Game Time: 9:00 PM  ET, Monday, February 21st, 2022

Venue: Gallagher-Iba Arena, Stillwater, Oklahoma

Where to Watch:  ESPN

 

DraftKings Sportsbook:  Baylor -5; O/U 139

Caesars:  Spread: 

VegasInsider:  Spread: Baylor -6; O/U 139

WynnBet: Spread: 

Baylor: 10-4 in conference, 22-5 overall (Big 12)

OSU: 6-8 in conference, 13-13 overall (Big 12)

The Big 12 is no joke.  They produce NCAA tournament winners… they produce NBA players… They produce excitement.  Baylor is one of those recent Big 12 tournament winning teams.  Baylor sent Davion Mitchel to the NBA and he is a fine player.  His presence on the Sacramento Kings (despite his diminutive size) is what gave Sacramento the idea to trade Tyrese Haliburton. Whether or not that was a good trade for Sacramento remains to be seen… What they do have is a very tough defender in guard Davion Mitchell.  Which brings us back to college… Defense is key to what Baylor does between the lines.  Slow it down, get the stop, and hit back hard and quickly on offense.  It’s a great look.  It’s so hot right now.  Baylor does it about as well as anybody.  Oklahoma State is not a good basketball team at the moment.  They do not have the Griffin family or a comparable family pipelining them players.  They do have a quality young squad… but not Big 12 quality… not this year.  Oklahoma State is playing for pride at this point.

Baylor has won 7 of their last ten games.  The losses were to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, the Kansas Jayhawks, and the Alabama Crimson Tide.  We can’t read too deeply into that… it’s simply two good programs and Texas Tech.  Baylor leading scorer LJ Cryer (another small guard) is not the pro prospect his predecessors were.  He scores but is invisible in the assist game.  At 6’1 he needs to control the point… but doesn’t.  He plays more like a 2 guard.  His counterpart at the guard spot is James Akinjo who is close in points at 13.2 ppg and leads the team in assists with 5.8 apg.  James Akinjo will get pro looks and will be pivotal in the team’s success in the tournament.  Baylor is only 5-4-1 ATS during the 10 game stretch. Some of the spreads are insurmountable when you put the obvious favorite on the court like a 12 point spread against West Virginia… also every now and then a team like the Kansas Jayhawks show up and out and out destroy Baylor.

Oklahoma State has won just 4 of their last ten games.  They beat Kansas State, West Virginia, Oklahoma (who is having the worst season in a long while), and Texas Christian University.  The wins have been slim pickings.  They are only 3-6-1 ATS during that stretch.  Leading scorer Avery Anderson III would not be the leading scorer on any other team in the BIg 12 at only 11.8 ppg.  Leading Rebounder Moussa Cisse is a 6’10 forward with potential… but at 7 ppg, and 5.9 rpg he puts fear into no team.  That is sort of the state of the Cowboys.  They have OK college players but no big performer who can lead them anywhere.  The result is a long waiting game until recruiting season.   The good news on the recruiting trail is they can realistically promise starting spots to any top recruit at any position on the floor.

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Baylor is 22-5 on the season, but 14-11-2 ATS.  They have logged 14 Overs, 12 Unders, and 1 Push.  They are 6-3 in road games. 

OSU is 13-13 on the season, but 9-16-1 ATS.  They have notched 13 Overs and 13 Unders. They are 9-5 in home games.

Baylor is 39th in scoring with 77.5 ppg, 89th in rebounds with 33.9 per game, and 56th in AST/TO ratio with 1.3.  On defense they are ranked 31st while holding opponents to 63 ppg… that is pretty great defense.

Oklahoma State is 210th in scoring with 70 ppg, 93rd in rebounds with 33.8 per game, and 290th in AST/TO ratio with 0.9.  They are okk on defense where they rank 130th while allowing 67.3 ppg from opponents.

Our prediction for Monday, February 21st is…  Baylor 80 - OSU 68

Baylor won’t have to think long and hard about what they are doing to run OSU out of the gym.  The numbers lean so heavily in Baylor’s favor that when the spread comes out it should also lean heavily.  Bet wisely.  Baylor and the OVER.

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Oklahoma State logged 28 Overs and 15 Unders when playing teams with winning record the last 2 seasons.
Baylor is 30-17 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.  
5 of 6 games in this series have gone Over the last 3 seasons.

Baylor: A. Flagler (knee) Quest ** J. Tchamwa Tchatchoua (knee) Out ** L Cryer (foot) Out 

OSU: C. Harris Jr (knee) Out indefinitely

Baylor: Flo Thamba, Kendall Brown, Dale Bonner, James Akinjo, Matthew Mayer

OSU: Avery Anderson III, Bryce Thompson, Isaac Likekele, Tyreek Smith, Moussa Cisse

Baylor

Points: LJ Cryer 13.5

Assists: James Akinjo 5.8

Rebounds: Jonathan Tchamwa 6.8

Steals: James Akinjo 2.0

Blocks: Flo Thamba 1.0

OSU

Points: Avery Anderson 11.8

Assists: Isaac Likekele 3.5

Rebounds: Moussa Cisse 5.9

Steals: Avery Anderson III 1.8

Blocks: Moussa Cisse 1.6

Baylor: Scott Drew

OSU: Chris Holtmann