Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees Prediction, Preview and Odds - 09/26/2024

Game Time: 7:05 pm ET, Thursday, September 26, 2024

Venue:  Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY 

Where to Watch:  MLB Network

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles +110, Yankees -130; Over/Under:  8.5 runs

Baltimore Orioles:  87-70 (2nd place, AL East)

New York Yankees:  92-65 (1st place, AL East)

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Baltimore Orioles:  4-6 last 10

New York Yankees:  7-3 last 10

The Orioles are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with an 87-70 record overall and have a road record of 43-33. This is the series finale of a 3-game series with the Yankees on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Orioles won the series opener of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 5th in the MLB with a .748 OPS. Zach Eflin is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Corbin Burnes is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 15-8 with a 2.95 ERA this season. His team won their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 ER, 0 HR, and 3 BB with 8 Ks on 3 hits through 7 IP against the Detroit Tigers.

The Yankees are entering this series off a win and completed the sweep in their 3-game series against the Oakland Athletics 3-0 in their last series. They enter this game with a 92-65 record overall and have a home record of 42-34. This is the 3rd game of a 3-game series with the Orioles on Thursday with the 2nd game of this series still to be played on Wednesday. The Yankees lost the 1st game of this series on Tuesday. Their offense ranks 3rd in the MLB with a .763 OPS. Marcus Stroman is their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Gerrit Cole is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA this season. His team lost 2 of their last 3 games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 1 earned run, 0 homers, and 1 BB with 7 strikeouts on 2 hits through 9 innings played against the Oakland Athletics.

The current betting odds have the Yankees listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Yankees have looked really good in their games this season with their 92-65 record overall which leads the AL East with one of the best records in the entire MLB. They have also looked good in their home games with their 42-34 home record. Meanwhile, the Orioles have looked good in their games this season with their 87-70 record overall which has them in 2nd place of the AL East and fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have also looked good in their road games with their 43-33 road record this season. This is a big series that could end up deciding who wins the AL East. Both of these teams have clinched a playoff spot, but the Yankees can seal the division in this series so both still have plenty to play for. The Yankees have looked a lot better in their games lately, going 7-3 in their last 10 games while the Orioles are only 4-6. The Yankees are rolling out their ace for this game too. Cole is on the mound here and he is 7-5 with a 3.67 ERA this season. The team has lost 2 of the last 3 games that he started in, but he only gave up 1 earned run in his last start and has looked really good lately. The Orioles are going with Burnes in this one and he has looked great this season with his 15-8 record and his 2.95 ERA. He hasn't been giving up many runs lately either, giving up no runs in his last start and the team winning 2 games in a row with him starting. This is going to be a tight game with some great pitching, but the Yankees do have the slightly better offense along with the home crowd on their side and that should be enough for them to win this one and finally put this division away. The best way to place a bet here is on the Yankees to win this game. 

Orioles Yankees Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, September 26, 2024 (7:05 pm ET start time) is Yankees 2 Orioles 1.

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Baltimore Orioles: 43-33 (+5.7 units) on the moneyline in road games. 31-18 (+9.1 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 33-19 (+10.6 units) on the moneyline vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 or better. 24-16 OVER vs. teams outscoring opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season. 64-39 OVER against right-handed starters. 

New York Yankees: 42-34 (-15.1 units) on the moneyline in home games. 25-24 (-5.3 units) on the moneyline against division opponents. 61-51 (-13.8 units) on the moneyline vs. a team with a good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.350 or better. 25-18 OVER against division opponents. 60-45 OVER vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less.

Baltimore Orioles:  B. Smith (RP) Undefined - Groin. Z. Eflin (SP) Out - Shoulder. J. Mateo (SS) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. G. Rodriguez (SP) Undefined - Back. K. Bradish (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. T. Wells (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Means (SP) Out - Elbow. F. Bautista (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

New York Yankees:  N. Cortes Jr. (RP) Undefined - Elbow. J. Cousins (RP) Undefined - Upper Body. L. Trivino (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. LeMahieu (2B) Ten Day IL - Hip. J. Brubaker (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. J. Loaisiga (RP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow.

“Last year winning the American League East was just such an achievement for us and the expectations were much lower. We came into this year with higher expectations. We made a lot of moves that kind of pushed some chips in for this year and then we just didn’t have the fortune that we would have hoped for. I think today is a sense of relief.” - Mike Elias after the Orioles win against the Yankees in their game on Tuesday.

“He does make some mistakes on base. On the bases, he’s cleaned it up a lot from I think last year and the year before where he was getting himself in trouble a lot. I think in his case, has toned down some of the aggressiveness, but I think also tonight is a case of protecting a runner, too. But, again, it’s got to be bluff or sell out and go.” - Aaron Boone on Gleyber Torres after his team’s loss against the Orioles in their game on Tuesday.

Gunnar Henderson (L) SS

Jordan Westburg (R) 2B

Anthony Santander (S) RF

Colton Cowser (L) LF

Ryan Mountcastle (R) 1B

Ryan O'Hearn (L) DH

Ramón Urías (R) 3B

Cedric Mullins (L) CF

James McCann (R) C

Gleyber Torres (R) 2B

Juan Soto (L) RF

Aaron Judge (R) CF

Austin Wells (L) C

Giancarlo Stanton (R) DH

Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 3B

Jasson Domínguez (S) LF

Anthony Rizzo (L) 1B

Anthony Volpe (R) SS

Batting Average:  Cristian Pache (1.000)

Hits:  Gunnar Henderson (174)

Home Runs:  Anthony Santander (44)

RBI:  Anthony Santander (100)

Stolen Bases:  Cedric Mullins (30)

Wins:  Corbin Burnes (15)

Saves:  Craig Kimbrel (23)

ERA:  Vinny Nittoli (0.00)

Batting Average:  Taylor Trammell (1.000)

Hits:  Aaron Judge (177)

Home Runs:  Aaron Judge (56)

RBI:  Aaron Judge (139)

Stolen Bases:  Anthony Volpe (27)

Wins:  Carlos Rodón (16)

Saves:  Clay Holmes (29)

ERA:  Jonathan Loáisiga (0.00)

Managers:

Baltimore Orioles: Brandon Hyde (6th season)

New York Yankees: Aaron Boone (7th season)