by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 18, 2021
Game time: 5:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Where to watch: FS1
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Kansas State -1
BetMGM: Kansas State -1
Caesars: Kansas State -1
Season record
No. 11 Baylor: 8-2
Kansas State: 7-3
Baylor - Kansas State preview and analysis
Last week
Baylor: won 27-14 vs. Oklahoma
Kansas State: won 34-17 vs. West Virginia
The Baylor Bears did the Lord’s work last week.
It took all the way until the final few games of the regular season for the Oklahoma Sooners to be dispatched of any College Football Playoff thought and we have Baylor to thank for the patronage that is no tomfoolery with the Sooners.
As for the remainder of the season, there’s still plenty for Baylor to fight for. That includes a spot in the Big 12 Conference Championship game, and Baylor will try to take another step toward that when it travels to face the Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday.
We knew it was only going to be a matter of time before Oklahoma finally faltered in the pecking order. It got so bad last week that the Sooners faithful in attendance in Waco were actually cheering for Spencer Rattler to come into the game over Caleb Williams.
It in fact was the Baylor defense that led to this upset victory, one that put the Bears up to No. 13 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Baylor held Oklahoma to its lowest-scoring output (14) and yardage (260) in the Lincoln Riley era. Baylor was also the first Big 12 team to keep the Sooners out of the end zone through the air since November 2014 (65 games).
That stingy Baylor defense has been a constant all season long. The Bears, which give up 19.9 points per game, allow only 353.7 total yards per game and just a modest 232 through the air.
The other constant for Baylor has been the play of quarterback Gerry Bohanon, both with his arm and legs. Bohanon ran for a career-high 107 yards and two touchdowns against Baylor. The one-two punch with running back Abram Smith (148 yards) is what drove Baylor to its first win over a top-5 team since beating Oklahoma State in 2015.
The Bears have been the under-the-radar team that could be a force against any that come their way. But Kansas State may have somewhat of equal footing in terms of talent and statistical output when you compare to Baylor.
The Wildcats have won four straight coming into this weekend’s showdown, having won 34-17 against the West Virginia Mountaineers. The past three weeks, albeit the opponents, has seen K-State allow just 13 points per game; the 17 allowed against West Virginia were the most Kansas State has allowed in a month.
Kansas State didn’t need offense to drive the scoreboard in its direction. Skylar Thompson threw for 138 yards and a touchdown, while running back Deuce Vaughn ran for a game-high 121 yards and a touchdown. K-State’s defense forced thee turnovers despite having West Virginia outgain them by 46 yards.
Prediction
Senior Day tends to be an important game when it comes to the opponent being a ranked club. While Kansas State should put up a valiant effort, Baylor is clicking at the right time. That loss to TCU was a major blip that can’t be avoided, but I trust the dynamic duo of Bohanon and Smith to carry Baylor to a hard-fought victory. Baylor by 10
Betting trends
Baylor is 20-12 ATS over the last three seasons.
Baylor is 7-1 ATS in its last eight after winning two of three.
Kansas State is 4-2 ATS at home this season.
Statistical leaders
Baylor:
Passing: Gerry Bohanon -- 2,084 yards, 16 TD, 6 INT
Rushing: Abram Smith -- 1,203 yards, 11 TD
Receiving: Tyquan Thornton -- 763 yards, 8 TD
Kansas State:
Passing: Skylar Thompson -- 1,696 yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Deuce Vaughn -- 987 yards, 13 TD
Receiving: Phillip Brooks -- 432 yards, 2 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
