by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 30, 2021Big 12 Championship Game
Game time: Noon ET; Dec. 4, 2021
Venue: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX
Where to watch: ABC
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Oklahoma State -5.5
BetMGM: Oklahoma State -5.5
Caesars: Oklahoma State -5.5
Season record
No. 9 Baylor: 10-2 (7-2 Big 12)
No. 5 Oklahoma State: 11-1 (8-1 Big 12)
It was a CFB "November to Remember" as Larry Ness ended the month 17-8, winning his CFB Game of the Year (Mia-Fl on 11/20) plus a "signature" LEGEND Play (LSU on 11/27). In fact, it's been a CFB "season to remember," as Larry enters Saturday 53-34-2, +$14,651 with all plays, including 14-3 with top-rated 10*s. Catch Larry’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Baylor - Oklahoma State preview and analysis
Last week
Baylor: won 27-24 vs. Texas Tech
Oklahoma State: won 37-33 vs. Oklahoma
Imagine the amount of craziness that would’ve ensued if the Baylor Bears lost last week.
The college football gods have been humorous at times but they have come through.
As a result, for the first time in what seems like eons, the Big 12 championship will be played between two teams with really good defenses when the Bears and Oklahoma State Cowboys meet at AT&T Stadium on Saturday.
The Bears were without starting quarterback Gerry Bohanon last week due to a hamstring injury and his status for Saturday remains uncertain. In his absence, freshman quarterback Blake Shapen threw for 254 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Baylor’s defense, which we again should be praising, took its foot off the gas against Texas Tech. Quarterback Donovan Smith threw for 262 yards on 15 completions while also throwing for two touchdowns. All it took was a missed 53-yard field goal when time ran out to give Baylor the win.
"It's just a great experience," backup running back Trestan Ebner said, who caught a 61-yard touchdown pass 1:18 into the game. "I feel like if you win the Big 12 championship it's remembered forever. You have the 2013 and 2014 teams in the field house. And every team after that wants to get on there with them."
Those 2013 and 2014 teams made the Fiesta Bowl and Cotton Bowl during Art Briles’ run and albeit lost. A win for Baylor, pending on where the latest College Football Playoff ranking puts them, could give them an outside chance at making the final four. Especially if Bohanon isn’t ready to go, the magnitude of such a win could carry a ton of weight with that committee.
Or not, if you think like me and believe the committee doesn’t know what it’s doing.
But whether it’s Shapen or Bohanon, they’re in for a tough test against an Oklahoma State defense that has been the reason why they’re in the title game. Last week in the Bedlam Game against the Oklahoma Sooners, the defense delivered one more time even if the numbers don’t reflect it. Oklahoma put up 33 points, but the Cowboys got six sacks on Caleb Williams and forced two turnovers despite OSU’s offense totaling less than 350 yards.
"I told them we couldn't be more proud of them for what they've accomplished," Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. "That's the good news. Next thing is, we need them all back here tomorrow afternoon. We're in a one-week playoff again."
This game will feature two talented running backs in Abram Smith for Baylor and Jaylen Warren for Oklahoma State, both 1,000-yard rushers this season. Neither have faced a defense quite like the opposition. Baylor has given up 120 yards on the ground per game this season, while Oklahoma State is allowing just 91.5 yards on the ground.
Prediction
Ultimately, the winner will be decided on which quarterback can make the most winning plays. If Baylor goes with the freshman, he’s shown to throw a capable ball and lead the team downfield. How he fares against a top-ranked defense is the other question. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders has been a dangerous dual-threat option, but can be beatable if you force him to throw. Expect a low-scoring, but exciting, game with plenty on the line. Oklahoma State by 6
Betting trends
Oklahoma State is 9-0-1 ATS in its last 10; the push coming last week against Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State has covered by double digits in five of its last six covers.
Baylor is 5-2-0 in its last seven ATS; the two losses being TCU (7.5-point favorites) and Texas Tech (11).
Statistical leaders
Baylor:
Passing: Gerry Bohanon -- 2,160 yards, 17 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Abram Smith -- 1,366 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Tyquan Thornton -- 875 yards, 8 TD
Oklahoma State:
Passing: Spencer Sanders -- 2,211 yards, 16 TD, 8 INT
Rushing: Jaylen Warren -- 1,134 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Tay Martin -- 854 yards, 7 TD
Don't miss our champion handicappers' free picks and expert football picks today. And if you enjoyed this Baylor - Oklahoma State prediction, be sure to drop by every day for our daily college football projections and previews.
Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
