by Chuck Sommers
Monday, Nov 21, 2022
Iron Bowl
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -22
FanDuel: Alabama -22.5
BetMGM: Alabama -21.5
Caesars: Alabama -21.5
Season record
Auburn: 5-6 (2-5 SEC)
No. 8 Alabama: 9-2 (5-2 SEC)
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Auburn - Alabama preview, analysis and prediction
Last week
Auburn: won 41-17 vs. Western Kentucky
Alabama: won 34-0 vs. Austin Peay
When's the last time the Iron Bowl had this little luster? I really can't think of a time when Auburn and Alabama would play each other that it would not mean so much in the final week of the regular season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a time when that wasn't the case. Maybe 15 years ago? Maybe 20? Nevertheless, I think it has a lot to do with the fact that Alabama will not be playing for either the SEC title or in the College Football Playoff that makes me think this game doesn't have as much luster as it does anymore.
When's the last time the Iron Bowl had this little luster? I really can't think of a time when Auburn and Alabama would play each other that it would not mean so much in the final week of the regular season. You'd be hard-pressed to find a time when that wasn't the case. Maybe 15 years ago? Maybe 20? Nevertheless, I think it has a lot to do with the fact that Alabama will not be playing for either the SEC title or in the College Football Playoff that makes me think this game doesn't have as much luster as it does anymore.
But it has everything to do with Auburn, in which the Tigers now find themselves one win away from the bowl game after winning the last two weeks. Auburn is coming up a 13-10 victory over Texas A&M, followed by a 41-17 victory over Western Kentucky last week. Alabama, meanwhile, has sort of bounced back since the loss to LSU three weeks ago, but barely. Alabama defeated Mississippi 30-24, and then in the ultimate showing of knowing that the Crimson Tide are in a position where they just don't care right now, they won 34-0 against Austin Peay over the weekend.
Anytime Alabama would face a program like that, you would almost guarantee a 40-point, 50-point win with no strings attached and you would expect to shut out just like that. But this Alabama team has just been soundly defeated mentally possibly physically, after losing to Tennessee a month ago and then losing to LSU in the fashion that it did just three weeks ago.
Bryce Young threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns, with Jermaine Burton catching both of those along with 128 yards on 7 receptions, and Jase McClellan running for 156 yards and two touchdowns to lead the Alabama offense.
When we ultimately look back at Alabama’s disappointing season I do think we need to point to the moment when Young got hurt and had to miss time. Not that his return hindered Alabama, because saying that a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback would throw off the rhythm for Alabama would be stupid, but Alabama’s offense has not looked right since young returned and in the games where Alabama lost, the offense just has not looked good.
Fortunately for Alabama, they are at home for their biggest game of the season, and one has to wonder if Auburn can hang around long enough like it did last year and almost beat Alabama to give them the chance to pull off the upset. Unfortunately, that would require Auburn to be a good team, but they are not a good team right now. There is a reason why Auburn has floundered the way that it has en route to a 5-6 record despite winning their last two.
Auburn's offense has been abysmal all year, their defense could not stop a Nosebleed, and if there's anything that I am 100% expecting in this one it's that Alabama will be able to put up at least 40 on this defense. Of course, there is always the exception of a trap game, especially in a rivalry game, but I don't see this one being that.
Prediction
Alabama should win this game by halftime. There's no question about it. I can see Auburn playing strong enough for maybe the first quarter or the first half, but ultimately Alabama's gonna be pulling away and will prepare itself for a bowl game. Alabama by 24
Betting trends
Auburn is 44-69 ATS after allowing 100 rushing yards or less since 1992.
Alabama is 37-21 ATS as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 since 1992.
Auburn is 0-7 ATS on the road after an ATS win the last 3 seasons.
Alabama is 26-5 ATS off 2 no-covers where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
Statistical leaders
Auburn:
Passing: Robby Ashford -- 1,536 yards, 6 TD, 7 INT
Rushing: Tank Bigsby -- 907 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Ja'Varrius Johnson -- 473 yards, 2 TD
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 2,664 yards, 24 TD, 4 INT
Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs -- 774 yards, 6 TD
Receiving: Jacorey Brooks -- 547 yards, 6 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
