Baylor Bears vs Kansas State Wildcats Prediction, Picks and Game Preview - 11/11/2023

Game Time: 3:00 pm ET, Saturday, November 11, 2023

Venue:  Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS

Where to Watch:  ESPN+

DraftKings:  Point Spread:  Baylor +20.5, KSU -20.5; Over/Under:  56 points

Bet365:  Point Spread:  Baylor +20.5, KSU -20.5; Over/Under:  55.5 points

BetMGM:  Point Spread:  Baylor +20.5, KSU -20.5; Over/Under:  56 points

Baylor Bears:  3-6 (2-4) (12th place, Big 12)

Kansas State Wildcats:  6-3 (4-2) (5th place, Big 12)

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Baylor Bears:  lost their last game at home against the Houston Cougars in overtime 25-24.

Kansas State Wildcats:  lost their last game on the road against the Texas Longhorns in overtime 33-30.

Baylor is entering this game with a 3-6 record overall and they have a 2-4 record in their conference games too. They are 1-6 in their home games, 2-0 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be on the road for this game. They lost their last game against Houston 25-24 in OT. Blake Shapen was the starting QB and he completed 29/37 passes for 263 passing yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Dominic Richardson led the team in rushing yards with 51. Drake Dabney led the receivers with 76 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Devyn Bobby led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 0 assisted tackles while Byron Vaughns led the defense in sacks with 1. Caden Jenkins and Chateau Reed each came away with 1 interception for them in that game.

 

 

 

Kansas State is entering this game with a 6-3 record overall and they have a 4-2 record in their conference games too. They are 5-0 in their home games, 1-3 in their road games, and they are also 0-0 in their neutral site games this season, but they will be at home for this game. They lost their last game against Texas 33-30 in OT. Will Howard was the starting QB and he completed 26/42 passes for 327 passing yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Treshaun Ward led the team in rushing yards with 30. Jayce Brown led the receivers with 77 receiving yards on 4 receptions and 1 TD. Will Lee III led the defense in that game with 7 solo tackles and 2 assisted tackles while no one on the defense recorded a sack in that one. Jacob Parrish came away with the only 2 interceptions for them in that game.

The current betting odds have Kansas State listed as a 20.5 point favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. Kansas State is 6-3 overall this season and they have looked really good in their games lately. They are 4-2 in their conference games this season but they just lost to Texas in OT in a close game last week so they will be looking to bounce back with a win now that they are back at home. Kansas State still has a chance to make the Big 12 Championship but they pretty much need to run the table, starting with a win in this game. Meanwhile, Baylor hasn't looked good at all this season with their 3-6 record overall and they have struggled a lot in conference play with their 2-4 record against Big 12 opponents this year. They just lost a game at home in OT last week and lost that game by 1 point against Houston who is new to the Big 12 conference and has been struggling a lot this year. This Baylor program isn't in a good spot right now while Kansas State is looking to defend their Big 12 Title from last season so look for a big game at home from K-State here to get the bad taste out of their mouth from their close loss to Texas last week. The best way to place a bet here is on Kansas State to cover the spread in this game. 

Baylor Kansas State Prediction:  Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, November 11, 2023 (3:00 pm ET start time) is KSU 45 Baylor 17.

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Baylor Bears: 10-17 ATS as a road underdog of 14.5 to 21 points. 0-4 ATS in a road game where the total is between 52.5 and 56. 9-4 OVER in road games. 7-3 OVER off a loss against a conference rival.

Kansas State Wildcats: 22-11 ATS in all games. 17-5 ATS as a favorite. 14-5 ATS in home games. 15-7 ATS against conference opponents. 28-14 OVER after gaining 100 or less rushing yards last game. 9-2 OVER after playing their last game on the road. 

Baylor Bears:  K. Jackson Jr. (WR) Ques Sat - Head. M. Smith Jr. (LB) out for season - Knee. H. Presley (WR) Late Dec - Lower Body.

Kansas State Wildcats:  A. Newsom (LB) out for season - Undisclosed. D. Green (LB) out for season - Pectoral.

“It’s a sad and frustrated and really kind of broken locker room. All of that is just very tough. But I’m appreciative and honored by their fight. But I’m disappointed by our lack of execution, especially early in the game.” - Dave Aranda after his team’s loss against Houston in their last game. 

“It’s one of those things where if I had it all over again, we would have done it again. I don’t know if (offensive coordinator Collin Klein) would have called something different. I’m just telling you. We would have done that again. We were at the 4-yard line, we have a lot of really good (plays) and we needed to end that game when we had the chance.” - Chris Klieman after his team’s loss against Texas in their last game. 

WR Jackson Jr., Ketron 

WR Cameron, Josh 

WR Baldwin, Monaray 

TE Dabney, Drake 

QB Shapen, Blake 

RB Reese, Richard  

WR Jackson, Jadon  

WR Brown, Jayce 

WR Brooks, Phillip 

TE Sinnott, Ben

TE Swanson, Will 

QB Howard, Will 

RB Giddens, DJ 

Passing: B. Shapen (1738)

Rushing: D. Richardson (339)

Receiving: M. Baldwin (586)

Touchdowns: D. Pendergrass (5)

Passing: W. Howard (1955)

Rushing: D. Giddens (744)

Receiving: P. Brooks (513)

Touchdowns: D. Giddens (8)

Coaches:

Baylor Bears: Dave Aranda (4th season)

Kansas State Wildcats: Chris Klieman (5th season)