by Chuck Sommers
Tuesday, Nov 01, 2022
Time: 7 p.m. ET
Venue: Dix Stadium, Kent, OH
Where to watch: ESPNU
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Kent State -7
FanDuel: Kent State -7
BetMGM: Kent State -7
Caesars: Kent State -7
Season record
Ball State: 4-4 (2-2 MAC)
Kent State: 3-5 (2-2 MAC)
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Ball State - Kent State preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Ball State: lost 20-16 vs. Eastern Michigan
Kent State: won 33-27 vs. Akron
It’s me, the big fan of MACtion during the early part of the week. Where else are you going to find quality college football on a Tuesday? We’re already getting one fun game on Tuesday in Athens, Ohio, but don’t sleep on the Ball State Cardinals going up to another part of Ohio – Kent, of course – to take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in an important game for both teams on Tuesday.
It’s me, the big fan of MACtion during the early part of the week. Where else are you going to find quality college football on a Tuesday? We’re already getting one fun game on Tuesday in Athens, Ohio, but don’t sleep on the Ball State Cardinals going up to another part of Ohio – Kent, of course – to take on the Kent State Golden Flashes in an important game for both teams on Tuesday.
Both clubs are coming into this one locked at 2-2 in MAC play but both had different results from last week. Ball State had its three-game winning streak snapped with a 20-16 loss to Eastern Michigan last time out. Ball State quarterback John Paddock completed 15 of 26 passes for 178 yards, two touchdowns, but had two interceptions in what was a rough day for the home crowd in this conference matchup. The Cardinals had 114 rushing yards on 34 carries with the longest of the game being 13 yards. That can’t be sustainable if Ball State wants to make a run at a bowl game.
The defense did come to play that game, however. Four sacks on the day, Cole Pearce had 15 tackles, Jaquan Amos had 14 himself. The defense did all it could, even though Eastern Michigan’s offense wasn’t that great. The Cardinals held Austin Smith to just 197 yards on 20 of 34 passing, and the running game was held to below 4 yards per carry. All things seemed to be going Ball State’s way. It just wasn’t at this rate.
Kent State is on its own little weird situation here, as well. Remember a month ago when the Golden Flashes only lost by 17 to No. 1 Georgia? Unfortunately for them, the Flashes couldn’t capitalize off that semi-momentum they built in Athens. They knocked off Ohio the next week, but lost to Miami-Ohio and Toledo the next two weeks. But maybe Kent State got it back after winning 33-27 against Akron last week. Kent State quarterback Devin Kargman threw for 213 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Marquez Cooper ran for 137 yards. Devontez Walker caught both of the touchdown passes on a 5-catch, 72-yard game.
Prediction
With November upon us, the home teams are usually the better plays here. And if you look at Kent State over the last few years, it’s been as advertised. The Golden Flashes have won eight straight when labeled as a home favorite, and are 11-2 in their last 13 when favored. When the lights are bright and expectations are heaped on them, Kent State usually pans out in good fashion. The Flashes are favored by 6.5 at most books. That might be too high of a number if this defensive battle takes place, but I like the way Kent State turns things on down the road. And that’s what I think happens here. Kent State by 13
Betting trends
Ball State is 8-9 ATS as a road underdog the last three years.
Ball State is 1-5 ATS in its last six after winning three of four.
Ball State is 9-10 ATS in its last 19 conference games.
Kent State is 4-4 ATS as a home favorite the last three years.
Kent State is 18-13 ATS off a bye week since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Ball State:
Passing: John Paddock -- 1,985 yards, 14 TD, 9 INT
Rushing: Carson Steele -- 890 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Jayshon Jackson -- 633 yards, 2 TD
Kent State:
Passing: Collin Schlee -- 1,548 yards, 8 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Marquez Cooper -- 845 yards, 8 TD
Receiving: Dante Cephas -- 731 yards, 3 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
