by Chuck Sommers
Sunday, Oct 09, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Milan Puksar Stadium, Morgantown, WV
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Check back later
FanDuel: Baylor -4.5
BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later
Season record
Baylor: 3-2 (1-1 Big 12)
West Virginia: 2-3 (0-2 Big 12)
We're about to hit the fun part of college football season where games start getting a little tighter, performances start to become a little more noteworthy, and times at the books are fun for all. You don't believe me? Look at our own Kyle Hunter posting a 25-7-0 run over the last month in college football. That's even with all of the upsets and everything in between. Week 7 is upon us and we're near the point where college football is every day. You want to get back into the swing of things with this? Make sure to follow our Best Bets page and see what our champion handicappers are up to at bigal.com. Who knows? With a little bit of faith in us, you can be like Kyle, or even have as good a run as Sean Murphy at 32-16-1 over the last 30 days. The choices are yours!
Baylor - West Virginia preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Baylor: lost 36-25 vs. No. 9 Oklahoma State
West Virginia: lost 38-20 at Texas
Talk about a rough go in the middle of the Big 12 over the last few weeks. All eyes right now are on how far Oklahoma can slide down, but two normal contenders in the conference are looking for an important win this week when the Baylor Bears head to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in a game that might define both of their seasons with a loss.
Talk about a rough go in the middle of the Big 12 over the last few weeks. All eyes right now are on how far Oklahoma can slide down, but two normal contenders in the conference are looking for an important win this week when the Baylor Bears head to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers in a game that might define both of their seasons with a loss.
One can look at Baylor and say how the mighty have fallen. The Bears are off to a 3-2 start with losses over ranked opponents BYU and Oklahoma State. The only notable win so far is against Iowa State, so this is a big test to see if Baylor is capable of hanging with conference opponents on a daily basis. That 36-25 loss to Oklahoma State on Oct. 1 was more of a revenge statement for OSU after losing to Baylor in the conference title game last year. Not only did Oklahoma State get revenge, but it did so after punching Baylor in the mouth early.
The Cowboys jumped out to a 23-3 lead in the third quarter after returning the opening kickoff 98 yards for a score. Baylor fought back to cut it to eight to end the frame, but just ran out of gas. Quarterback Blake Shapen threw for 345 yards and two touchdowns, but his two interceptions were costly while Baylor couldn’t find that balance in the run-pass game. Running back Richard Reese had 85 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries, but falling so far behind forced Baylor to go away from the ground game. That shouldn’t be an issue this time around.
"I'm proud of our team for the second half we had and the ability to start that third quarter with some emotion and energy, which frankly was missing in the first and second quarter," Baylor coach Dave Aranda said.
Baylor picked up its first conference win of the year the week prior, a 31-24 road win over Iowa State. Not the most impressive win at this point of the year, but at least Baylor showed it can go on the road and get a solid win. They’ll need to do that against a West Virginia team that has also ran into a bit of bad luck against quality opponents. The Mountaineers are coming off a 38-20 loss to Texas on Oct. 1, their third loss against a quality opponent to date. They also lost to No. 19 Kansas a month ago after losing to Pittsburgh, as well.
The WVU offense fell flat in Austin a couple of weeks ago. Quarterback JT Daniels threw for 253 yards and a touchdown, but there was nothing West Virginia could do on the ground. The Mountaineers ran the ball 30 times for just 61 yards despite two touchdowns. You can’t do that on the road, and if that comes back at home, it’s going to be a long day for West Virginia.
"We knew we would get their best," Mountaineers head coach Neal Brown said. "We just didn't make any plays in the first half."
Baylor has covered five of its last seven dating back to last year, but being the home favorite at 2.5 last time out against Oklahoma State was one of the more surprising ATS losses of the season. After cashing the over three straight weeks, the under has come in for West Virginia in back-to-back games. If it becomes a defensive game, even in Morgantown, it’s going to be tough for West Virginia to handle the defensive pressure of Baylor.
Prediction
The home team has covered in four of the last five and with early indications that Baylor is laying close to 5, I see that trend faltering in this one. Baylor by 10
Betting trends
Baylor is 1-6-1 ATS off a bye week in its last eight.
Baylor is 20-4-2 ATS in its last 26 off an ATS loss.
West Virginia is 1-5 ATS in its last six conference games.
The under is 4-1 in West Virignia's last five off a bye.
Statistical leaders
Baylor:
Passing: Blake Shapen -- 1,118 yards, 9 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Richard Reese -- 400 yards, 7 TD
Receiving: Monaray Baldwin -- 261 yards, 3 TD
West Virginia:
Passing: JT Daniels -- 1,209 yards, 8 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: CJ Donaldson -- 389 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Bryce Ford-Wheaton -- 412 yards, 4 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Baylor Bears - West Virginia Mountaineers prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
