by Chuck Sommers
Saturday, Dec 18, 2021Time: 10 p.m. ET
Venue: Matthew Knight Arena, Eugene, OR
Where to watch: ESPN2/ESPN3
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Baylor -7
BetMGM: Baylor -7.5
Caesars: Baylor -7.5
Season record
No. 1 Baylor: 9-0
Oregon: 6-5
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Baylor - Oregon preview and analysis
Recent form
Baylor: won 57-36 vs. No. 9 Villanova on Sunday
Oregon: won 96-71 vs. Portland on Wednesday
There is no national championship slump for the Baylor Bears at this current time.
After some wild upsets thanks to half-court shots, the Bears find themselves back at No. 1 in the AP Top 25 poll as a unanimous selection and will play their 17th game as the nation’s top team on Saturday when they visit the Oregon Ducks in Eugene.
Baylor is one of seven unbeaten teams left in the country, but it’s hard to downplay if they might even be better than last year’s team. Baylor is a deep team with a nice mix of veterans and youth that complement each other well.
More importantly, the Baylor defense might be the most elite unit in the country right now. The Bears give up 54.1 points per game and are coming off giving up just 36 points to the Villanova Wildcats on Sunday in a 57-36 win. One could argue that Villanova did a good job holding Baylor to below 40 percent shooting.
Then you look at Villanova and see the Cats shot just 22.2 percent overall. The 36 points were the fewest Villanova had scored in a game since 1979.
Point guard James Akinjo had a game-high 16 points to go with seven rebounds and five assists. Adam Flagler was the only other Baylor player to hit double figures in scoring with 10 points.
“We’ve got a really good team. Everybody can score 1 through 5, but the separator is getting those stops,” Akinjo said. “We all take pride in our individual matchups. We compete against each other every day.”
This will be the fourth all-time meeting between Baylor and Oregon, with the Bears leading the series 2-1. Oregon won the initial meeting in 2015 in Eugene, 74-67, in November 2015. The last two meetings have come in Waco with Baylor winning both by double digits.
So there’s a bit of a silver lining if you’re an Oregon supporter. But the Ducks have lost two of three -- both losses coming in Pac-12 play against Arizona State and Stanford -- yet are coming off a 25-point win against the Portland Pirates.
N’Faly Dante led the way with 20 points on 9 of 11 shooting while also grabbing nine rebounds, and Will Richardson had a tremendous all-around game with 16 points, six rebounds and six assists. De’Vion Harmon also had 19 points while hitting three 3-pointers.
Much like Baylor, Oregon relies on its depth. Richardson leads the Ducks with 11.8 points per game, one of six players to average at least eight points per game. Someone is going to need to out-perform their own means if Oregon wants the upset. Baylor has won 17 straight non-conference games and its 15-game winning streak is the longest is the nation.
Prediction
The thing that also drives Baylor to be so good is limiting second-chance points. Baylor allows only 5.6 per game while averaging 13.3 of its own. The defense not only forces bad shots, but their positioning in defensive rebounding is also as good as any. If someone on Oregon can’t have a breakthrough game, the Ducks have no chance. Give me Baylor in a runaway. Baylor by 19
Betting trends
Baylor is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight games.
The under is 7-0 in Baylor's last seven after allowing less than 50 points in the previous game.
Oregon is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss.
The over is 4-0 in Oregon's last four home games.
Projected starting lineup
Baylor:
PG: James Akinjo
SG: Adam Flagler
SF: Matthew Mayer
PF: Kendall Brown
C: Flo Thamba
Oregon:
PG: Will Richardson
SG: De’Vion Harmon
SF: Eric Williams Jr.
PF: Quincy Guerrrier
C: N’Faly Dante
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
