by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Jan 21, 2022
Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: Lloyd Noble Center, Norman, OK
Where to watch: BIG12/ESPN+
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Check back later
BetMGM: Check back later
Caesars: Check back later
Season record
No. 5 Baylor: 16-2 (4-2 Big 12)
Oklahoma: 12-6 (2-4 Big 12)
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Baylor - Oklahoma preview, analysis and prediction
As tempting as this one might be, I will not succumb to the pressure of going against the Baylor Bears. And the only reason I fight against it is because the Oklahoma Sooners failed to capitalize on such a big win that they don’t seem intimidating enough to take down No. 5 Baylor.
Safe to say it was not a fun week for supporters/believers of Baylor after losing to Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, both at home, in a span of four days. The Bears answered with a 77-68 win at West Virginia on Tuesday.
But perhaps the biggest reason to feel comfortable about Baylor’s win was the fact that it happened without point guard James Akinjo, who was out with a bruised tailbone. LJ Cryer filled in to score 25 points, and Matthew Mayer added 20 points. Both combined to make 10 of the team’s 12 3-pointers.
"This league is one of those leagues you don't want to be on a losing streak, because nobody feels sorry for you," Baylor coach Scott Drew said. "You can pick any sport. You lose, you make errors, you lose a little confidence. And you want to get back to winning as quick as you can.”
That win put Baylor at 2-5 against the spread in its last seven, but you have to take into consideration some of these games; 39-point favorites against Northwestern State, 7.5-points against a good Iowa State team, and 12 against Oklahoma on Jan. 4, an 84-74 win.
Baylor may not be the darlings on the books, but the Bears will always find ways to win. And nothing screams a need to win more than Baylor getting consecutive games against teams that they should beat. And I’d like to think the line will be reasonable with the Bears coming off those losses and being on the road, that it makes sense to take a shot like that.
Oklahoma is 4-6 against the spread in its last 10 and is coming off a 3-point loss at home to the Kansas Jayhawks where they were getting 3.5. I expect Baylor to provide a line of 7-8 points and for Baylor to make an easy cover should it be the case. Baylor by 12
Betting trends
Baylor is 11-3 ATS the past three seasons on the road when the total is 130 to 139.5.
Baylor is 41-29 ATS as a favorite over the past three seasons.
Oklahoma is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 as a home dog or pick.
Oklahoma is 13-9 ATS in January games the past three seasons.
Projected starting lineup
Baylor:
PG: James Akinjo
SG: Adam Flagler
SF: Matthew Mayer
PF: Kendall Brown
C: Flo Thamba
SF: Matthew Mayer
PF: Kendall Brown
C: Flo Thamba
Oklahoma:
PG: Elijah Harkless
SG: Umoja Gibson
SF: Jordan Goldwire
PF: Jalen Hill
C: Tanner Groves
SF: Jordan Goldwire
PF: Jalen Hill
C: Tanner Groves
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
