by Amedeus Mastrangelo
Thursday, Dec 09, 2021
Game Time: 2:30 pm ET, Saturday, December 25, 2021
Venue: Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, AL
Where to Watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Point Spread: Ball State +4.5, GA State -4.5; Over/Under: 50 points
Bet365: Point Spread: Ball State +4.5, GA State -4.5; Over/Under: 50 points
BetMGM: Point Spread: Ball State +4, GA State -4; Over/Under: 49.5 points
Season Record
Ball State Cardinals: 6-6 (4th place, MAC West)
Georgia State Panthers: 7-5 (2nd place, Sun Belt Group A)
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Ball State Cardinals vs Georgia State Panthers Preview and Analysis
Recent Form
Ball State Cardinals: won at home on Nov. 23 against the Buffalo Bulls 20-3.
Georgia State Panthers: won at home on Nov. 27 against the Troy Trojans 37-10.
Ball State Cardinals Analysis
Ball State is coming into this game after finishing their regular season with a 6-6 record overall and they will be playing the first neutral site game on their schedule this season in this game. They have lost 2 of their last 3 games but are coming into this one off of a win in their last game which snapped a 2 game losing streak that they were on. Their 2 losses were against the Northern Illinois Huskies and the Central Michigan Chippewas while their win came against the Buffalo Bulls in their last game. Drew Plitt completed 19/31 passes for 176 yards and 1 touchdown in that one. Carson Steele led the team in rushing with 45 yards on 25 carries while Plitt ran in 1 TD himself. Jayshon Jackson had a nice day as he led the receivers with 103 yards and 1 touchdown on 9 receptions. Jaylin Thomas led the defense in that game with 6 solo tackles and 8 assisted ones. Jordan Ward and Keionte Newson both led the defense in sacks in that game with 1 each while Thomas, J.T Wahee, Malcolm Lee, and Bryce Cosby all came up with 1 interception each for them in that one. They have scored 293 points in their 12 games this season averaging 24.4 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 318 points against them allowing 26.5 PPG. Their offense is averaging 336.3 YPG while their defense is allowing 416 YPG.
Georgia State Panthers Analysis
GA State is coming into this game after finishing their season with a 7-5 record overall and they will be playing their first neutral site game this season in this game. They have won 6 of their last 7 games and are coming into this one on a 3 game winning streak after another win in their last game. Their last loss was against the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns while their 6 wins in that span came against the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks, the Texas State Bobcats, the Georgia Southern Eagles, the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, the Arkansas State Red Wolves, and the Troy Trojans in their last game. Darren Grainger completed 11/22 passes for 140 yards and 2 touchdowns in that one. Jamyest Williams had a nice day on the ground as he led the team in rushing with 108 yards and 1 touchdown on 15 carries while Tucker Gregg led the team in carries with 17 for 83 yards. Sam Pinckney led the receivers with 51 yards and 1 touchdown on 3 receptions while Aubry Payne had 23 yards and 1 touchdown on 2 receptions. Chris Moore led the defense in that game with 5 solo tackles and 3 assisted ones. Jamil Muhammad led the defense in sacks with 2 while Antavious Lane and Bryquice Brown both came up with 1 interception each for them in that one. They have scored 315 points in their 12 games this season averaging 26.3 PPG and they have allowed their opponents to score 332 points against them allowing 27.7 PPG. Their offense is averaging 383.4 YPG while their defense is allowing 405.9 YPG.
Ball State vs Georgia State Prediction
GA State is coming into this Camellia Bowl game as a 4.5 point favorite with the current betting odds according to Draftkings Sportsbook. GA State had a very bad start to their season going 1-4 but they cleaned up against conference opponents this season as they went 6-1 in the second half of their season. Ball State has not been playing well in their recent games and they are lucky to even be here as they had to win their final game of the season just to qualify for this game. GA State has been playing so well that they had already become bowl eligible the week before and they put on a crazy run to even finish the season with 7 wins after starting 1-4. GA State is the hotter team right now and they are playing much better recently. The best bet to place in this game is on GA State to cover the spread here.
Ball State Georgia State Prediction: Our NCAAF Pick for Saturday, December 25, 2021 (2:30 pm ET start time) is GA State 31 Ball State 17.
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NCAAF Betting Trends
Ball State Cardinals: 4-8 ATS in all games. 1-5 ATS off 4 or more consecutive unders. 3-6 ATS after playing a game where 29 total points or less were scored. 8-15 ATS after 4 consecutive games where they committed 1 or less turnovers.
Georgia State Panthers: 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. 21-12 ATS in all games. 8-4 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56. 10-4 ATS as a favorite. 16-7 ATS after playing a conference game. 12-6 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games. 18-10 ATS in games played on turf. 30-15 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders. 19-7 ATS after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games.
Key Injuries
Ball State Cardinals: D. Koch (TE) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. K. Slaven (OL) Out indefinitely - Undisclosed injury. T. Evans (RB) Out indefinitely - Leg injury.
Georgia State Panthers: None.
Notable Quotes
"Obviously any bowl game certainly is exciting and, more than anything, I’m excited for our guys, especially the seniors to be able to have a bowl game experience. (It's) a normal week I guess if you will since last year was abbreviated due to everything going on with COVID. So I’m happy for those guys to have a bowl week type of experience and to be able to enjoy that." - Mike Neu on his team making it to the Camellia Bowl.
“Let me explain typically how Christmas Day works at my house. You wake up, you’re all excited and you open presents and then have a big lunch. Then there’s that afternoon lull and so, guess what, we’re the only bowl game on Christmas Day. So, to have the exposure of that and the opportunity to go play on that special day is really remarkable.” - Shawn Elliott on his team playing in the bowl game on Christmas day.
Starting Lineups
Ball State Cardinals
WR Tyler, Yo'Heinz
WR Justin Hall
WR Jackson, Jayshon
TE Williams, Jordan
QB Plitt, Drew
RB Jones, Will
FB Rudy, Cody
Georgia State Panthers
WR McCoy, Cornelius
WR Pinckney, Sam
WR Terrance Dixon
TE Carter, Roger
QB Grainger, Darren
RB Gregg, Tucker
Statistical Leaders
Ball State Cardinals
Passing: D. Plitt (2248)
Rushing: C. Steele (829)
Receiving: J. Jackson (683)
Touchdowns: J. Hall (11)
Georgia State Panthers
Passing: D. Grainger (1512)
Rushing: T. Gregg (899)
Receiving: J. Thrash (447)
Touchdowns: J. Williams (10)
Coaches:
Ball State Cardinals: Mike Neu (6th season)
Georgia State Panthers: Shawn Elliott (5th season)
Amedeus Mastrangelo
About the Author:
Amedeus Mastrangelo has been heavily wagering on all sports for years and plays just about everything, including sides, totals, favorites, underdogs, against the spread, alternative spreads, first half, second half, player props, and futures. The bottom line is, if Mastrangelo can see an edge in any way shape or form, then he's going to take advantage.
