Betting Soccer Totals

With all of the big European leagues on break the final week of January, now is a good time for some soccer discussion. Let’s talk about betting soccer totals.

I delved into xG (expected goals) and xGA (expected goals allowed) to find which clubs you may want to consider betting Over, or Under, down the home stretch of the 2021/22 campaign.

For beginners, xG is the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on the characteristics of that shot and the events leading up to it while xGA is just the opposite, measuring the number of goals a side should have conceded. 

Bet Over

Wolverhampton (Premier League) - In 21 matches played, the Wolves have scored 19 goals and conceded only 16 goals. That total number of goals (35) is - by far - the fewest in the entire Premier League. The next fewest would be Burnley’s 43 and they’ve played three fewer fixtures (matches). Leicester City has played 20 fixtures, one fewer than the Wolves, and there have been a total of 72 goals scored when they’re on the pitch! So the Under has been your friend when playing Wolverhampton thus far. But what about moving forward? xGA says they SHOULD have conceded 26 times already. Don’t be surprised if this side starts conceding more down the stretch.

Athletic Bilbao (La Liga) - On the flip side, La Liga’s Athletic Club (Bilbao) has scored only 21 goals, but their number of expected goals (xG) is 31. Coming up so woefully short of the xG total partially explains why Athletic Club is languishing down in ninth place when they probably should be higher in the table. That, and the fact they’ve been “kings of the draw” in La Liga, sharing the points a league-high 10 times. This side is actually fifth in xPts (expected points) and I anticipate they’ll be challenging for one of the European places by season’s end. If they do move up, expect them to start scoring more goals. 

Wolfsburg (Bundesliga) - Wolfsburg started the season by winning their first four matches. Since then, they’ve won only twice and lost 11 of 16 times. Tied with last place Greuther Furth (who they play this week) for fewest goals in the league (17), Wolfsburg is moving shockingly close to the relegation zone in the German top flight. But they’ve been unlucky when it comes to scoring goals. Their xG total is 27. So like Athletic Club, look for this side to start scoring more. Incredibly, Wolfsburg has been blanked six of its last seven league matches. Sunday is a must win and they’ll probably put some goals up. 

Bet Under

Borussia Dortmund (Bundesliga) - BVB has scored 52 times this Bundesliga season, but that’s a “lucky” total as xG has them only scoring 40. With Erling Haaland’s future very much in question here, regression in the goal scoring department is coming. Haaland, who had to be taken off injured in the 63rd minute against Hoffenheim, has scored 16 goals in just 14 matches.

Lazio (Serie A) - No side in any of Europe’s “Big 4” leagues has a wider gap between actual goals scored and xG than Serie A’s Lazio. I Biancocelesti have scored 46 times this season, third most in Serie A, putting them right with the big boys. But they have also exceeded their xG total (31.60) by almost 15. Therefore, expect fewer goals from them moving forward, thus likely depriving them of a top six finish. Last time out, it was a 0-0 draw with Atalanta (whose matches are almost always high-scoring). 

Levante (La Liga) - The side at the foot of the La Liga table (in last place) is a little different than the other two sides I’m telling you to bet Under. Levante, in my view, is quite unlucky to be facing relegation for next season. The main culprit for this is the number of goals they’ve conceded, 43, which is the most in the league. But that number is well above what xGA says (31.83). If Levante has any hope of not dropping to the Segunda Division, it must shore up the back end. As far as betting them Under, they’ve scored the fifth fewest number of goals in La Liga.  So that seems like a solid bet, moving forward.