by Chuck Sommers
Thursday, Nov 25, 2021
Game time: 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
Where to watch: CBS
Opening Odds at USA Sportsbooks
DraftKings: Alabama -19.5
BetMGM: Alabama -19.5
Caesars: Alabama -19.5
Season record
No. 3 Alabama: 10-1 (6-1 SEC)
Auburn: 6-5 (3-4 SEC)
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Alabama - Auburn preview and analysis
Last week
Alabama: won 42-35 vs. Arkansas
Auburn: lost 21-17 at South Carolina
The Iron Bowl is upon us. It's not often it's used as a tune-up game for the Alabama Crimson Tide.
The No. 2-ranked Crimson Tide will close the regular season against the Auburn Tigers in what could be considered a warmup for the SEC Championship Game the following week, where win or lose, Alabama will meet the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs in the title game.
Alabama is coming off a narrow 42-35 win over the Arkansas Razorbacks in what might have been a Heisman-clinching moment for quarterback Bryce Young. The sophomore put on a show during Senior Day, throwing for 559 yards and five touchdowns, just edging out Arkansas' KJ Jefferson (326 yards, 3 TDs).
“Bryce is very smart. I’m pretty sure you can see on the field but I’ve had classes with him and Bryce is a smart person,” Alabama linebacker Will Anderson said. “And his ability on the football field is even more surprising. He’s very smart on the field. The numbers he’s putting up and the stats he has this year, how he handled everything, especially last year."
The quarterback is on the cusp of a 4,000-yard season and is two touchdowns from 40. It's not quite on the pace of Mac Jones' run to a national championship last season, but Young is certainly two wins away from getting a realistic chance at winning another ring and going pro.
Alabama is 2-3 ATS in its last five, but there's a theme. The Tide go from dominating games they should be -- Mississippi State, Tennessee and New Mexico State -- but the likes of LSU and Arkansas, two teams that have shown signs of improvement, were able to play Alabama tough at home.
It helped that the Tide had four straight home games before closing out on the road at Auburn, but the Tigers are not in the position they were a month ago; which was posing as a serious threat to unseat Alabama from the SEC title game once again.
Since Auburn lost starting quarterback Bo Nix due to a season-ending ankle injury, the Tigers lost three straight to Texas A&M, Mississippi State and South Carolina. TJ Finley has stepped in to lead Auburn to some close games, but not enough like the projected Nix would do. Finley went 17 of 32 for 188 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina last week.
Despite not having Nix, the Tigers were favored the last two weeks and came nowhere close for the cover. Auburn doesn't have to worry about bowl eligibility seeing how it's already clinched, but Finley and the Tigers can create some last-minute chaos before conference championship weekend.
“It’s all about Auburn. As long as Auburn does what Auburn needs to do, we’ll come out with a victory," Finley said. "Me individually as a competitor, of course I want to go out there and do better than the other quarterback."
Prediction
I think Alabama needs a road game after how the last four games have gone. Getting away for the biggest game of their season should do them some good. There's no doubt Auburn will be ready for this one, but Alabama will pull away in the end and move on to the heavyweight bout everyone can't wait to see. Alabama by 21
Betting trends
Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six after scoring and allowing at least 30 points the prior game.
Alabama is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 following a game where they forced one turnover or less.
Auburn is 9-11 ATS off an under.
Auburn is 14-4 straight up in its last 18 home games.
Statistical leaders
Alabama:
Passing: Bryce Young -- 3,584 yards, 38 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Brian Robinson Jr. -- 945 yards, 14 TD
Receiving: Jameson Williams -- 1,218 yards, 13 TD
Auburn:
Passing: Bo Nix -- 2,294 yards, 11 TD, 3 INT
Rushing: Tank Bigsby -- 940 yards, 10 TD
Receiving: Shedrick Jackson -- 495 yards, 1 TD
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Chuck Sommers
About the Author:
Chuck Sommers has camped outside of sportsbooks since he can remember, learning the tricks and nuances of the trade. He still has nightmares of betting $5,000 on the Raiders in the Tuck Rule game but has since turned that to 25 years of veteran handicapping greatness. You can find him mostly in the shadows at the Red Rock or Aliante casinos wondering if the over is cashing on any given Sunday.
