Big Al's Daily Angle: MLB Home Run Derby Preview and Odds - 07/10/2023

by Big Al Staff

Monday, Jul 10, 2023
The Monday sports card features the MLB Home Run Derby.

Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby takes place on ESPN at 8 PM ET at the Mariners’ T-Mobile park in Seattle. Eight competitors will take part in a quarterfinals bracket to determine the champion. This tournament offers a stacked field this year featuring a two-time champion, the record holder for most home runs in one Home Run Derby, and a hometown hero with a previous second-place finish in this event. 

The format places each of the eight sluggers in a quarterfinals bracket, with the batters having three minutes to hit in the first two rounds and two minutes in the final round. Everyone will be awarded an additional 30 seconds of bonus time that gets extended to 60 seconds of bonus time if the hitter has clubbed at least two home runs of at least 440 feet in length. Seeds are determined based on the number of home runs accumulated this season. 

The top seed in the field is Luis Robert Jr. of the Chicago White Sox, listed at +500 odds (all odds from DraftKings). He leads the field with 25 home runs this season. His longest home run this season was 450 feet. His career high was a dinger that was blasted for 487 yards. This tournament is his first participation in the Home Run Derby.

The second seed is Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, listed at +300 odds. He looks to join Ken Griffey, Jr. as the second three-time winner in this event. Alonso won the 2019 Home Run Derby and defended his title in 2021 after the 2020 event was canceled during the COVID outbreak. He has 25 home runs this season. His longest home run this season was blasted 448 feet. He has clubbed 37 or more home runs in each of his MLB seasons. 

The third seed is Mookie Betts of the Los Angeles Dodgers, listed at +1000 odds. He has 22 home runs this season, with his long being of 426 feet. The veteran competes in his first Home Run Derby this season. 

The fourth seed is Adolis Garcia of the Texas Rangers, listed at +650 odds. He has 21 home runs this season and 79 homers in the last three years. His longest home run this year was blasted 436 feet. He is a debutante to this tournament. 

The fifth seed is Randy Arozarena of the Tampa Bay Rays, who has +950 odds to win this tournament. He has 16 home runs this season with a long of 436 feet. He is competing in his first Home Run Derby. 

The sixth seed is Vladimir Guerrero of the Tampa Bay Rays, who is listed at +360 odds to win this event. Guerrero has never won a Home Run Derby despite generating fireworks in 2019. Guerrero beat Matt Chapman in the first round that year with 29 home runs and topped that mark in the second round by blasting 40 homers to beat Joc Pederson. But Guerrero lost by one home run to Alonso in the final round to lose that Home Run Derby, yet his 91 homers in that tournament are the most ever in the history of this event. He has 12 home runs this year, with his longest one being 450 feet. 

The seventh seed is Julio Rodriguez of the Seattle Mariners, who has +500 odds to win the derby. The hometown hero finished second in this event last year after crushing 32 home runs in the first round and 31 homers in the second round before losing to Juan Soto in the final round. Rodriguez did defeat Alonso in a head-to-head competition in the semifinals last year. He has 13 home runs this year, with his long being of 454 feet. 

The eighth seed is Adley Rutschman of the Baltimore Orioles who is listed at +1700 odds. The catcher has 11 home runs this season with his longest being 424 feet. The lefty is a Pacific Northwest native having grown up in Portland before attending college at Oregon State. This contest is his first Home Run Derby. 

T-Mobile Park dimensions are balanced. The left-field line is 331 feet, with the left-center field being 378 feet away from home plate. Center field is 401 feet away from the plate. Right-center field is 381 feet away, with the right-field line being 326 feet. 

The winner of the Robert Jr./Rutschman quarterfinal faces the winner of the Garcia/Arozarena quarterfinal. The other semifinal features the Alonso/Rodriguez winner against the Betts/Guerrero survivor.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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