Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds -- 11/11/2021

by Chuck Sommers

Game time: 8:20 p.m. ET; November 11, 2021
Venue: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
Where to watch: NFL Network

Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks


DraftKings: Ravens -7.5; O/U 46.5
BetMGM: Ravens -7.5; O/U 46.5
Caesars: Ravens -7.5; O/U 46.5

Season record
Ravens: 6-2 (1st place, AFC North)
Dolphins: 2-7 (Last place, AFC East)

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Ravens - Dolphins preview and analysis


Last week
Ravens: won 34-31 (OT) vs. Vikings
Dolphins: won 17-9 vs. Texans

Two weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens were plummeting while the Cincinnati Bengals were thriving.

Now it’s flip-flopped and the Ravens are back atop the AFC North. Things are weird in that division as a whole.

Nevertheless, the Ravens will try to win for the seventh time in eight games on Thursday Night Football when they visit the Miami Dolphins.

The Ravens didn’t look like they recovered from that beatdown at the hands of the Bengals three weeks ago. Coming off their bye week, it didn’t appear the Ravens got it together and trailed 17-3 to the Minnesota Vikings in the first half.

Baltimore rallied to eventually send it to overtime before Justin Tucker kicked the game-winning 36-yard field goal with 16 seconds left in OT to give the Ravens an important victory.

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson had yet another all-around dominant game on offense, accumulating for 366 total yards and three touchdowns. He threw two interceptions, but the 120 rushing yards were a season-high and he tied Michael Vick with his 10th game of 100 rushing yards, tied for the most all-time by a quarterback.

Baltimore got a total effort from its backfield with Devonta Freeman (79 rushing yards, 1 TD catch) and Le’Veon bell (48 yards, 1 TD), something that hasn’t happened in a long while due to the injuries the Ravens have gone through.

"I'd rather not be playing from behind," Jackson said. "But our team, we're fighters. We believe in each other. We've got faith."

The Ravens had to rally to not lose outright (7-point favorites against the Vikings) but they have to feel good going into this week’s matchup with the Dolphins and their plentiful injuries. Starting QB Tua Tagovailoa did not play in Sunday’s win over the Houston Texans due to a fractured middle finger on his throwing hand.

Veteran Jacoby Brissett was called in for relief yet again, throwing for 244 yards and a touchdown. Brissett, the former Indianapolis Colts quarterback, has filled in well for Tagovailoa, throwing for at least two touchdowns in two of his past three starts.

"It's good to get a win," Dolphins coach Brian Flores said. "Always good to get a win."

The Dolphins once again failed to get anything consistent going on the ground. Myles Gaskin had 34 yards and a touchdown, but they came on 20 carries. Jaylen Waddle had a team-high eight receptions for 83 yards, and Mike Gesicki continued his hot stretch with 54 yards on four receptions, giving him at least 50 yards in three of his past four games.

Given how optimistic Flores was that Tagovailoa would play this weekend, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play against Baltimore.

Prediction


While Miami should feel good about getting its quarterback back, defense is the biggest problem for the Dolphins. They’ve allowed almost 410 yards per game and 111 on the ground. Jackson could beat Miami with his arm if he wanted to, but given how well he’s been out of the pocket, Miami’s defense (allowing 27 points per game this season) could be in for a long night in Miami Gardens. Ravens by 14

Betting trends


The Ravens are 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season.

As a road favorite ATS, the Ravens are 0-2.

The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past three seasons as a home dog between 7.5 and 14 points.

The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in games after they gain 50 rushing yards or less the week prior.

The Dolphins are 5-10 straight up as a home dog over the past three seasons on the moneyline.

Players to watch


Ravens: Leading receiver Marquise Brown had his fifth career game of at least 100 receiving yards last week with 116 on nine receptions. He has 80 yards in four of his last five games.

Dolphins: Wide receiver Mack Hollins, who caught the lone touchdown against the Texans, has a touchdown reception in two of the last three games.

Statistical leaders


Ravens:
Passing: Lamar Jackson -- 2,209 yards, 13 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Lamar Jackson -- 600 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Marquise Brown -- 682 yards, 6 TD
Defense: Odafe Oweh -- 3 sacks

Dolphins:
Passing: Tua Tagovailoa -- 1,040 yards, 7 TD, 5 INT
Rushing: Myles Gaskin -- 313 yards, 1 TD
Receiving: Jaylen Waddle -- 496 yards, 3 TD
Defense: Emmanuel Ogbah -- 5 sacks

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Chuck Sommers

About the Author:

Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.

All photographic images used for editorial content have been licensed from the Associated Press.

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