Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction, Preview and Odds - 04/16/2026

Game Time: 6:10 pm ET, Thursday, April 16, 2026

Venue:  Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH

Where to Watch:  MLB TV

DraftKings:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles -102, Guardians -118; Over/Under:  8 runs

Bet365:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles +100, Guardians -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

BetMGM:  Moneyline odds:  Orioles +100, Guardians -120; Over/Under:  8 runs

Baltimore Orioles:  9-9 (3rd place, AL East)

Cleveland Guardians:  10-9 (2nd place, AL Central)

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Baltimore Orioles:  6-4 last 10

Cleveland Guardians:  5-5 last 10

The Orioles are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 9-9 record overall and have a road record of 3-3. This is the series opener of a 4-game series with the Guardians on Thursday. Their offense ranks 8th in the MLB with a .727 OPS. Kyle Bradish was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Shane Baz is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA this season. His team lost their last 2 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season appearance, he allowed 3 ER, 1 HR, and 2 BB with 4 SO on 9 hits through 5 IP against the San Francisco Giants.

The Guardians are entering this series off a loss and lost their 3-game series against the St Louis Cardinals 2-1 in their last series. They enter this game with a 10-9 record overall and have a home record of 4-2. This is the 1st game of a 4-game series with the Orioles on Thursday. Their offense ranks 14th in the MLB with a .703 OPS. Slade Cecconi was their starting pitcher on Wednesday while Parker Messick is making his start in this game on Thursday. He is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA this season. His team won their last 3 straight games this season with him making an appearance. In his last MLB regular season start, he allowed 0 earned runs, 0 homers, and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts on 4 hits through 6.2 innings pitched against the Atlanta Braves.

The current betting odds have the Guardians listed as a slight favorite in this game according to Draftkings Sportsbook. The Guardians have looked good in their games this season with their 10-9 record overall which has them right near the top of the AL Central. They have looked good in their own ballpark too with their 4-2 home record this season. Meanwhile, the Orioles have looked good in their games this season with their 9-9 record overall which has them right in the middle of the AL East. They haven't been a great road team so far with their 3-3 road record this year. The Guardians are 5-5 in their last 10 games and just lost their last series while the Orioles are 6-4 in their last 10 games, but they just lost their last series too and are starting to cool off now. Neither team has had a great offense this season so this game is going to come down to pitching and the Guardians have a big advantage there. Messick is on the mound for the Guardians in this one and he has been lights out this season. He is 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA and hasn't been giving up many runs at all, almost going 7 full innings in his last start without giving up a run. Baz is on the mound for the Orioles in this one and he hasn't been bad this season. He is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and has been giving up more runs though. He gave up 3 earned runs in his last start against the Giants who don't have a great offense and his team has lost 2 games in a row now with him starting. The Guardians have the much better pitching matchup in this one and they have the better bullpen to rely on late too. The best way to place a bet here is on the Guardians to win this game. 

Orioles Guardians Prediction:  Our MLB Pick for Thursday, April 16, 2026 (6:10 pm ET start time) is Guardians 3 Orioles 2.

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Baltimore Orioles: 175-168 (-16.7 units) on the moneyline in all games. 118-121 (-15.1 units) on the moneyline vs. good fielding teams - averaging 0.6 errors/game or less. 45-46 (-3.6 units) on the moneyline against left-handed starters. 51-36 UNDER against left-handed starters.

Cleveland Guardians: 195-159 (+35.2 units) on the moneyline in all games. 77-40 (+19.1 units) on the moneyline as a home favorite of -110 or higher. 137-118 (+14 units) on the moneyline against right-handed starters. 3-0 UNDER at home against right-handed starters.

Baltimore Orioles:  R. Mountcastle (1B) Sixty Day IL - Foot Fracture. Y. Hiraldo (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. T. O'Neill (RF) Seven Day IL - Illness. A. Rutschman (C) Ten Day IL - Ankle. Z. Eflin (SP) Sixty Day IL - Elbow. D. Enns (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Foot. J. Westburg (3B) Sixty Day IL - UCL. A. Kittredge (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Shoulder. H. Kjerstad (LF) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. J. Holliday (2B) Ten Day IL - Finger. K. Akin (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Groin. F. Bautista (RP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder. C. Selby (SP) Sixty Day IL - Shoulder.

Cleveland Guardians:  G. Arias (SS) Ten Day IL - Hamstring. A. Walters (RP) Fifteen Day IL - Lat.

"To me, it was just one of those things where it was a matter of time where we had one of these wins. It was just great to see everybody, collectively, do it." - Craig Albernaz after his team’s win against the Diamondbacks in their game on Monday. 

"Cade is a little erratic. It's not the pinpoint command and control that we're used to seeing from Cade. His stuff is still moving forward really well. The fastball is still one of the best pitches in baseball. Just the command and the control right now are a little bit off. He's aware of it. We're aware of it. And he's working every day to get it back." - Stephen Vogt on Cade Smith this season. 

Taylor Ward (R) DH

Gunnar Henderson (L) SS

Pete Alonso (R) 1B

Johnathan Rodríguez (R) RF

Weston Wilson (R) LF

Jeremiah Jackson (R) 2B

Coby Mayo (R) 3B

Sam Huff (R) C

Blaze Alexander (R) CF

Steven Kwan (L) CF

Chase DeLauter (L) RF

José Ramírez (S) DH

Kyle Manzardo (L) 1B

George Valera (L) LF

Juan Brito (S) 2B

Daniel Schneemann (L) 3B

Bo Naylor (L) C

Brayan Rocchio (S) SS

Batting Average:  Taylor Ward (.319)

Hits:  Taylor Ward (22)

Home Runs:  Gunnar Henderson (6)

RBI:  Gunnar Henderson (13)

Stolen Bases:  Gunnar Henderson (3)

Wins:  Trevor Rogers (2)

Saves:  Ryan Helsley (5)

ERA:  Rico Garcia (0.00)

Batting Average:  Angel Martínez (.314)

Hits:  Angel Martínez (16)

Home Runs:  Chase DeLauter (5)

RBI:  Chase DeLauter (12)

Stolen Bases:  José Ramírez (8)

Wins:  Connor Brogdon (2)

Saves:  Cade Smith (3)

ERA:  Tim Herrin (0.00)

Managers:

Baltimore Orioles: Craig Albernaz (1st season)

Cleveland Guardians: Stephen Vogt (3rd season)