Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys Picks and Game Preview - 10/02/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Friday, Oct 01, 2021
Game time: 7 p.m. ET, October 2, 2021
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK
Where to watch: ESPN2

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Oklahoma State -4.5
BetMGM: Oklahoma State -4
Caesars: Oklahoma State -4

Season record
No. 21 Baylor: 4-0 (2-0 Big 12)
No. 19 Oklahoma State: 4-0 (1-0 Big 12)

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Baylor - Oklahoma preview and analysis


Recent form
Baylor: won 31-29 vs. Iowa State on Sept. 25
Oklahoma State: won 31-20 vs. Kansas State on Sept. 25

It seems like the Baylor Bears are destined to be good this season. Because even if you're outgained by 197 yards at home, you still find a way to win.

That's the gravitas of Baylor's two-point win over the formerly-ranked Iowa State Cyclones last week, which was without question the biggest win of the season for the Bears.

Now Baylor goes on the road to Stillwater in what might now be considered the biggest game of the season against an Oklahoma State Cowboys team that also has a 4-0 start and a conference win under its belt.

Baylor's two-point win was impressive, but not at the same time. Again, the fact they were outgained by 197 shows how many issues Iowa State has beyond just an inconsistent offense. But it was still a win Baylor needed to thrust itself into the conversation of being a team worth reckoning with in the Big 12.

Quarterback Gerry Bohanon threw only 19 times but completed 14 of them for 159 yards and two touchdowns. Had Brock Purdy not messed up that two-point conversion, things could've been a lot different. The key is the Baylor defense is still finding ways to hold opponents nearly 100 YPG less than their season average. Trying to contain star running back Breece Hall was a pain with 190 yards and two touchdowns.

It also took a bit for Oklahoma State's offense to pick up steam, but the Cowboys got 481 yards of offense including 344 and two touchdowns from quarterback Spencer Sanders. Running back Jaylen Warren added 123 yards of 27 carries, and Tay Martin had nine receptions for a game-high 100 yards and a touchdown.

The best matchup of the week is Baylor's running game against Oklahoma State's run defense. Baylor has averaged 273.5 rush YPG while Oklahoma State's run D has been stingy in giving up only 87 yards. This game is coming down to the quarterbacks and who can make the fewest mistakes. After last week, both look very good from that standpoint.

Prediction


The game that did it for me was that Boise State victory two weeks ago. The blue turf is not an easy surface to play on, and to win that game after what was mostly a dominant second half from the defense showed Oklahoma State is more than capable of being a top team in the Big 12. Baylor as well, but with that home crowd, I think this is going to be a close one, but Oklahoma State gets the win. Oklahoma State by 5

Betting trends


Baylor is 5-2 straight up against Oklahoma State in the last seven and has covered four of the last six meetings.

Players to watch


Baylor: Abram Smith carried the ball a grand total of 10 times last week against Iowa State. Expect more touches for him on the road.

Oklahoma State: Jaylen Warren had 123 yards against Kansas State and has become a force in the Oklahoma State offense in recent weeks.

Statistical leaders


Baylor:
Passing: Gerry Bohanon -- 823 yards, 7 TD, 0 INT
Rushing: Abram Smith -- 413 yards, 5 TD
Receiving: R.J. Sneed -- 317 yards, 1 TD

Oklahoma State:
Passing: Spencer Sanders -- 599 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT
Rushing: Jaylen Warren -- 387 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Tay Martin -- 207 yards, 2 TD

Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Baylor - Oklahoma State prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily NCAA projections and previews.

Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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