconsin has lost to UCLA already, however as a Big Ten title game position is an extreme long shot and if the Badgers were to reach 10-2, the head-to-head losses to a potential 2-loss Notre Dame or 2-loss UCLA team would be damaging in the comparison. Credit Wisconsin for using a favorable schedule to turn things around but barring a real chaos scenario, Big Ten title game and playoff dreams are not realistic.