Baylor Bears vs Mississippi State Bulldogs Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 03/21/2025

Game Time: 12:15 pm ET, Friday, March 21, 2025

Venue:  Lenovo Center, Raleigh, NC

Where to Watch:  CBS

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Baylor +1.5, MS State -1.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Baylor +1.5, MS State -1.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Baylor +1.5, MS State -1.5; Over/Under:  144.5 points

Baylor Bears:  19-14 (10-10) (7th place, Big 12)

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  21-12 (8-10) (10th place, SEC)

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Baylor Bears:  3-2  last 5

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  2-3  last 5

Baylor is entering this game with a 19-14 record overall, a 10-10 record in conference games, and they are 3-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in their last game. Norchad Omier led the team in points in that game with 29 while V. J. Edgecombe was next on the team with 11. V. J. Edgecombe led the team in assists with 5 in that game while Norchad Omier led the team in rebounds with 15. They were 45% from the field, 25% from 3-point range, and 84.2% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 76.5 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 69.2 PPG against them. Baylor has an ATS record of 12-18-2 this season and their O/U record is 17-15.

Mississippi State is entering this game with a 21-12 record overall, an 8-10 conference record, and they are 5-2 in their neutral site games this season where they will be in this game. They are coming off a loss against the Missouri Tigers in their last game. Josh Hubbard led the team in points in that game with 24 while KeShawn Murphy was next on the team with 18. Riley Kugel led the team in assists with 4 in that game while KeShawn Murphy led the team in rebounds with 8. They were 36.4% from the field, 20% from 3-point range, and 70.4% from the free throw line with their shooting in that game. Their offense is averaging 79.8 PPG and their defense is allowing their opponents to average 74.2 PPG against them. Mississippi State has an ATS record of 15-18 this season and their O/U record is 19-13-1.

The current betting odds have Mississippi State listed as a 1.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Mississippi State has looked good in their games this season with their 21-12 record overall, but their 8-10 conference record had them in the bottom half of the SEC. They have looked good in their neutral site games though with their 5-2 record in those. Meanwhile, Baylor hasn't looked great in their games this season with their 19-14 record overall and their 10-10 conference record which had them right in the middle of the Big 12. They are 3-2 in their neutral site games this season too, but they did enough to get to this tournament. They are coming off a loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament and they haven't looked bad lately as they are 3-2 in their last 5 games, but the Big 12 wasn't as strong this season and they really struggled to stay afloat. Mississippi State is coming off a loss to Missouri in their last one and they haven't looked as good lately as they are 2-3 in their last 5 games, but they also played in a much tougher conference this season. The SEC was the best conference in the nation this year so Mississippi State is the more battle tested team coming into this tournament. Baylor was also projected to be a lot better at the beginning of the season than they have turned out to be and they just haven't been able to put it all together this season. Mississippi State hasn't been at their best lately, but they are still riding the momentum from a great season and they can use that to take advantage of Baylor here in what has been a disappointing year for them. The best way to place a bet here is on Mississippi State to cover the spread in this game. 

Baylor Mississippi State Prediction:  Our NCAAB Pick for Friday, March 21, 2025 (12:15 pm ET start time) is Mississippi State 88 Baylor 77.

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Baylor Bears: 19-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses. 9-5 ATS at a neutral site off a loss against a conference rival. 8-4 UNDER after successfully covering the spread in 3 or more consecutive games. 17-9 1H UNDER as an underdog. 11-5 1H UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 

Mississippi State Bulldogs: 2-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive overs. 26-41 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 turnovers/game or less. 4-9 1H ATS when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 60%). 16-8 UNDER in all neutral court games. 8-3 UNDER in a neutral court game where the total is 140 to 149.5. 

Baylor Bears:  L. Love (G) Questionable - Ankle. Y. Ndjonga (F) Questionable - Knee.

Mississippi State Bulldogs:  K. Clary (G) Out - Leg.

"First and foremost, hearing your name called is always a blessing. We've been the first four out before, and that's no fun—No matter who you draw, you know it's going to be a tough game." - Scott Drew on his team making the NCAA Tournament. 

“We’re excited. It never gets old. Obviously, the bracketologists gave us a pretty good chance that our name was going to be heard today. It is certainly a comforting feeling. The first year, I remember, we were not so sure and we didn’t do a public reveal. This year was a lot more fun to know and get excited about the possibilities.” - Chris Jans on his team playing Baylor in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. 

V. Edgecombe 

J. Nunn 

J. Ojianwuna 

N. Omier 

J. Roach

C. Harris 

J. Hubbard 

C. Matthews 

R. Melendez 

M. Nwoko

PPG: N. Omier (15.9)

APG: R. Wright (4.3)

Reb/G: N. Omier (10.9)

PPG: J. Hubbard (18.5)

APG: C. Matthews (3.6)

Reb/G: K. Murphy (7.4)

Coaches:

Baylor Bears: Scott Drew (22nd season)

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Chris Jans (3rd season)