by Chuck Sommers
Friday, Dec 16, 2022
Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland, OH
Where to watch: NFL Network
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Browns -2.5; Browns -150, Ravens +130; O/U 38.5
FanDuel: Browns -2.5; Browns -156, Ravens +132; O/U 38.5
BetMGM: Browns -2.5; Browns -145, Ravens +120; O/U 38.5
Caesars: Browns -3; Browns -154, Ravens +130; O/U 39
Season record
Ravens: 9-4 (1st place, AFC North)
Browns: 5-8 (3rd place, AFC North)
We’re coming down the home stretch of the NFL season and there’s still a lot left to get excited for on your TV screen (or your streaming device if you’re like me and watch Sunday Ticket on a Fire Stick. That works, too). Nevertheless, the final few weeks of the regular season are going to be hectic for everyone on the field, but just as much as everyone off it. You’re probably going to need to figure out which plays are the best ones in terms of teams sitting the star players for the playoff advantage, or which teams are going all in for the final playoff push. If you need that extra push, trust that our champion handicappers can get the job done for you. Matt Fargo has a 17-9-0 run over the last 30 days in the NFL. Brian Bitler has continued to stay consistent, despite a wild, unpredictable season, by going 16-9-0. Do you want a piece of this action? Make sure to stay locked to bigal.com and follow our champion handicappers so you can be a champion, too!
Ravens - Browns preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Ravens: won 16-14 at Steelers
Browns: lost 23-10 at Bengals
Ravens analysis
The Baltimore Ravens continue to find a way to win, but you have to wonder when that luck is going to run out. Sure, defense prevails at this time of year and the Ravens’ defense has picked up its play at the right time with Lamar Jackson on the sideline. But two one-score wins over Pittsburgh and Denver have opened the door to possibility.
The Ravens covered last week in the 16-14 win at Pittsburgh to snap a three-game ATS losing streak. Go back even further, and the Ravens had failed to cover in six of eight before covering as 1.5-point dogs against the Steelers.
One thing you can know for sure when it comes to the Ravens: They’re not going to score a lot of points with Tyler Huntley at quarterback, and the under is going to cash hard. Even with Jackson, the under covered in four of the last five and two of them by at least 20 points.
The Ravens are in a fight with the Cincinnati Bengals for the AFC North and the division is likely going to come down to the Jan. 8 finale. That finale is in Cincinnati this time and you’d be hard-pressed to think that one will come in at 36 total points. It might if Jackson remains out, but don’t expect that to be the case. Of whom the Ravens have faced so far without Jackson, this will be the toughest challenge yet.
Browns analysis
The transition to Deshaun Watson hasn’t been the smoothest, as expected for the Cleveland Browns, but with two wins in their last three both straight-up and ATS, Cleveland is slowly finding its way. This Saturday matchup against the Ravens, while at home, is going to be a toss-up.
The Browns are coming into this one favored at 2.5 in most books. They haven’t been favored much this season, the latest being that 7.5 they were laying Dec. 4 in Houston in Watson’s season debut. But we saw what happened to the Steelers when laying points: The defense had a strong day.
Watson threw for 276 yards and his first touchdown in the 23-10 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. He looked good in stints. The only thing he couldn’t deliver was more points on the board. In time, those should come and the Browns should start to get a feel offensively for what they want to do.
This seems like a prime week for the defense if they can get after a quarterback that completed just 8 of 12 passes last week. Myles Garrett had two sacks in a game for the third time this season, and the last time the Browns hosted the Ravens, Jadeveon Clowney had a sack and a half.
Prediction
The Ravens are 6-1-1 ATS in the last eight meetings in Cleveland, but the bulk if not all of those came with Jackson at quarterback. Same with their 5-1 ATS mark in the last six overall. Cleveland should do much better in Watson’s home debut and the Browns should be able to overwhelm Huntley. Browns by 13
Betting trends
Ravens are 35-17 ATS as a road underdog of 3 points or less since 1992.
Ravens are 60-40 ATS after gaining 150 passing yards or less in the last game since 1992.
Browns are 1-8 ATS off a road loss the last 2 seasons.
The over is 8-1 when the Browns revenge a road loss over the last 3 seasons.
Statistical leaders
Ravens:
Passing: Lamar Jackson – 2,242 yards, 17 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Lamar Jackson – 764 yards, 3 TD
Receiving: Mark Andrews – 671 yards, 5 TD
Defense: Justin Houston – 9 sacks
Browns:
Passing: Deshaun Watson – 407 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Rushing: Nick Chubb – 1,153 yards, 12 TD
Receiving: Amari Cooper – 874 yards, 7 TD
Defense: Myles Garrett – 12 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
