Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Previews and Picks 09/25/2022

by James Q

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Previews and Picks 09/25/2022

 
Game Time:  10:05 PM ET, Sunday, September 25th, 2022
Venue:  Gillette Stadium, Boston, Massachusetts
Where to Watch:  FOX
 

Opening NFL Odds at USA Sportsbooks

FanDuel: point spread: Ravens -2.5; 43.5 O/U
DraftKings: Ravens -2.5; 43.5 O/U
BetMGM: Ravens -3; 43.5 O/U
Caesars: 
 

Season Record

Ravens: 1-1, tied for 1st place AFC North
Patriots: 1-1, tied for last place AFC EAST

An American Football Conference battle of sneaky good teams.  The Baltimore Ravens are 1-1 and find themselves a game better than the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Ravens have a quarterback who is playing on pure “love of the game”.... Lamar Jackson did not get the contract offer he and his mother were looking for… It simply did not come in.  He didn’t hold out… He didn’t cry over it publicly… He will simply play at a great level until he gets the offer he likes.  For contrast the Cleveland Browns offered a sexual predator 100 million more dollars than the Ravens offered this former MVP.  To get it right you have to remember that Lamar leads the team in passing AND rushing yards from the quarterback spot.  He stands tall in the pocket and he scrambles like the best running back in the league.  In Boston we are in the midst of tearing down a legendary coach.  Coach Bill Belichick is the best to have ever done it.  He has all the rings, all the money, all the winning.  No one else comes close form the coaching position.  But when Bill’s legendary quarterback (also a GOAT) left the team and the losing started, people were saying Bill is nothing without him.  All these talking heads forget to add that Tom Brady was a game manager at best during the first 3 Championships that were clearly won by Belichick and some luck.  So we have two monumentally big names in the game of football both being monumentally disrespected.  The winner will get a brief reprieve while the loser will get piled on.

The Baltimore Ravens lost Game 2 to the surging Miami Dolphins 42-38.  It was a shootout.  It was raucous.  QB Lamar Jackson did EVERYTHING… and the Ravens defense let the win get away. Lamar Jackson set the all-time record for quarterback rushing for 100+ yards… It was his 11th time doing that. And still the defense gave up 3 scores to Tua Tagovailoa in a fourth quarter comeback.  Next season Lamar Jackson will be franchised tagged and the arbitrator will set his salary at 40 million for the year…. The next season Lamar will be tagged again at 47 million for the season.  If he makes it through all of that healthy he will end up somewhere else with a big guaranteed contract.  Until then he will have to put up with a team that fails to build around him or value his passing AND rushing.  The good thing for both Lamar and the Ravens is the Patriots defense simply can not stop him.

The New England Patriots made a devastating decision two seasons back… they drafted Mac Jones instead of trading back.  Had they traded back they would have loaded up on players while still being in play to trade for Jimmy G this last offseason…. Whom they could have easily gotten back for a few picks as recently as a few weeks ago.  Since they took undersized and underskilled QB Mac Jones they have a low ceiling.  They are 30th in the league in points and 22nd in the league in total yards.  Still they have a win which oddly puts them even with the Ravens… sadly they are not.  The defense in New England is solid.  It always has been just ask 4 of Tom Brady’s rings… but the offense is empty.

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Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots Preview and Analysis

RECENT FORM
Ravens: 1-1, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U, 1-0 in away games.
Patriots: 1-1, 0-1-1 ATS, 0-2 O/U, 0-0 in home games.
 

Offensive Analysis

The Ravens came out of Week 2 5th in total points with 31 per game, 12th in total yards with 373.5 per game, 9th in passing yards with 264.5 per game, and 18th in rushing yards with 109 per game,.. Lamar has most of those rushing yards and all of those passing yards.

The Patriots came out of Week 2 30th in points with 12 per game, 22nd in yards per game with 323.5 per game, 17th in passing yards with 222.5 per game, and 19th in rushing yards with 101 per game… In other words they are all over the map.  The Patriots are a bad offense waiting for their numbers to land at the bottom of the league.

Defensive Analysis

The Ravens are 32nd in defending total yards with 463.5 allowed per game, 32nd in defending passing yards with 379 per game, 8th in defending rushing yards with 84.5 per game, and 23rd in defending points with 25.5 per game.

The Patriots are 4th in defending yards with 275 per game, 9th defending passing yards with 197 per game, 5th in defending rushing yards with 78 per game, and 8th in defending points scored with 17 per game.

Baltimore Ravens vs New England PatriotsPrediction’

Our prediction for Sunday, September 25th is… Ravens 30 - Patriots 14

This is a classic matchup of good offense (ravens) versus good defense (patriots)... one will break.  The bet is obviously for the Ravens as they will run roughshod over this good defense for multiple scores.  On the reverse the Patriots are simply not capable of running roughshod against anyone.

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NFL Betting Trends

The Ravens are 7-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.
The Patriots are 5-7 ATS where the line is +3 to -3 the last 3 seasons.
The Patriots are 94-57 ATS as an underdog since 1992.
 

Key Injuries

The Ravens have QB Lamar Jackson listed as probable… he will play.  DT T Jones listed as Prob he will play… RB J Dobbins listed as Prob he will play.  8 other guys are listed as Quest… which usually means they play.  So, we have no clear picture of the Ravens health.

The Patriots have 6 guys listed as Quest (but will play)... DB A Phillips, DL D Mitchell, LB R McMillan, DT D Godchaux, DB C Davis, WR J Meyers, 

Starting Lineups

Ravens: QB Lamar Jackson, RB Kenyan Drake, FB Patrick Ricard, WR Devin Duvernay, TE Josh Oliver, TE Mark Andrews, LT Patrick Mekari, LG Ben Powers, C Tyler Lindebaum, RG Kevin Zeitler, RT Morgan Moses

Patriots: QB Mac Jones, RB Damien Harris, WR Devonte Parker, WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Lil’Jordan Humphrey, TE Hunter Henry, LT Trent Brown, LG Cole Strange, C David Andrews, RG Mike Onwenu, RT Isaiah Wynn


 

Weather Forecast

Partly Cloudy, humidity 62%, wind 11 mph… 69 degrees.  Does Boston get sticky with a chance of rain at the end of summer?… YES.


James Q

About the Author:

James Q. has been involved with sports and gambling his entire life. A former division 1 scholarship basketball player, James understands sports (and especially basketball) inside-and-out. Following his basketball playing days, James parlayed his gambling skills into a semi-pro poker career. James resides in Los Angeles, and especially loves the Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Rams, and Los Angeles Dodgers. And when he isn't betting on sports (and writing about it), James can be found performing stand-up comedy on the Sunset Strip.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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