by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Sep 30, 2021
Game time: 9 p.m. ET, Oct. 2, 2021
Venue: Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA
Where to watch: ESPN
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: LSU -3.5; O/U 55.5; LSU -170, Auburn +150
BetMGM: LSU -3.5; O/U 56; LSU -182, Auburn +150
Caesars: LSU -3.5; O/U 55.5; LSU -170, Auburn +145
Season record
No. 22 Auburn: 3-1
LSU: 3-1
Ben Burns had a solid 3-2-1 week in what was an eventful and upset-filled weekend of college football. Ben is back for his Thursday thoughts on Virginia and Miami, but don’t make a move on it until you check in with him. Catch Ben’s and other plays available right now at the Shop Picks page, where you can find all of the Best Bets from our champion sports handicappers.
Auburn - LSU preview and analysis
Recent form
Auburn: won 34-24 vs. Georgia State on Sept. 25
LSU: won 28-25 at Mississippi State on Sept. 25
It would appear that the reports of the LSU Tigers' demise have been greatly exaggerated.
The Tigers have reeled off three straight wins to counter their opening-season loss to the UCLA Bruins and have found themselves back on the doorstep of the top 25.
LSU could find its way back in the rankings should they take down the Auburn Tigers on Saturday in Death Valley. No. 22 Auburn is coming off a 10-point win over the Georgia State Panthers, while LSU escaped with a 28-25 win on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
And while there's still that uncertainty that surrounds LSU after what happened in Week 1, LSU has won 10 straight against Auburn in Tiger Stadium. It's a streak that dates back to the Nick Saban days in 2001, with the last win from Auburn coming in 1999 by a final count of 41-7.
That's likely not happening this time around with how solid LSU quarterback Max Johnson has been. He has six consecutive games of at least three touchdown passes, the only quarterback in school history to reach that mark. Not even Joe Burrow did that during his dominant run a couple years ago.
After getting manhandled by the UCLA offense, LSU has gotten things under control as of late. LSU's 20 sacks lead the nation, led by defensive end BJ Ojulari's 4.5.
If there's hope that Auburn can keep this one close, it's based on 11 of the last 17 meetings being decided by seven points or less, including the matchups from 2016-19. Auburn put a whooping on the ghost that was LSU last season, 48-11 at Jordan-Hare Stadium at home.
The good news is Auburn seems battle-tested after a tough game at Penn State a couple of weeks ago. But if it comes to a high-scoring game, this could favor Auburn. The Tigers are 348-9 all-time when scoring 30 points, 176-3 when putting up 40 and 83-0 when scoring 50.
If it gets to that number, something is seriously wrong with the universe.
Prediction
The scary thought for Auburn is who's the starting quarterback. Bo Nix was benched as T.J. Finley led the comeback win over Georgia State. The Tigers average 44 points per game, but there has to be some sort of dropoff if Nix can't go. And if LSU's defense can keep this a low-scoring game, that favors them a great deal. LSU by 13
Betting trends
The under is 8-2 in Auburn’s last 10 road games.
LSU is 15-8 ATS as a favorite in its last 23, and 6-4 in its last 10 as a home favorite.
Players to watch
Auburn: No matter who’s at quarterback, they’ve got to get the ball to the receivers. Along with leading receiver Kobe Hudson, Shedrick Jackson had a strong game last week, catching four passes for 70 yards and a touchdown.
LSU: B.J. Ojulari has been a force at the defensive line for LSU, posting a team and SEC high 4.5 sacks entering this weekend.
Statistical leaders
Auburn:
Passing: Bo Nix -- 724 yards, 6 TD
Rushing: Tank Bigsby -- 403 yards, 4 TD
Receiving: Kobe Hudson -- 197 yards, 1 TD
Defense: Roger McCreary -- 2 INT
LSU:
Passing: Max Johnson -- 1,144 yards, 15 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Corey Kiner -- 144 yards, 2 TD
Receiving: Kayshon Boutte -- 309 yards, 8 TD
Defense: B.J. Ojulari -- 4.5 sacks
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
