Ball State Cardinals vs. Toledo Rockets: Prediction, Preview, Picks & Odds - 11/8/2022

Time: 8 p.m. ET

Venue: Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH

Where to watch: ESPN

DraftKings: Check back later

FanDuel: Toledo -16.5

BetMGM: Check back later

Caesars: Check back later

Ball State: 5-4 (3-2 MAC)

Toledo: 6-3 (4-1 MAC)

Ball State: won 27-20 at Kent State

Toledo: won 27-24 at Eastern Michigan

You always look for those underrated matchups in college football throughout the week that might benefit the country for appeal. And if you’re not one to enjoy the MACtion, you might want to get a load of this one between the Ball State Cardinals and Toledo Rockets this week for what may be MAC Championship implications.

Both squads are coming off wins last week – Ball State with a 27-20 win at Kent State, Toledo with a 27-24 win over Eastern Michigan – and the Cardinals can become bowl eligible with a victory against what seems like a red-hot Toledo group. But what has gotten into Ball State lately? If not for that Eastern Michigan loss a few weeks ago, the Cardinals would be sitting pretty in the conference standings.

But to go on the road and beat a tough Kent State team is a good start. And of course, getting Carson Steele to once again run over defenses like he’s done all season has been a great start. Steele ran for 192 yards and a touchdown while quarterback John Paddock threw for 254 yards and two touchdowns in the victory. Especially when Ball State fell behind 13-0 early and responded with 20 unanswered points to help the cause.

I really like this Ball State group. Are they the best team in the conference? No. Are they too one-dimensional? Maybe. But when you have a running back like Steele making the plays he is, you can afford to be this way. Plus with the way they’ve been playing as of late, you kind of want that ground game to carry you through the winter.

Toledo is a different beast with throwing the ball, and when the ball is in Tucker Gleason’s hands, things have gone well. Gleason threw for 238 yards and three touchdowns, including the 1-yard touchdown to Lenny Kuhl with 2:09 remaining for the win. Toledo survived Eastern Michigan’s star running back Samson Evans’ three touchdowns but benefitted off the fact that EMU couldn’t pass the ball well in that game.

Toledo is going to rely on its air game while Ball State will have its ground game to rely on. Whomever can generate that side of the ball to the best of their ability will win this week. But the key here is how they will operate because while Toledo throws it well, Ball State can defend it well. Toledo, however, has struggled against the run game. It’s up to the home team, at this rate.

When in doubt, take the home team. Toledo has been red-hot and the fact they’re back at home is going to look good in that regard. Ball State is fun, but I like Toledo in this instance. Toledo by 10

Ball State is 6-7 ATS on the road the last three years.

Ball State is 11-8 ATS after a conference game the last three years.

Ball State is 5-1 ATS in its last six after an upset conference win the last three years.

Toledo is 16-26 ATS off a bye week since 1992.

Toledo is 27-13 ATS off a two-game road trip since 1992.

Passing: John Paddock -- 2,239 yards, 16 TD, 10 INT

Rushing: Carson Steele -- 1,082 yards, 9 TD

Receiving: Jayshon Jackson -- 735 yards, 3 TD

Passing: Dequan Finn -- 1,637 yards, 18 TD, 9 INT

Rushing: Jacquez Stuart -- 521 yards, 3 TD

Receiving: Jerjuan Newton -- 554 yards, 7 TD