by Wayne Root
Wednesday, May 27, 2026With sportsbooks holding a significant edge before a bet is even placed, bettors must be smart with their betting strategies in order to reduce the house's advantage and give them a chance to be successful. It’s similar to choosing the right seat at the poker table. Playing heads up with the WSOP champion is no different than taking on the house with a four team parlay. One must know the odds.
The same can be said of knowing the odds before you make a bet. Most don’t. Let’s talk about two easy ones. Betting to middle and teasers. Once upon a time, bettors might find lines separated by three to four points, which would make middling a defensible strategy, but such gaps are rare today. It's not worth trying to middle a game, with gaps rarely greater than 1.5 points anymore. The big will destroy you. The vig seems to be greater nowadays, making the penalty greater than before for not hitting a middle. Teasers: without explaining how they work against you; before you bet one, consider its name. Note that NFL teasers would be the only one to play if done correctly.
Bettors should stick to their units, regardless if their unit is $10 or $1,000. Even the Super Bowl is just another game; you don't have to bet two or three units just because it's the Super Bowl. I once gave a customer four games and ended up 3-1. We talked the next day and has was upset. He bet $300 on the winners but bet $1000 on Pittsburgh. I inquired about that and he said he’s from Pittsburgh. He should have bet all four games the same amount. Not only did he have to win the games, he had to choose an additional choice to win the larger bet. There will be times you run cold and run hot, so the challenge will be in the discipline to have faith in your ability to find winners, whether it's through your own research/system or tailing experts, and not to chase your wins with increased bet sizing either.
I’m tracking lookahead lines that are posted more than a week in advance of a game. This allows me to look for spots to bet against line over adjustments by the market when I don't think the size of the move was warranted based on one game of data. With that added information, I can adjust my money management.
However, I don’t just guess; I come armed. I create spread power ratings. These allow me to project spreads early in the week and anticipate lines I should bet if I likes them.
Most professional handicappers agree with me that, in most NFL games, the edge can be found earlier in the week than later. By
Sunday morning, the market is pretty efficient. I’m looking to target key numbers, such as -2.5 or +3.5. In the NFL, 18% of the games land on 3. If you can lay -2.5 rather than -3, that gives you a small edge. Same thing with taking +3.5 instead of +3.
I believe a bettor should set a bankroll, which is the amount of money that bettor has to bet over the course of a year or season. Most gamblers free wheel it in that respect. (Or lack of).
At least 90% of your betting should be single bets. Your standard bets into that bankroll can run from 1% to 2% of the original bankroll at a time, which means if you have $5000 available for betting, you should be making $50 to $100 bets, again with the vast majority of them on single-outcome plays. If you have a very strong feeling on a game, you might think you can go slightly higher on occasion as long as you do it responsibly. I say absolutely not!!
If you must, longer-shot bets can also be lower than 1% if you want to mix it up, but it could make sense to save those for when things are going well and you have profit from which to pull. In any case, these longer shots should be a small slice of the overall number of bets you're making, and the size should never exceed 1% of your bankroll.
If you are wagering in baseball before football start, there’s one strategy I offer. I’m always looking to find a live underdog. You don't want to play too many favorites because you've got to win twice to win one.
The objective is to try to bet the underdog. You can win four out of 10 games and still be up, depending on the price of the underdogs. I believe the availability of relievers is key in betting on baseball. If a team has used its top relievers two days in a row or in three of the last four days, then they might not be available for that next game. I like to bet against the teams that have bullpen issues. Remember that you pay a premium up front betting a strong pitcher. They will rarely have him pitch past the 6-7th inning. Now you’ve paid a premium for a pitcher that’s not going to finish the game. That’s where the bullpen makes or breaks you.
See you for football.
The same can be said of knowing the odds before you make a bet. Most don’t. Let’s talk about two easy ones. Betting to middle and teasers. Once upon a time, bettors might find lines separated by three to four points, which would make middling a defensible strategy, but such gaps are rare today. It's not worth trying to middle a game, with gaps rarely greater than 1.5 points anymore. The big will destroy you. The vig seems to be greater nowadays, making the penalty greater than before for not hitting a middle. Teasers: without explaining how they work against you; before you bet one, consider its name. Note that NFL teasers would be the only one to play if done correctly.
Bettors should stick to their units, regardless if their unit is $10 or $1,000. Even the Super Bowl is just another game; you don't have to bet two or three units just because it's the Super Bowl. I once gave a customer four games and ended up 3-1. We talked the next day and has was upset. He bet $300 on the winners but bet $1000 on Pittsburgh. I inquired about that and he said he’s from Pittsburgh. He should have bet all four games the same amount. Not only did he have to win the games, he had to choose an additional choice to win the larger bet. There will be times you run cold and run hot, so the challenge will be in the discipline to have faith in your ability to find winners, whether it's through your own research/system or tailing experts, and not to chase your wins with increased bet sizing either.
I’m tracking lookahead lines that are posted more than a week in advance of a game. This allows me to look for spots to bet against line over adjustments by the market when I don't think the size of the move was warranted based on one game of data. With that added information, I can adjust my money management.
However, I don’t just guess; I come armed. I create spread power ratings. These allow me to project spreads early in the week and anticipate lines I should bet if I likes them.
Most professional handicappers agree with me that, in most NFL games, the edge can be found earlier in the week than later. By
Sunday morning, the market is pretty efficient. I’m looking to target key numbers, such as -2.5 or +3.5. In the NFL, 18% of the games land on 3. If you can lay -2.5 rather than -3, that gives you a small edge. Same thing with taking +3.5 instead of +3.
I believe a bettor should set a bankroll, which is the amount of money that bettor has to bet over the course of a year or season. Most gamblers free wheel it in that respect. (Or lack of).
At least 90% of your betting should be single bets. Your standard bets into that bankroll can run from 1% to 2% of the original bankroll at a time, which means if you have $5000 available for betting, you should be making $50 to $100 bets, again with the vast majority of them on single-outcome plays. If you have a very strong feeling on a game, you might think you can go slightly higher on occasion as long as you do it responsibly. I say absolutely not!!
If you must, longer-shot bets can also be lower than 1% if you want to mix it up, but it could make sense to save those for when things are going well and you have profit from which to pull. In any case, these longer shots should be a small slice of the overall number of bets you're making, and the size should never exceed 1% of your bankroll.
If you are wagering in baseball before football start, there’s one strategy I offer. I’m always looking to find a live underdog. You don't want to play too many favorites because you've got to win twice to win one.
The objective is to try to bet the underdog. You can win four out of 10 games and still be up, depending on the price of the underdogs. I believe the availability of relievers is key in betting on baseball. If a team has used its top relievers two days in a row or in three of the last four days, then they might not be available for that next game. I like to bet against the teams that have bullpen issues. Remember that you pay a premium up front betting a strong pitcher. They will rarely have him pitch past the 6-7th inning. Now you’ve paid a premium for a pitcher that’s not going to finish the game. That’s where the bullpen makes or breaks you.
See you for football.
