Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview and Odds - 07/04/2024

Game Time: 4:10 pm ET, Thursday, July 4, 2024

Venue:  T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA 

Where to Watch:  MASN2

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles -142, Mariners +120; Over/Under:  7 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles -142, Mariners +120; Over/Under:  7 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles -142, Mariners +120; Over/Under:  7 runs

Baltimore Orioles:  54-31 (1st place, AL East)

Seattle Mariners:  47-40 (1st place, AL West)

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Baltimore Orioles:  5-5 last 10

Seattle Mariners:  3-7 last 10

The Orioles are entering this series off a loss and won their 4-game series against the Texas Rangers 3-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 54-31 record overall and have a road record of 25-14. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Mariners on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Orioles won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 1st in the MLB with a .776 OPS. Dean Kremer is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Corbin Burnes is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 9-3 with a 2.28 ERA this season. His team won 7 of their last 8 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 ER, 1 HR, and 0 BB with 5 Ks on 9 hits through 7 IP against the Texas Rangers.

The Mariners are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Minnesota Twins 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 47-40 record overall and have a home record of 28-15. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Orioles on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Mariners lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 27th in the MLB with a .659 OPS. Logan Gilbert is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Bryce Miller is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 2 earned runs, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 6 strikeouts on 5 hits through 5 innings played against the Minnesota Twins.

The current betting odds have the Orioles listed as a favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Orioles have looked great in their games this season with their 54-31 record overall which leads the AL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They just passed the Yankees for 1st place in the division and will be looking to keep it, and they have also looked great in their road games with their 25-14 road record. Meanwhile, the Mariners have also looked good in their games this season with their 47-40 record overall which has them leading the AL West, and they have also looked good in their home games with their 28-15 home record. They haven't looked as good in their games lately though, going 3-7 in their last 10, while the Orioles are 5-5 and starting to get hot again. The Orioles also have one of their best starters on the mound with Burnes who is 9-3 with a 2.23 ERA this season. He only gave up 1 earned run in his last start which has been a common theme for him this year, and the team has had a ton of success with him lately, winning 7 of their last 8 games. The Mariners are going with Miller in this game who is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA, but he has been starting to fall apart in his starts lately. He only gave up 2 earned runs in his last one, but he has been giving up a lot more runs over the last month, and the team has also lost their last 2 games with him starting. These teams are headed in opposite directions at the moment and the Orioles have the much better pitching matchup. The best way to place a bet here is on the Orioles to win this game. 

Orioles Mariners Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, July 4, 2024 (4:10 pm ET start time) is Orioles 4 Mariners 1.

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Baltimore Orioles: 26-13 (+10.10 units) on the moneyline in their last 39 games. 26-15 (+15.10 units) on the runline in their last 41 games. 46-25 (+17.10 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 71 games.

Seattle Mariners: 23-31 (-15.40 units) on the first 5 runline in their last 54 games. 21-33 (-12.20 units) on the first 5 moneyline in their last 54 games. 30-13 to the under in their last 43 home games.

Baltimore Orioles:  K. Bradish (SP) - UCL Sprain. J. Means (SP) - Elbow. D. Coulombe (RP) - Elbow. D. Kremer (SP) - Tricep. T. Wells (SP) - Elbow. F. Bautista (RP) - Elbow.

Seattle Mariners:  L. Raley (LF) - Shoulder. B. Woo (SP) - Hamstring. G. Speier (RP) - Rotator Cuff. S. Haggerty (LF) - Achilles. M. Brash (RP) - Elbow. G. Santos (RP) - Lat. J. Kowar (RP) - Elbow.

“I thought he threw the ball great. Really good changeup tonight. That start in Houston didn't go well, but ... he's had four or five really good ones. This was right up there also. Really good job of changing speeds.” - Brandon Hyde after his team’s win against the Mariners in their game on Tuesday.

“Baltimore has got a good club, we know that. These games are going to be tight. We've got to figure out a way to get the big hit late, and that's been a struggle for us lately.” - Scott Servais after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Tuesday.

G Henderson (L) SS

A Rutschman (S) C

R O'Hearn (L) 1B

A Santander (S) RF

H Kjerstad (L) DH

J Westburg (R) 3B

C Cowser (L) LF

C Mullins (L) CF

J Mateo (R) 2B

J Crawford (L) SS

T France (R) 1B

L Raley (L) LF

C Raleigh (S) C

J Polanco (S) 2B

D Canzone (L) RF

J Rodríguez (R) CF

M Haniger (R) DH

J Rojas (L) 3B

Batting Average:  Ryan McKenna (.375)

Hits:  Adley Rutschman (95)

Home Runs:  Gunnar Henderson (26)

RBI:  Gunnar Henderson (58)

Stolen Bases:  Cedric Mullins (16)

Wins:  Grayson Rodriguez (10)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (20)

ERA:  Corbin Burnes (2.28)

Batting Average:  Samad Taylor (.400)

Hits:  Julio Rodríguez (83)

Home Runs:  Cal Raleigh (14)

RBI:  Cal Raleigh (50)

Stolen Bases:  Julio Rodríguez (17)

Wins:  George Kirby (7)

Saves:  Andrés Muñoz (13)

ERA:  Andrés Muñoz (1.64)

Managers:

Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Hyde (6th season)

Seattle Mariners: Scott Servais (9th season)